Brink Of World War III

224: Part 1 - Israel, Global Economy, Russia and China

I want to preface this post with a quick note. In the current climate, rational thought, critical thinking, and having a realist approach is considered “radical” or “extremist”. Bi Partisan politics has people on both sides of the aisle afraid or reluctant to form their own viewpoints — even on matters of personal safety, survival, or life and death.

As I’ve said before — we’re at the point in culture and society where wokeness or aversion to showing strength, logic, or aggression literally gets people killed. 

So many want to just have everything be sunshine and rainbows. Don’t be in this camp.

Since covid, a new brand of “deniers” and “copers” have been born. These people think everything’s fine. They think anyone who sheds light on the truth is crazy or a conspiracy theory. They think our government has our best interest at heart. They hate traditional values that formed nations and entire civilizations like strength, initiative, decisiveness, objective thinking, logic, and nationalism.

Sometimes they lash out aggressively — either online or in person when you show that you don’t just drink the mainstream approved kool aid or corporate approved talking points, and choose instead to call things like they are.

Like there are only two genders.

Or Covid was a bioweapon man made in a lab.

Or looting and shoplifting is bad.

Or our country needs an operating functional border to be safe.

Or the Chinese are our number one geopolitical foe (that’s XenoPhobiC!!!!!!!) 

This is normal from a psychology perspective. People for the most part don’t feel ready when life gets real or blatantly contradicts their previously held belief system. They don’t understand how to look at things critically and form a realistic point of view.

They’ve now been told for years to just assume the best in people and that their tele-tubby worldview where everyone gets along, evil doesn’t exist, and force is a negative thing is reflective of actual reality. Technology, easy access to dopamine, the USA’s dominance for years, and modern “feel good” narratives have all amplified this disconnect from the rawness of the modern world.

There’s a reason that guy shot and murdered that man!

They’re looting and burning a community because of the system!

The US would never get dragged into a World War, we’re too powerful!

Strong and capable men are toxic! Its better to be frail and intellectual!

Force is never the answer! Peace and words are the solution!

Nobody should own guns! When would you ever need to use them!?

So — they lash out — out of fear and insecurity — since they know they’re utterly underprepared to operate in a world where all of their beliefs are wrong.

Nobody likes to feel like they aren’t in the know or don’t know what’s going on.  Nowadays weak men (mostly) think it’s fashionable or cool to downplay serious world events and call those who attempt to give realist takes crazy or paranoid — this no doubt stems from their own underlying personal sense of inadequacy, insecurity, and lack of knowledge on the way things work in the world.

It’s very crabs in the bucket mentality:

“ThiS GuY is An AlArmist!!!!! HE DoEsn’T KnOW wHaT’s GoiNG to HapPEn BetTer ThAn Me!!!!!”

My track record evidenced in Arb Letter says otherwise — I’ve been keeping people apprised of what’s actually going on now for a year. I don;t plan on stopping anytime soon.

You don’t get to just show up for your 9-5 office job, become fat and lazy, talk about Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, take a smug approach to inconvenient reality or anyone trying to keep people in the know, drive home obliviously listening to mainstream or far left drivel, emotionally post online about all the racists, extremists, conspiracy theorists, and alarmists who are speaking to the concerning developments around us, pound beers, go to bed and then do it all again anymore.

Reality will kick in — regardless of if you’re ready for it. You can cry out or cope like a child throwing a tantrum or you can cowboy up and take stock of where we are and what you should be doing to get ready for various outcomes.

Our way of life is going to change now — just as it did with Covid.

Things are not going to go back to “normal”.

Ignoring the troubling trends we are seeing is the worst thing you can do.

The world is changing quickly — nation states are choosing sides and our enemies are aligning to challenge our dominance globally. We are living in a highly unstable world now.

Most of my calls here at Arb Letter since I started writing have come true. 

• Foreign relations have severely deteriorated under Biden

• Another conflict front has opened in Israel 

• We are edging closer and closer to WWIII

• Domestic risk is skyrocketing in the US for a range of threats 

• The global economy is going to suffer even more 

I dont share this as a victory lap or to brag — I share it because it’s incredibly frustrating to constantly be in the minority opinion camp on things that are rather straightforward and rational if you shrug off the “woke” or “tele-tubby” lense that everything is fine.

All of this was relatively predictable.

Being emotional or complaining or staying ignorant doesn’t change the fact these things are happening.

You don’t get to just check out of this. 

It will have ramifications on the world and all of us here in the US. 

It’s time to do a gut check — cast aside any petty political stubbornness you have and focus on what’s happening right in front of your own eyes — let that be your guiding aid.

People have called us crazy or extremist for predicting that we will in fact be entering a global conflict that could lead to World War III.

As usual — they’re blatantly wrong — despite their attempts to paint people who present the facts as “looney” or “alarmist, things are trending towards a multi front global conflict that could cost many lives and lead to chaos within our own country.

Today’s post will be broken out into two pieces — the first (below) will be free for all subscribers as I feel it’s important to update everyone on critical events. Part 2 tomorrow will focus exclusively on how this raises threat levels inside the US — for our security, economy, and personal safety.

