Are Markets Ready to Rip?
367: California Fire Looting, Real Estate Pain, Crypto Recaps
Morning all.
Moving forward we’re done sending out posts on Mondays — the engagement is absurdly low and I’ve done it enough times now to know it’s just not worth the effort. Folks are probably still getting caught up at work in the morning or distracted by the week ahead — not a big deal.
Tuesdays and Thursdays will be our targets with Wednesdays set aside for Risk On.
New episode of Risk On drops Wednesday.
Let’s talk about what to look for this week and some updates from the last several days as we hit the mid point of January.
Crypto & Equities
If you guys missed our paid post yesterday it incorporated a poll I ran on Instagram that gauged crypto sentiment and tried to identify which alt coins and meme coins people are most on bullish on at the moment. It was a good gut check to see how the psychology of people is with the flat market right now.
Other recent crypto posts linked below for those interested:
In yesterday’s post I talk through the most popular alts and memes respondents shared, what percentage of folks see Bitcoin surpassing $120,000 this year, and more (Polymarket is still showing a 80% chance of another ATH by June).
In that post I mentioned that we are likely going to see some positive price action around the inauguration as the sentiment and vibes should improve as Trump takes the reins. The Washington Post reported yesterday that Trump is expected to issue executive orders related to crypto policies on his first day in office. Rumors also surfaced online yesterday that crypto/tech figures will be present at his inauguration as well.
Our boy Trader Mayne posted a $DXY chart as well that might indicate a local top — which would definitely mark some sort of local bottom for crypto. This paired with inauguration vibes could definitely get us reversing higher soon.
Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2024 is scheduled to be released this week which should be top of mind for Wall Street and traders. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the data this morning, January 14, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, providing insights into inflation at the wholesale level. This release is particularly significant as it offers an early indication of inflation trends, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Yesterday was a fairly flat day:
The Dow rose 0.9%, adding 358.67 points to close at 42,297.12, supported by strength in energy and healthcare sectors.
The Nasdaq declined 0.4%, falling 73.53 points to finish at 19,088.10, weighed down by losses in major tech stocks.
Rising oil prices drove gains for companies in the energy sector, with notable increases in stocks like Exxon Mobil and Valero Energy.
Shares of Big Tech companies underperformed, with Nvidia ($NVDA) dropping 2%, and Apple ($AAPL) and Meta Platforms ($META) each falling around 1%.
Individual Stock Performances:
$NVDA: Nvidia declined by 2%, reflecting continued challenges in sustaining its breakout momentum
$MRNA: Moderna's stock tumbled 16.8% after the company issued a revenue forecast that disappointed investors plus it’s tough to continue god pumps with no China Virus
$LULU: Lululemon Athletica rose 1.4%, buoyed by raised earnings and revenue forecasts attributed to strong holiday sales last year
Treasury Yields climbed higher as investors prepared for upcoming inflation reports, signaling expectations of continued economic uncertainty.
Chinese officials are reportedly in preliminary talks about selling TikTok's U.S. operations/business to Elon Musk
Real Estate Update
I was doing some home browsing just to see the state of things and I have to be honest, it is depressing. Part of it is where I live (Northeast) but one thing I’ve noticed is that there’s just literally ZERO value. Not to mention if you check the historical charts on Zillow or other apps it’s hilarious — you’ll get homes that are $1.1M that were $600K or $700K in 2020.
Truly a testament to not only the ridiculousness of the housing market right now but also the money that our government and the Fed printed out of thin air that made every dollar you hold worth that much less.
It sucks because normally I’d be able to buy something pretty nice — but with current rates and supply it’s trash. Cash is honestly the way to go if you can right now. Back to the salt mines for now.
While I’m no real estate expert — here’s a quick overview of what many say we can expect in 2025:
Residential Real Estate:
Home sales are expected to grow though there are pockets of stagnation, with a rise anticipated in 2025 and beyond as mortgage rates stabilize and economic conditions improve.
Home prices are forecasted to appreciate modestly, signaling a shift toward a more balanced market that benefits both buyers and sellers.
Mortgage rates are predicted to stabilize around 6%, creating a more predictable and favorable environment for buyers.
Housing inventory is expected to increase, supported by new home construction, easing some of the supply challenges faced in recent years due to development delays.
Commercial Real Estate:
The office market is likely to experience steady recovery, with demand for prime office space increasing toward the end of the year (still skeptical on this point, but we have seen stricter RTO demands recently, the big one coming from JPMorgan).
Retail spaces are expected to maintain low vacancy rates, while the industrial sector will continue to thrive, fueled by e-commerce, although leasing activity may end up normalizing to pre-pandemic levels.
Best we can hope for is a crash but I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
More cash is the name of the game. Race against time in my opinion, high prices are the new norm.
Global News
President Joe Biden announced a whopping one-time payment of $770 for individuals affected by the recent wildfires in California. This payment is part of federal assistance efforts to support those impacted by the devastating fires, which have caused significant loss of life and property.
The $770 payment is designed to provide immediate relief for essential needs such as food, water, and other necessities. It aligns with existing federal programs that offer flexible, upfront payments to disaster survivors for urgent expenses.
Lmao.
