Morning all.
Big news today that is going to shape markets into end of year AND the opportunities we have to print.
Quick update this morning for paid subs before the weekend considering jobs data just dropped.
The August BLS report came in ugly: only 22K jobs added (vs ~75K expected) and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021.
June was revised down to a loss, July barely better, and the trend is clear the labor market is stalling out. Which we reiterated multiple times over the last several months. You don’t cooked up “ofFiciAL” data to know that it’s all a fugazi.
Just talk to people in your network, friends, family — it’s grim out there.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM / 3.7% YoY, but that’s not enough to offset the slowdown in hiring. Goods-producing sectors (manufacturing, construction) are dragging, while healthcare and social assistance are the only bright spots.
This all but guarantees a 25 bps cut and opens the door to a 50bps cut on 17 Sep 2025. It also likely means we could get multiple cuts into year end.
What’s this mean for a bunch of size lords looking to print into year end?
It means we’re probably going to pump in the short to medium term despite the clear games being played in markets this morning. People want entries because they know what is coming.
But Andy! WHAT is going to pump?
Let’s get straight into it.
If you’re bullish, I’d consider adding today as opposed to waiting until next week. Traders are already beginning to price this in. They know what is coming.
That’s my take, do what you’d like. I personally want to be squared away BEFORE a potential cut and before every normie and bot is apeing back into retail trading apps. The money printing is inescapable.
Here’s a good reference for you to understand how assets react to rate cuts historically and what is probably going to run. We will talk about what I am buying in a moment.