Are We Going To War With Iran?
528: Blue Owl Redemptions Halted, Goldman CEO Owns Bitcoin
Good morning kings.
Smells like war might be on the horizon again.
We really just can’t have nice things post Covid.
Over the past two weeks or so signs and indications that we may be taking military action against Iran have been beginning to strengthen. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the largest build up since the 2003 Iraq invasion, with other outlets saying it’s the largest since 9/11.
President Trump said this week in an address “We settled 8 wars and I think a ninth is to come..." but he also said that we will find out in about 10 days about a potential deal with Iran.
So what is everyone saying about that likelihood of strikes?
Depends on who you ask.
Odds on Polymarket currently sit at a 69% chance that we strike by June 30th, with a 27% chance by February 28th. CNN is reporting the US is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend.
Mahdi Mohammadi, advisor to the chairman of the Iranian parliament said today, "The threat against Iran has reached an unprecedented level, or more precisely, the US wants us to think it has. In return, Iran has raised the threat against the US to an unprecedented level. The stage is now set for a historic confrontation. I don't know about the US, but in Iran, there is no reason to retreat."
OSINT Defender on X reported this morning that “A U.S. Air Force C-32B Gatekeeper with Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) landed earlier today in Tel Aviv, Israel. The C-32B has been associated with the 150th Special Operations Squadron out of Joint Base McGuire, and is used to respond to government crisis response activities and support CIA Special Activities.”.
Smells like this is imminent……
The one thing that is undeniable and probably has the “nothing ever happens” crowd a little bit nervous is that the US military has in fact been massing forces in Europe, the Middle East, and close to Iran.
On the naval side, USS Abraham Lincoln is already operating in or near the Arabian Sea, while USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group are moving east from the Atlantic, positioning the U.S. toward a two-carrier posture tied to CENTCOM. That alone represents a meaningful escalation in capability in the area and an effort at deterrence.
In the air, open source flight tracking (the latest OSINT mania on X) has shown a sustained surge of U.S. military aircraft flowing toward the region over the past several days. The standout detail isn’t just fighters, it’s the volume of KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers.
For those that don’t know these are refueling tankers that stick out the weird looking tube for fighters and other aircraft to link to and refuel mid flight. Tankers are the enabling layer for long range strike, persistent air patrols, and rapid escalation.
You don’t move that many unless you’re expanding real operational options.
If you really want to get schizo on this fine Thursday, there’s a 4Chan prophecy by an anonymous poster claiming that Israel is going to use tactical nukes on Iran to take out leadership and end this once and for all.
Real Sum of All Fears type stuff lol.
Seems a little out there but who knows these days. The Trump admin doesn’t gain anything from an invasion or drawn out conflict in Iran.
My bet is that if anything happens, it will be like the Operation Midnight Hammer raids last year. And remember the OSINT flight tracker data everyone loves so much can be unreliable, we know for Midnight Hammer US officials literally faked us out with bombers that were heading West around the same time the strike package made their actual move on Iran.
The opening phase would probably focus on precision strikes against missile sites, air defenses, command nodes, and parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to limit any capacity for true retaliation.
Aircraft carriers, long range bombers, cruise missiles, and stealth aircraft would do most of the work, with heavy reliance on refueling and stand off weapons. Iran would almost certainly respond asymmetrically, through missiles, drones, or proxy forces in the region, rather than a direct conventional fight (since they would get MURKED even harder if they did this).
The scale could be bigger and there’s always a chance that something goes seriously wrong:
Escalation by Israel (nuclear, conventional)
USS Liberty orGulf of Tonkin type event
Russia/China proxy or direct involvement
US casualties/downed aircraft
Iran strikes Israel
Etc.
Markets are not liking all of this uncertainty so for now we have to wait and see what comes of this posturing.
Once this monkey is off our back hopefully we gain clarity on the rest of the year.
"The US decision regarding Iran has already been made. The ships are not arriving in the area only because the weather is pleasant at this time of year”
— Senator Lindsey Graham, in interview with Sky News Arabia
Markets & Crypto
Yes stocks continue to chop, honestly, reminds me of the time period when we started tariffs and it was up and down and up and down non stop.
Iran is likely muddying the short term view (though I think crypto has already priced in a strike at this point).
Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims fell to roughly 206,000, down sharply from the prior week and below expectations. The four week moving average also edged lower, reinforcing a potential picture of a labor market that’s still somehow being held together (for now).
Liquidity is also starting to become a major focus for many this week.
According to the Financial Times, Blue Owl, a major asset manager, has permanently stopped allowing investors to redeem (withdraw) their money from their Blue Owl Credit Private Fund (OBDC II) that was marketed to retail investors. The key word of course being permanently.
Sounds like a sketchy crypto exchange blow up.
This obviously highlights emerging liquidity risks in the $3T private credit market.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, economist and former CEO/co-CIO of PIMCO said on X:
Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007?
