Are You Smart or Dumb Money in 2025?
389: Liberation Day, Reciprocal Tariff Risks, and Hedge Fund Insider Moves
Good morning all - market volatility is front and center for most of us as stocks continue to crater lower, gold continues it’s parabolic rise, crypto looks shakey, and the Trump admin continues to add fuel to fire in the form of reciprocal tariffs. To make matters worse early this morning Taiwan said it had detected 19 Chinese warships and what’s known as the Shandong aircraft carrier group in the waters close to the island nation. These are wild times.
Today we’re talking markets and what happens next though.
In March close to 3.5 Trillion in market cap evaporated from the S&P 500. Bitcoin is down to the low 80’s range again and Ethereum is ranging below $1,900. Gold continues to make new all time highs. There are still some wild plays to be had in the chaos — Newsmax, $NMAX, ripped from $10.00 to nearly $98.00 in 1 day of trading after it’s IPO.
It is an incredibly uncertain time in markets right now — people are confused on what to do with their money, wondering if we are going to collapse lower in the coming weeks and fall into a sustained bear market.
This week only gets crazier.
President Trump is set to announce new tariffs on April 2 (Wednesday) — a day that has been dubbed "Liberation Day” in which reciprocal tariffs plans aimed at addressing existing trade disparities will be ramped up. This will induce new volatility — aggressive and sustained tariffs have the capacity to raise inflation and critically slow economic growth.
On top of tariffs we’ve got a complex macroeconomic landscape before us with a variety of factors that continue to put pressure on markets.
There’s a lot to keep up with, couple major things that should be on your radar:
The S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarter when compared to the rest of the world since the 1980s (Bloomberg)
The Nasdaq is down 11% YTD
Credit markets are giving interesting signs that we may have some sort of major event on the horizon — the cost of protection in the event of bankruptcies or defaults on major companies is growing
According to Bloomberg data - over 6M Americans are behind on their mortgage Payments
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that if the US doesn't get its debt under control, the dollar risks losing its reserve status to Bitcoin
China, Japan, and South Korea are set to unite in response against President Trump’s tariffs
According to a University of Michigan survey released Friday, consumer sentiment is continuing to deteriorate
The Dollar General DG 0.00%↑ , CEO has said that consumers 'only have enough money for basic essentials (Unusual Whales)
About 50% of parents still financially support at least one of their adult children over the age of 18, according to a recent report from Savings.com.
To be blunt — investors, institutions, money managers, and everyday people are getting worried. Net worths are dropping right now, the job market is wobbly at best, inflation is lingering, and it seems every day more and more of us are convinced that the next big move might be even lower for longer across the board.
While my long term view is optimistic we are entering a weird period in which very few likely know what is coming next — on top of that, the avenues to “make it” are narrowing with the rapid development of AI, automation, high costs, and a faltering number of roles across various industries for young people.
Today we’re going to cover several crucial themes for market participants in 2025:
Investor behavior - what are hedge funds, institutions, and the wealthy doing with their money right now. What are they buying and what are they selling?
What assets are outperforming right now — which ones historically outperform in similar environments
What to expect for the remainder of 2025 and steps you can take to protect your net worth and take advantage of this environment (important since the majority of people I see online are not thinking about these conditions the right way)
If you are rattled by the market’s volatility this year, worried about keeping up with the cost of living, or trying to figure out what moves to make in the coming month’s today’s guide will provide some much needed data and clarity. The truth is we don’t know what lies around the bend, we can only look to available signs and data to make an informed guess and be proactive in how we protect our capital.
The reality of the macro environment globally right now is that more separation is taking place between those who are preserving capital/or positioning for the rest of the year and those who are getting put into an increasingly more hopeless position due to market fluctuations, inflation, and allowing emotions to guide their decisions.
One group is remaining calm and making appropriate adjustments where necessary and one group is panicking like the world is ending making hyper emotional knee jerks reactions (these decisions will compound if things get worse).
The masses check out of markets when they aren’t in up only mode — this is a critical mistake. The majority of opportunities that end up defining who comes out on top when the dust settles present themselves in times of chop, volatility, and uncertainty.
We’ve got quite a bit to cover today and not a ton of time before the big show later this week so let’s get into it.
Investor & Smart Money Behavior
The question isn’t just “what’s happening” — it’s “what are the people who win in these environments doing right now?”