Buckle Up For a Volatile Week
571: FOMC, Big Tech Earnings, Crypto Resilience
Good morning guys. Hope you had a solid weekend.
Time to fight your demons and slay the Monday morning dragon. I am personally mainlining espresso and peppermint zyn at a Dunkin Donuts at 6am writing this and preparing myself for the fat workload I need to take on today.
Quick schedule for this week:
Today we will have a quick Monday post on need to follow news and market themes this week (some interesting shifts over the weekend)
Tomorrow morning is my refresh guide on How to Make Money Online. In this guide for paid subs I will walk you through how to sell with Shopify and other apps/websites step by step. You will be able to set up an online store after reading it. Will be very helpful if you review the original below before tomorrow. Best time to start making side income online was yesterday. Second best time is now.
Thursday we will revisit the week’s events. I might even go on one of my crazy rants
Make sure you hop on the Discord and X today to keep up with daily updates as the week goes by.
Let’s get into it.
Market Preview For The Week
Over the weekend there were some interesting little reversals and shifts that took place including a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil dumped and stock futures ripped on this news, with Bitcoin nailing a nice little pop as well. This week is likely going to be explosive on a few fronts with big earnings and the Fed poised to make a decision mid week.
Buckle up, could be some excellent opportunities to add some beaten down names.
The S&P 500's net profit margin is on track to surge to 15.7% for Q2 2026, the highest in data going back to 2009 (Kobeissi Letter)
Nvidia announced it will invest $1 billion in South Korean Naver’s AI project
Michael Saylor of MSTR 0.00%↑ announced this morning: Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $525 million, achieving 2.1 years of dividend coverage. As of 7/26/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserve and $3.75 billion in our USD Reserve
Crypto exchange BitMart has begun winding down its trading platform, gradually suspending new registrations, deposits and orders ahead of a full trading halt on Aug. 26 (TheBlock)
BNY Mellon plans to launch 24/7 tokenized U.S. Treasury settlement by 2027, with private blockchain pilots beginning by year-end (CoinBureau)
Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi has said the economy is gaining momentum, citing the lowest inflation rate among G7 countries (CoinTelegraph)
Remarks and other outlets are reporting that Kamala Harris might be preparing to run for President again in 2028
Defense beast Anduril is reportedly in talks to raise money at a valuation of around $100,000,000,000 (WhaleInsider)
Circle announced that the company has acquired fundamental assets from the IBM blockchain patent portfolio, including 680+ patent families and nearly 1,000 issued patents worldwide (bullish)
Tech Earnings
Big week for earnings on the heels of the INTC 0.00%↑ print, which crushed, but was swiftly sent to the depths of hell by Jim Cramer. He just couldn’t help himself.
My calls got absolutely decimated but we push on for more gains elsewhere.
MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑and HOOD 0.00%↑ on Wednesday should be big along with AMZN 0.00%↑ on Thursday.
I hate to say it, but these prints will likely exacerbate the current stutter we are watching in equities or pull us out of it, IF we can continue with the good news on the Iran front. To be honest I wouldn’t count on that given the constant flip flopping.
One thing I think that is worth remembering (especially if you are apeing options ahead of earnings) is that simply beating earnings estimates may not be enough this time around (as we saw with Intel).
After the runs we’ve had over the past year, Wall Street and investor expectations have risen dramatically (almost comically high).
Investors already assume these companies will post strong revenue and earnings growth, that’s kind of a given. The real question is whether management teams can convince Wall Street that the momentum is going to remain actually sustainable.
That’s a bit tougher to do in this climate.
I will be looking to add to my MSFT 0.00%↑ and ONDS 0.00%↑ positions this week.
ECB + Lagarde
Europe is dealing with more than a mass migration crisis and war in Ukraine.
One under the radar political theme worth watching this week (that I think us Americans ignore generally) is the future of European Central Bank and President Christine Lagarde.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have become increasingly volatile around the possibility that she announces plans to step down before her term officially expires next year in October. Polymarket odds right now sit at 23% that Lagarde is out this year.
The theory, highlighted by Jon Turek, who is on Substack as Jon Turek, is basically that Lagarde may prefer to announce her departure before France's presidential election next spring, which would allow current French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to have some greater influence over selecting her replacement.
You can check out the full article above.
With Marine Le Pen's National Rally leading in many current polls, the composition of France's next government could significantly change the balance of power surrounding one of the world's most important central banks. French business leaders now expect inflation to run at 2.5% over the next year which of course is going to add another layer of complexity for ECB policymakers moving into the latter half of 2026 and next year.
Anyways I know this stuff can be boring, but there are some new European political risks beginning to creep back onto the radar of investors we should pay attention to, especially if you have investment exposure.
We will continue to watch this trend closely.
Fed FOMC meeting
Fed week baby.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a volatile scene.
On Wednesday (paired with the big tech earnings I listed before) we have:
2:00 PM ET - FOMC Rate Decision & Policy Statement
2:30 PM ET - New Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference
Warsh’s speech is likely going to be the most market moving event of the week. Degenerates will be focused on his answers and context around the following big questions:
Whether the Fed still sees additional rate hikes this year
How policymakers view recent spike in oil prices
Inflation expectations for rest of year
Any details on labor market strength
Right now rate hike odds are at about 36%. That would be a pretty jarring event in my opinion and likely lead to some insta-dumping.
And for those unfamiliar there is no updated dot plot.
If you have no clue what that is, every few meetings, each Fed official anonymously places a dot on a chart showing where they think interest rates should be at the end of this year, next year, and beyond that.
This week we don’t have it. So it is likely every word in the statement and Warsh's press conference will carry more weight than usual.
Then Thursday we also get Q2 Advance GDP data and Core PCE Inflation which will likely shape how our bags perform through week end into the beginning of August.
We will get into it on Thursday, but the bullish tingle I feel in my plums about crypto is still there. They might be ready to take to the farmer’s market soon but let’s focus on equities this week and see how it all shapes up.
Enjoy the week and I will see you guys tomorrow for the deep dive on e commerce and making money online. Pumped to drop this one since I have some super recent examples of businesses I am working on right now.
Godspeed.
Andy
Trade on Polymarket
Disclaimer - None of this is meant to be formal financial advice, I am a former corporate sales/trading guy with a monkey brain who writes about my own opinions each week. Do your own research before investing or trading and never make decisions that are contrary to your own personal risk tolerance.