This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail debt fund.” There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in advanced (not developing) markets that has gone too far overall (short answer: yes), to the approaches being taken by specific firms (lots of differences, yet subject to the “market for lemons” risk). There’s also the “elephant in the room” question regarding much larger systemic risks (nowhere near the magnitude of those which fueled the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, but a significant – and necessary – valuation hit is looming for specific assets).
Let’s be clear, they’re not just pausing withdrawals temporarily, they’re shutting down redemptions for good.
Even without a 2008 style armageddon crisis (that some are convinced is coming), tighter liquidity, forced repricing, and a slow bleed of risk appetite could end up pressuring credit spreads, equities tied to financial leverage, and any asset class that relies on the assumption of easy exits.
On other news:
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei declined to hold hands during a group photo at the India AI Impact Summit (Insider Paper)
CoStar Group has conducted another round of layoffs (MacroEdge)
DoorDash DASH 0.00%↑ just reported the largest jump in orders ever with total orders of about 903M which is +32% YoY (FiscalAI)
Amazon AMZN 0.00%↑ has now officially surpassed Walmart as the world's largest company by revenue, reporting $716.9 billion in 2025 sales (Kobeissi Letter)
US pending home sales have hit a record low
Only thing I am really watching closely right now (aside from adding AMZN) is defense.
While we’ve printed on a number of names in the space already, it is probably a good time to reexamine some defense and oil plays with the situation in the Middle East.
Some of the names softened a bit before this latest batch of Iran headlines and might be worth looking into.
Particularly KTOS 0.00%↑ . I am adding more this week. I continue to build a PPA 0.00%↑ long as well.
Now is as good a time as ever to re-read our defense paid posts if you have missed them. LMT 0.00%↑ was $448 when we covered it in the beginning of 2025.
If you’re watching oil USO 0.00%↑ and UCO 0.00%↑ are easy plays to watch into the weekend.
We will talk through refreshed picks next week.
Crypto
It’s been a boring two weeks in crypto for the most part. Kind of wild to watch my portfolio basically not move at all.
If the market is a shipwreck in the middle of the ocean (with barely any survivors) and bodies floating around on timber and junk, the big institutional sharks are sniffing around as the Clarity Act remains in limbo.
The Crypto Clarity Act is still in play, but stalled in the Senate.
It passed the House and is designed to finally define U.S. crypto regulation, clarifying SEC vs. CFTC authority and setting rules for exchanges, stablecoins, and parts of DeFi. The framework is agreed on but the hang up is stablecoins. I think this hopefully passes by late Spring of this year, and some politicians are estimating it might happen before the end of April.
It would be a welcomed change of sentiment for the markets.
In other news the institutional side continues to look bullish.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon divulged that he actually holds some Bitcoin after a historically adverse viewpoint. He also recently said, “We obviously are doing a bunch of things around digitization and tokenization”.
Recent filings also show investment vehicles linked to Abu Dhabi sovereign capital increasing their exposure to Bitcoin through regulated ETFs, even during this market weakness. Funds connected to entities like Mubadala and Al Warda have added meaningfully to their positions, taking total exposure into the billion dollar range.
Bitfinex is also reporting Bitcoin whales added bout 200,000 $BTC in the last 30 days.
The dip is being bought, but the question now is when are we going to get a meaningful rebound?
The United Arab Emirates has a Bitcoin mining collaboration with Citadel. According to BlockBeats, data from Arkham reveals that the UAE has mined Bitcoin worth $453.6 million (Binance)
The CME Group is set to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options trading on May 29th (WatcherGuru)
AAVE reached over $1 billion in RWA deposits, they are the first lending protocol to do so
Société Générale has expanded its euro stablecoin EUR CoinVertible to the XRP Ledger (CoinTelegraph)
Enso has launched live production deployments of cross‑chain minting and execution flows using Chainlink’s CCIP (Bitcoin.com)
This is a boring phase of crypto no doubt. I wouldn’t expect a full blown dump on any escalation in Iran but if we do get a messier conflict and equities roll over hard, that could spread and drag us to the low $60,000s.
If you’re somehow drowning in capital right now and want something to add, I still think BTC/ETH should be the focus with DCA buys.
Yes the institutional updates are bullish long term for LINK, AAVE, AVAX, and others, but you simply cannot expect them to randomly rally and decouple with the broader sentiment right now.
Chances are if you ape them here (which ARE solid levels long term) you are going to have to hold for some time. Not a bad thing, but just be aware of that. You also have a lot of the mindshare for alts/meme coins being taken right now by the insane surge in prediction markets plays.
Good thing to keep in mind for the time being.
Sometime the best move is to simply research, make your watchlists, and remain patient for a sustained change in sentiment and market conditions.
Quick one today, if we do get a major happening tomorrow or this weekend we will drop an immediate post on markets and the likely plays we can expect next week.
New episode of Risk On next week. If you guys want to join the Discord you can do so HERE.
Make sure to check out Instagram, high likelihood I drop some banger defense montages.
Godspeed
Andy
Is there a single thing we stand to gain from attacking Iran
"Israel is going to use tactical nukes on Israel".
This should be interesting🤣🎇