$65 Billion to Ukraine and $770 for the Americans reminds me of the peanuts the Hawaii victims got as well.
Gavin Newsom is busy with his big words, hand gestures, and semantics game trying to pass blame on others for the disastrous management of California and the cluster fuck that is these fires. A new fire started last night and has been dubbed the "Auto Fire" erupting near a homeless encampment by the Santa Clara River in Ventura.
As of January 13, 2025, wildfires in the Los Angeles area have caused devastating loss of life and extensive property damage:
Loss of Life:
At least 24 people have died, with 16 individuals still reported missing.
Property Damage:
More than 12,000 structures have been destroyed, and over 60 square miles of land have been scorched.
Economic Impact:
Initial estimates place the economic losses between $52 billion and $57 billion.
Check out the mugshots of various looters in Los Angeles that have been taking advantage of the chaos and disorder — true group of winners.
Greenland
Greenland's Prime Minister, Múte Egede, has surprisingly expressed openness to discussions with President-elect Donald Trump regarding the island's future.
While reaffirming Greenland’s stance that it is not for sale (we will see), Egede emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation to address mutual interests. He stated that Greenland is open to solutions that respect its autonomy, adding that the island aspires to independence and self-determination. Denmark, which oversees Greenland, has also indicated a willingness to engage in discussions about increased U.S. military presence in the Arctic, while maintaining that Greenland’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.
Trump has renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its strategic location and natural resources as critical for national security and Arctic dominance. He described U.S. ownership of Greenland as vital to maintaining global influence in the region. This renewed push has drawn international attention, with Russia expressing its own strategic interest and suggesting a shared approach to the island’s control.
Despite the openness to dialogue, Greenland’s leadership remains firm on maintaining its autonomy and rejecting any notion of a sale (Trudeau has tried to say this in past days as well re: Canada). The island’s government is open to cooperation and investment but insists on respecting its aspirations for greater independence. These developments highlight Greenland’s growing geopolitical importance and the delicate balance required to navigate international interest while safeguarding its sovereignty.
The refreshed themes of geopolitical expansion are very interesting to say the least. Will be interesting to see if this amounts to anything in the coming years.
Security News
As we approach the inauguration I think it make sense to re-visit security updates especially as the terror attack in New Orleans and bizzare event in Las Vegas concerning a Green Beret falls out of the news cycle.
The inauguration is without a doubt a prime opportunity for fuckery.
With warnings from the FBI, former special forces operators, and former Secret Service professionals including Dan Bongino about the capacity for terror attacks, it’s likely wise to stay vigilant. The world is about to change in a big way as Trump begin’s his second term and our geopolitical foes like China, Iran, and Russia are likely busy preparing in various ways. Make no mistake — there are absolutely operators and agents within the US from those countries.
We know, as I’ve covered before, there are many getaways in the US that have entered through the Southern border affiliated with radical organizations and foreign foes.
OSINT Technical on X shared last night that @hntrbrkmedia is reporting that China’s DJI, the world's largest drone manufacturer, has recently disabled U.S. geofencing on its drones, enabling flights over airports, military bases, and no-fly zones. Not great if true, Washington DC and other sensitive security locations are included in these geofenced areas — per DJI normally drones “ will automatically decelerate and hover in place” when they enter these areas to avoid issues, collisions, or problems.
Though the drone hysteria over New Jersey and other locales has died down — we still have no answers as to what was actually going on. Drones provide operators a cheap, easy, and efficient way to conduct strikes as we have scene in the Middle East, Ukraine, and other theaters of conflict.
If you listened to my episode of Risk On with
(a former Army Ranger) we discuss theories on the Green Beret and the likelihood of different scenarios in the Las Vegas Tesla Cybertruck explosion. If you’re not up to speed on why this is relevant — in an email that the FBI confirmed and Shawn Ryan shared, this Green Beret alleges drones in New Jersey and over the US are Chinese in origin.While that verdict is still out — it would not surprise me if we see some sort of adverse event play out in the near future with the use of drones. Also, not telling you to believe it, do your own research but — Tucker Carlson claimed recently on his show he was told by an intelligence official that the U.S. Government actually took down a Chinese satellite which was being used to control the drones over New Jersey.
Who knows what to believe but the theory these were Chinese is not that wild or unbelievable.
In retrospect I still think the election was too quiet. There are still many who do not want to see Trump in office. We have enemies within the nation. Many people that have slipped through the proper channels and federal organizations are continuing to warn about the capacity for violence from bad eggs.
We accurately forecasted the attempts on Trump’s life last year and my gut tells me something else might be around the corner, related to him specifically or not. Stay frosty as usual gents.
Hopefully we can get through the inauguration without any hiccups and move onto the glorious bull market continuation we all want to see.
That’s all I have for you kings today — have a great week and see you Wednesday on Risk On.
Discord will have updates intra-week.
Andy
Risk On Podcast
Arbitrage Andy X
BullX Crypto Trading Software
Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin
Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
How do I join the Discord server Andy?
Thank you for commenting on the housing market in the Northeast... glad I'm not the only one that thinks it's insane that a home built in the 50s and next to the train tracks is selling for +$1.5M. It's at parity or cheaper to build a new home on a lot when you factor in maintence costs of a 70 year old house which is nuts.