Israel Under Attack

Shortly after the horrendous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Putin made his move on Ukraine. The media dropped the covid coverage like a hot potato for this new and enticing war in Eastern Europe.  While it’s difficult to say what’s going on for certain or where this conflict officially stands one things for sure — the Russians can outlast the Ukrainians without substantial financial support.

Saturday morning - a new front opened up again in the Middle East. Hamas and affiliated groups struck all across Israel with decent strength and caught the IDF completely by surprise attacking all over the country with overwhelming pockets of militants. The attack was reportedly sudden and pretty enveloping despite the obvious force size difference between Hamas and Israel. The Hamas groups utilized technicals (trucks with heavy guns) and motorbikes to spread out quickly.

The Hamas militants struck by land air and sea. Para gliders (below), something straight out of a James Bond movie, overwhelmed regions across southern Israel — militants we now know, killed over 250 rave goers at an international EDM festival. Women were raped, people were tied up and executed with grenades and small arms fire, and many were kidnapped and taken directly back to Gaza as hostages.

Attack boats peppered the coast of Israel and land groups moved into the country at all angles — foot soldiers, trucks, motorbikes, and paratroopers fell inside Israeli territory and began a wanton wave of violence against civilians and military personnel alike.

Women were kidnapped, raped, and taken by to the Gaza Strip. Children and families were gunned down, and many isolated units of IDF soldiers were killed. Videos depicted the gross desecration of corpses, many of them women, who were being spat on and stepped on.

A para glider used by Hamas to insert militants by air into Southern Israel

Social media erupted with Black Hawk Down -esque pictures and videos of corpses being dragged in streets, women being beaten and taken captive, and videos showing widespread attacks by Hamas on civilians. 

Israeli intelligence (Mossad) apparently had no heads up this was in the cards. Completely blindsided. (More on this later). This stands out as one of the largest questions about the development — how did they miss it?

This transgression and the coming updates we will see in the region move us further to World War 3. There are now two fronts - Ukraine, Israel/Middle East, and potentially soon - China and Taiwan. 

We’re fast approaching people. 

Now look - depending on where you’re from and what you believe you may not see Israel as innocent in this matter. I’m not here to tell you what to believe or who to side with - but I have my own thoughts. They largely are rooted in:

• A realist global view 

• the US impacts because of it

• A general moral view re: violence 

The acts carried out by Hamas were despicable and reminiscent of some of the worst theaters of war and conflict in the 20th century — rape, torture, kidnapping, killing civilians, and desecrating bodies. To me that’s inexcusable — even if you do posit that Israel has committed atrocities in Gaza (if you’re well read you know this is true — though maybe not to this extent).

What Hamas did was unusually barbaric and it impacted international citizens and Israeli civilians not just military personel. You’re free to feel that Israel is the occupier, they deserved it, etc. It’s not my place to really say since I’m not Israeli or Palestinian. The videos and images of dead Palestinian civilians and children are horrific — I won’t deny that — but this is war.

Both sides have been killing each other longer than most of us have been alive.  

But again — as far as I’m concerned when you do what Hamas did yesterday — expect serious retaliation, whether or not you think it is justified because of your beliefs.

I’m focused more on how this ripples into global markets, geopolitics, and current conflicts around the world. What happens to Israel has more an impact on me as an American than what happens to Palestine — and as hard as that may be to understand for those who are Pro Palestinian — there’s always two sides to a conflict.

Geopolitically — Israel’s well being ways heavily on the US.

By extension I care what happens to Israel. It doesn’t mean I don’t feel immense sorrow when I see innocent Palestinians murdered but at a certain point lines have to be drawn based on where you live and what is at stake for YOUR people and COUNTRY.

Our enemies are becoming more active and emboldened by the hour.

“From this hour on, we announce that any targeting of civilian homes without advanced warning will be met regrettably with the execution of one of the enemy civilian hostages we hold, and we will be forced to broadcast this”

—Abu Obaida, the spokesman for Hamas's military wing, Al-Qassam Brigades

“We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly”

—Israel's Defense Minister

Geo-politcial Implications

As Israel continues to shell Gaza, execute air strikes, and begin to arrange troops for a potential ground move into Gaza, the world is watching closely to see how this impacts larger nation states.

Insider Paper on Twitter noted today that according to Punchbowl — Biden admin officials told US Senators to prepare their constituents for a long war in Israel and the Gaza Strip, indicating that U.S. support — both tangible & political — will be necessary in the coming weeks.

We’ve now learned through the WSJ that Iran played a direct role in planing, financing, and supporting this attack which should be a no brainer given the countries allegiances and anti western sentiment. Not super surprising considering the Biden Regime literally unfroze $6B in Iranian capital just a few weeks ago.

Disregard the idiots online saying that money “can’t” be used for military purposes — they live in a snow globe where it rains sugar. nobody is mean, people pay in kisses, and everyone has free healthcare.

Doesn’t get more clear what Iran’s sentiment is than constantly chanting death to America whenever you get the chance.

