8AM Announcement from Pentagon
538: Google/Microsoft Opportunity, Major Iran Update
Good morning.
Given how quickly things are bouncing back and forth with the Iran conflict we’re going to get a quick post out this morning and will likely have follow ups tomorrow morning and Thursday.
If you want to catch up with our post from Friday you can find it below. It’s a quick look at what I was buying last week.
It was announced that there will be a Pentagon briefing today at 8 AM ET. It will be the first joint press conference since March 19.
This isn’t some mystery event it’s a scheduled Pentagon briefing:
Led by Pete Hegseth (Secretary of War)
With Dan Caine
Held at 8:00 AM ET at the Pentagon
Standard on camera press briefing format
This will be the big event to watch today before market open with most seeing a troops on the ground announcement being the worst case scenario.
The odds do not look great for us either with reports of big build ups and prediction markets like Polymarket now pegging the chances we move in before April 30th at a whopping 63%. Higher for December. No bueno folks.
Make sure to tune in.
Could set the tone for assets in trading today.
Market Run Down
Yesterday had a clear risk off tone, driven almost entirely by rising concern around the Iran situation. I watched as some of my late longs into tech got slaughtered like Orcs at the gates of Isengard.
Equities slowly churned lower throughout the session, with weakness most noticeable in tech and cyclical names as investors pulled back exposure rather than press psychotic bets into uncertainty.
I would not say it was a full panic, but you could sense the shift in posture as capital moved to the sidelines as headlines picked up. To be fair the headlines change by the hour so I don’t blame folks for being a bit more defensive or sitting on their hands for the time being, this meeting this morning from the Pentagon could be a major happening as the week gets going.
Unfortunately for oil bears, Cramer may have just screwed you over with his oil top call.
The market continues to be an absolute cluster. ExxonMobil reviewed contingency plans for Middle East operations this week amid heightened concerns over their potential supply disruptions.
Saudi linked operations have already faced production disruptions, Asian buyers are scrambling to secure alternative supply, and major shipping firms are dealing with rising costs and logistical breakdowns as routes shift. Insurance premiums are climbing, timelines are stretching, and the friction just keeps on building everywhere.
One thing is for sure.
Even if all of this stopped TODAY we would continue feeling the impacts of this latest Middle East venture well into summer.
My Shopping & Watchlist Continued (we will expand on this tomorrow)
Couple names I am hyper focused on right now outside the adds I made yesterday to SPY 0.00%↑ ONDS 0.00%↑ and KTOS 0.00%↑ include:
Google GOOG 0.00%↑
Palo Alto Networks PANW 0.00%↑ (CEO Nikesh Arora bought about $10M of his own stock on the open market)
Microsoft MSFT 0.00%↑ - TrendSpider is reporting that the weekly RSI hasn't seen this low in over 15 years.
Google just dropped a major quantum computing update that brings the theoretical breaking of modern encryption closer to reality (which bears are going to love)
Their team optimized Shor’s algorithm to crack the core math behind ECDSA, the system securing Bitcoin, Ethereum, TLS, and most of the internet, using far fewer resources than previously thought.
In theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could now break this encryption in minutes, not years. Key word “in theory”. We will expand on the validity of this tomorrow morning. Ledger’s CEO said quantum threat is definitely advancing quickly, but that Bitcoin remains secure for now due to limits on hardware.
Crypto traded pretty poorly on Sunday and Monday, continuing to behave more like a high beta risk asset than a safe haven in this environment, although Bitcoin looks OKAY compared to some assets since this war began.
Both bitcoin and broader crypto saw some selling pressure as liquidity rotated out of speculative assets and into cash and traditional hedges.
Meanwhile, rates didn’t offer much relief. It seems there’s still no meaningful shift away from the “higher for longer” narrative, so you effectively had geopolitical risk layered on top of an already tight macro backdrop.
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend.
One of the best times in a long time to buy quality.
Ignore the bears.
And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.
—Bill Ackman
*Fannie/Freddie proceeded to absolutely moon in trading Monday lmao
Market Headlines
The S&P 500 correction is nearing its end stage Morgan Stanley strategists said recently (Unusual Whales)
The Walmart Recession Indicator is at highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis (Simply Bitcoin)
Citi bank has said that brent oil prices could hit $150-200 (Unusual Whales)
US gas prices have officially surged above $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022 (Kobeissi Letter)
The shoe company Allbirds (which had a market cap of $40B at one point) is now being sold for about $30M
Chainlink Labs and Anchorage Digital join as founding members of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a new initiative to advance US digital asset and blockchain policy (CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto sold $20 million in BTC at 40% loss recently
KuCoin is set to pay $500K to the CFTC over unregistered exchange claims (CoinTelegraph)
The US Department of Labor proposed a rule that would allow Bitcoin investments in 401(k)s (BitcoinMagazine)
Global News
The US Department of War announced on Monday it will be holding a press conference this morning at 8 AM ET. Could be mayhem, could be a nothing burger.
Based on the timing and who is involved there are a few predictions on what is going to be announced:
Escalation (most watched)
This is the highest-impact scenario (oil, defense stocks, and general risk-off probably ensue).
Ground troops discussion
Expanded strikes / targets
Broader regional involvement
De-escalation / framework
Our bags would celebrate but I just don’t think this is super likely unfortunately.
Negotiation updates
Partial ceasefire signals
“mission accomplished lite” narrative
Keep in mind this would likely trigger a:
Some kind of relief rally
Oil pullback
Strategic update (base case)
This is most likely I think, but could also be perceived as negative by markets. You probably would get a:
Progress report
“we are achieving objectives”
No major policy shift
One thing is for sure, I don’t think the classic Trump admin “TACO” trade is over. There’s a high chance we continue to see confusing headlines, contradicting statement from world leaders, and market volatility this week.
And heading into this morning’s Pentagon briefing, the backdrop only reinforces that. Israel is signaling this campaign could last weeks, not days, with continued strikes deeper into Iran.
At the same time, we have Trump oscillating between aggressive escalation with his threats of potentially targeting critical infrastructure, and his talk of negotiations or ceasefires, sometimes within the same news cycle lol.
Iran isn’t backing down either, continuing missile and drone activity across the region while rejecting diplomatic opportunities. Meanwhile, there’s growing chatter around potential U.S. troop involvement or expanded operations (with reports of large accumulations of troops in the region), but nothing definitive has been confirmed so far.
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you. Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!
— President Donald J. Trump
Other news:
The mural made for Iryna Zarustka, the young woman killed in Charlotte by a violent career criminal, will be removed after Providence's Mayor Smiley condemned it
Massive explosions were captured with live video after the the U.S. hit the Isfahan underground missile facility in Iran last night
European leaders held emergency discussions on energy security as fears of supply disruption intensified
Cybersecurity firms warned this week of increased state linked cyberattack activity tied to the conflict in Iran
I will see you guys tomorrow morning for a closer look at equities. Thursday we are going to get more into the online business side of things and how to position yourself to take advantage of certain themes throughout the rest of 2026.
Buckle up lords, could be an insane week. See you on X and the Discord this morning.
Andy