Are You Prepared for Election Season?
319: Comprehensive Election Forecast & Security Overview
Good morning — this morning we launched an exciting edition of the Risk On Podcast featuring Adam Kobeissi of the Kobeissi Letter. If you’re unfamiliar — Adam is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of The Kobeissi Letter, a leading commentary on global capital markets. What began as a small, free Sunday report quickly gained traction, with Adam’s market insights proving to be both timely and profitable. By 2017, as he was accepted to the Ross School of Business, Adam turned The Kobeissi Letter into a full-fledged business, attracting subscribers ranging from beginners to hedge funds and banks, and becoming a widely followed market voice.
Since then, his commentary has been featured on major media outlets like CNBC, FoxBusiness, and CNN. We will be releasing the episode tomorrow.
This interview will be primarily focused on capital markets, so if you want your weekly dose of markets commentary and analysis make sure to check it out after today’s post.
Today’s post is an important one for all Americans.
Today we are going to walk through a large set of my formal predictions for the next 6 months in the US related to the election, as well as my major predictions on the security front.
As the 2024 elections approach, tensions both domestically and internationally are escalating. A combination of political dissatisfaction, economic pressures, and ongoing global conflicts has created a volatile atmosphere, increasing the potential for unrest.
One thing that’s obvious to anyone factoring in what’s happened over the last several years, is that the capacity for political violence and unrest is at all time highs given the partisan political environment in the US and a race, that both sides consider to be the end all be all of the country (and it may very well be just that). This environment is worse due to the complete lack of border policy and crime.
On one hand there is an extremely high risk of severe social unrest akin to the riots of 2019/2020/2021 in the next few months. Philadelphia looked like a post apocalyptic city this weekend.
People often make the mistake of thinking this kind of thing can’t happen near them — as a reminder — there were approximately 8,700 protests that took place in 68 major cities and counties between May 25th and July 31st, 2020.
On the other hand — there is the ever growing threat of terrorism, violent crime, or other events breaking out across the country.
This post won’t be so much about actual politics — but about the side effects we can all expect as a result of what’s occurring and my formal predictions on what is to come. That being said I think Bill Ackman summed up the race well in this post on X this weekend. To me the choice is evident when you factor in all of the policies that have been implemented in the past 4 years and the repercussions they have had in this country.
I’m going to stop wasting time trying to get people to see the light. Sides have been chosen, you either get it or you don’t. You can either cast aside the emotional aspect of this election or you can’t. Unfortunately — I see either outcome resulting in some pretty significant events and changes in this country and today we will lay all of that out.
In today’s post we will discuss and cover the following:
A quick review of how the race is going
My formal predictions on who wins and what comes in the next few months
What you can expect in either outcome
A review of the top threats domestically during this election
Precautions and considerations to take note of moving forward
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most divisive in recent memory. With public confidence in the electoral system already diminished, there are widespread concerns about the potential for political violence no matter who wins.
Recent polls suggest that over two-thirds of Americans are worried about the risk of election-related unrest, regardless of which party prevails. Extremist factions on both sides of the political spectrum have demonstrated a willingness to resort to violence to express their discontent, adding to the volatile nature of this election cycle.
Americans are dreadfully unprepared for how hot this could get leading up to and immediately after the election. If it really kicks off — cities and towns will be impacted the same. Red and blue zones are at risk. Today I want to paint an accurate picture of the events that could transpire leading up to the election so nothings surprises you. We have a track record of calling these events accurately in Arb Letter — as usual your best tool in preparing for this shifting landscape in the US is information.
Let’s start with a review of where this election stands.
The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground. I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have.
My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government. To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.
– Thomas Jefferson