Iran is aligned with Russia and North Korea and to some extent China. Our enemies are working together in order to weaken us on the global stage and counteract our influence in key regions. The Taliban, now armed with leftover US military gear that Joe Biden generously gave to them, aims to invade Israel from the East and said yesterday, "If other countries give us passage, we will conquer Jerusalem." Hezbollah has allegedly begun mobilizing thousands of fighters on the border of Israel.

There are reports that Russian officials are relishing in the outcome that took place in Israel. Zelensky is now saying that Putin is behind the Hamas attack on Israel.

While we can’t be sure what is true and what isn’t now is the time to pay close attention to any further escalations or developments.

Keep your eyes on Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, and other actors as they indicate which side they will choose in the coming days.

China is likely licking their lips at the moment given the chaos abroad that now has the US militaries full attention. A move on Taiwan soon or in the coming months ahead of a pivotal US election would be an absolute cluster for US strategists to deal with as the US does not have the capability to fight a war or give support on three separate fronts — Eastern Europe, The Middle East, and the Asia Pacific Theater.

It’s a scary time to be blunt.

We are entering unknown territory on the geopolitical front and it can be difficult to forecast what might come next in this chain reaction.

One thing is for certain — weak foreign policy, slowing deterrence, and a lack of adequate response from the US is emboldening our enemies. They get to sit and wait to see what our next move is as more fronts open up globally to challenge a decades long hegemony.

There’s no question that to some extent Iran was involved in this operation. The attacks were too well organized, sophisticated, and effective.

That or it’s another 9/11 type intelligence “failure” and the Israelis wanted the public to support a full blown final purge of Gaza (possible) or further other goals we are not privy too that impact the way things are trending on the global stage.

Economic Implications

The events in Israel will stress the already teetering global economy even further. Defense stocks sky rocketed today including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and others.

If you’ve been subscribed to Arb Letter premium you’d know we covered these months ago — pointing to the upside potential during a situation exactly like this.

Outside single names — I like the PPA 0.00%↑ and ITA 0.00%↑ — I don’t think these are too rich as these levels despite being near ATHs. Conflict is going to become very familiar in the coming months — the expansion of a new front near China/Taiwan would send these names to the moon overnight.

We are also seeing a range of interesting and noteworthy developments when it comes to markets and economies — the US market as a whole has held up in trading today despite the public holiday and fear.

Israel's central bank announced that it is set to sell $30 billion of US Dollars to support the Israeli shekel — Israeli markets are down in the last 48 hours in the aftermath of the initial attack.

Zerohedge has also pointed out the alarming acceleration of national debt that is building with each and every day in the US.

We've added $513 billion in total debt over the past 18 days to an all time high $33.513 trillion — more and more of our enemies and countries that are loyal to them will begin to take advantage of this fact — attempting to draw us into conflicts in different regions and continue to drain our resources, money, and bandwith.

The American people will continue to suffer as costs skyrocket, the dollar remains volatile, and average people struggle to keep up with the costs of everyday life. A War would amplify this — albeit we could see more money printing start again. This would entrench inflation even further and create an absolute cluster for the Fed.

Who knows how risk on assets like crypto or tech stocks will react in the coming weeks but this transgression will surely begin to influence asset valuations as the Fed struggles to form a clear strategy potentially with a global war brewing right under their noses.

“Palestine is not Ukraine. If America intervenes directly, all American locations in the region will become legitimate targets of the resistance axis and will face our attacks. And on this day there will be no red line left."

—Hezbollah

We are already beginning to see where this event could pose problematic for us in the United States. There are high populations of Palestinians and sympathetic groups in the United States — more so potentially now given the loose southern border policies the Biden Regime has insisted on standing by. It’s not racist or xenophobic to point these out — we are far past the time to use lazy labels like that to virtue signal. These are facts.

This reality has the potential to impact domestic production, operations, and security (more on that tomorrow).

What happens if the US gets more involved in this war?

Many are beginning to downplay various reports that indicate this terrible event could leak onto US soil.

You really think it’s far fetched that terror attacks or acts of violence break out in our own country due to who we support in this conflict? What if that happens AND we get a resurgence of political violence ahead of the next election?

At a recent Hamas celebration rally in Times Square organized by US far-left groups and socialists & Palestinian nationalists, a speaker talked about the Islamist attacks that killed hundreds of Israelis—mostly civilians and the crowd cheered as they participated in a an aggressive and hostile stand off with pro Israel protestors as well.

As I’ve said before — this is not a unified country anymore — it’s a melting pot of different groups and cultures that all seemingly support different things and the security of the country is getting worse as geopolitical tensions around the globe escalate.

Tomorrow’s piece will focus on the risks that are now elevated here at home in the US and in allied countries as a result of this new front that has been opened. If you’re up to it join thousands of paid subscribers to get Part 2 and the hundreds of deep dives I put out weekly on geopolitics and macroeconomics.

It saddens me to see such violence from both sides and I do hope things can more or less settle out soon but to be frank I don’t expect that in the slightest.

Things are far too gone at this point.

It’s time to get sharp, follow news sources you trust, and prepare. The world is not the same place it was even 3 years ago.

Talk to yall tomorrow

Andy