ARB Letter - Litecoin Fakeout, CPI Report
009 - Feels like crypto is about to melt faces in the face of crippling inflation
EXOTIC MARKET INTELLIGENCE.
Tuesday September 14th 2021
Markets
Goooooood morning. Lots of stuff to digest. Met Gala, Inflation CPI numbers, Size Lord Saylor buying more Bitcoin, a vicious Walmart Litecoin hoax, and more. Have a great day trading. I spent the yesterday buy more BTC, LINK, ETH, and ADA if you can believe that, nearly out of all salvageable dry powder. My conviction is strong leading into what will surely be a dark dark fall and winter on a variety of fronts.
Solid movers worth noting today: CVNA, ANGI (21% revenue growth), and select small cap names.
U.S. President Joe Biden will announce new steps to slow the spread of COVID-19 before the U.N. Assembly meets. Lmao this is getting so fucking old tbh, so blatant other objectives are the focus here.
Chinese stocks are down in pre market trading as new regulatory measures and crackdowns continue to emerge from Beijing
China says this crackdown will continue for years. You get what they are getting ready for yet? Or you still think they are friends? Consumer prices in August rose 5.3% from a year ago and 0.3% from July, the Labor Department reported Tuesday (CNBC).
Michael Size Lord Saylor of Microstrategy bought another 5,050 bitcoin, total long position is around 144,000 Bitcoins worth $3.1B - FUCKING SIZE
Bet of the century
Yesterday a range of news sources falsely reported on twitter that Walmart was partnering/accepting Litecoin LTC lmao. The news spread like wildfire across the web instantly. The price absolutely fucking mooned:
“This has never happened before and we have already put in place enhanced authentication steps to prevent this isolated incident from occurring in the future,” said a Walmart spokesperson.
Not that any of us give a remote flying fuck but the Met Gala was last night. Among the illuminati-loving demonic celebrities showing up was AOC with a Tax the Rich dress. How fitting on the eve of the genesis of full blown communism in the US.
EXOTIC NEWS - INFLATION
As mentioned earlier the consumer price index is expected to come in at a 5.4% year over year pace for August, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate (CNBC). If you have been paying attention this bout of inflation is absolutely not transitory. Remember - 40% of US dollars in existence were printed in the last 12 months. That should alarm you. You can’t continue to dilute the supply without severe short term “transitory” and long term repercussions. If you combine that with the blatant effort to get people hooked and dependent on the government with liberal stimulus and benefit checks you exacerbate the problem.
Now look while the August rise may not be immediately alarming, the extent of inflation is surely being underplayed right now. Here are some resources so you can take a look at the “reported” numbers and see for yourself what you want to make of the situation. I value my everyday and anecdotal experiences over government reported numbers. The above images are extremely common in New York right now. Probably safe to multiply all numbers by 2X at least. I am stocking meat, rice, paper towels, toilet paper, and more for the winter months.
When looking at these absurd bull markets in conjunction with this environment it is important to keep two things in mind. Much like the swath of new retail investors and traders we have seen in 2020/2021, everyone in Weimar Germany also thought they were getting enormously wealthy on paper. This is usually a sign that you are in a unsustainable bubble. Markets are not designed to help you move social classes or turn $500 into $500K on $GME options.
Ultimately I have stopped adding to equities for now. 401K contributions aside, I think it makes sense to wait a bit and see if this clown show can possibly continue as the markets defy literally all logic and underlying economic health. As mentioned before I see blue chip crypto as an excellent hedge against inflation. Not to say crypto wouldn’t see a violent jarring if we see broader equity sell offs, but in the long term an inflation proof asset will be king.
To honor the occasion we originated a bespoke Jerome Powell Long Sleeve for fall. Perfect for deleting beers and wearing underneath your Barbour Jackets. Should we make Jerome an NFT? Let us know in the comments. Full NFT collection HERE.
For more, check out the Arbitrage Andy (Instagram, Twitter, Merch Store).
Fooken Solid.