$77 Trillion and Counting
452: ONDS Earnings Rip & Domestic Threats
Morning lords.
Hope everyone had a great week.
Rally we are witnessing in markets keeps stretching the bounds of sanity. While we will cover it today another one of our picks decided to begin a nice rip with ONDS 0.00%↑. We will review all of the top Arb Letter plays at year end of course, but right now the track record on home run equities looks solid.
And yeah, I know we are in a ridiculous bull market but some of these names have truly outperformed. AMD 0.00%↑ PLTR 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ QUIK 0.00%↑ to name a few.
If you wanted to get a quick refresher on some of the “fresher” names I have on my watchlist make sure to check out the post below as well as Tuesdays.
Next week we will get back into self development topics as I have had a few of you ask for us to revisit them. Things like:
Building a side business
Navigating society in 2026
Fitness
How the world is changing
Markets & Equities
With President Trump’s visit to China apparently going well, markets continue to pump higher although futures this morning are red.
Markets are looking weaker this morning as degenerates and investors begin reassessing whether the recent AI and tech driven rally can continue in the face of rising yields, sticky inflation concerns, and the lingering geopolitical tension around the world.
Trump’s visit to China this week brought together a major group of American business leaders and executives as discussions centered around trade, AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and broader economic cooperation between the two countries.
Caked up executives tied to companies including Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Boeing, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Qualcomm, and Micron reportedly participated in meetings surrounding the summit, highlighting how important China remains to global supply chains and future technology growth.
Elon even contributed some good doses of super autism to the festivities.
Much of the attention for this visit focused on AI infrastructure, chips, electric vehicles, and autonomous systems, with Nvidia and Tesla seen as particularly important players given their exposure to both AI demand and the Chinese market. Safe to say you should have exposure to every company represented at these meetings.
The broader tone of the meetings appeared aimed at stabilizing economic relations after years of tension. Seems pretty positive for now.
Morgan Stanley revised their year end target for the S&P500 recently, saying it is now 8000. Bull Theory on X highlighted yesterday that the US stock market just hit an all time high, crossing $77 trillion in market cap for the first time in history.
Absolute madness.
Are we going to let some air out soon or just keep the party going?
US household debt jumped +$18 billion in Q1 2026, to a record $18.8 trillion (Kobeissi Letter)
Global money supply is now up to a record $121.9 trillion dollars (Kobeissi Letter)
Anduril announced their Series H raise of $5 billion which brings the valuation to $61 billion, led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz
Copper made a new all-time high
Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑ is set to invest an additional $250 million in battery cell plant outside Berlin (Polymarket)
Cloudflare will reduce their workforce by more than 1,100 employees globally
COIN 0.00%↑ is rallying hard with Clarity passing the Senate and Bitcoin pumping
Futures are lower across major indexes following the end of the Trump + Xi summit without any major breakthrough headlines, while the 10 year Treasury yield has climbed back above a high 4.5% (first time since summer of 2025).
On the bright side our favorite drone play ONDS 0.00%↑ went vertical yesterday, up almost 27%. It’s funny too, I had just started to get the DMs “Bro WTF IS GOING ON WITH ONDS?!” “THIS IS SHIT!”.
Guys patience. You have to be patient lol. It’s like everyone’s dopamine is just fried and they want the 5-10x overnight.
Shares were up sharply on heavy volume after the company delivered some explosive year-over-year growth and a rapidly expanding backlog (that we have covered here). Investors appear increasingly focused on Ondas as a potential player in the future of autonomous warfare, counter drone systems, ISR, and battlefield robotics.
Key highlights from their quarter included:
Revenue of roughly $50 million, up more than 1,000% year-over-year
Gross margins improving to nearly 50%
Backlog expanding to approximately $457 million
Raised full year revenue guidance to at least $390 million
Strong demand across autonomous defense technologies and drone-related systems
Management pointed to momentum in military and security-related applications ($PLTR partnership), while acquisitions continue expanding the company’s capabilities across AI driven defense infrastructure. Wall Street price targets for ONDS sit in the 20’s mostly.
The broader excitement around the name comes from growing investor interest in defense technology, autonomous systems, and AI-powered military applications. RDW 0.00%↑ was up big as well and KTOS 0.00%↑ bounced a bit.
As I said last week, regardless of what happens in the short term with Iran, you have to be out of your mind to avoid drone exposure in the coming decade.
Besides drone themes I am eager to buy even more MSFT 0.00%↑ and potentially some IREN 0.00%↑.
Crypto
Clarity is the big item this week for crypto as Bitcoin showed some life yesterday.
This week the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a bipartisan vote, marking a major step forward for U.S. crypto regulation (and hopefully for the odds this thing gets passed soon). Polymarket with a strong 68% chance this gets signed into law this year.
TLDR for those unfamiliar, this legislation aims to create clearer rules around digital assets, stablecoins, token classification, and which agencies oversee different parts of the crypto market.
The latest revisions reportedly include some updated provisions tied to stablecoin incentives, DeFi related protections, and broader consumer safeguards following months of negotiations between regulators, lawmakers, banks, and crypto companies.
It has been months of stalls, revisions, rebuttals (looking at your Coinbase) but it looks like there is a chance it gets over the finish line despite Elizabeth Warren bitching and moaning about the evils of crypto.
While it is looking optimistic remember the bill still has to go to a full Senate floor vote and a conference reconciliation process. Far from done.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said this week that the crypto market structure legislation is “closer than ever” to being passed
The Senate has officially confirmed pro-crypto Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chair to replace lord Jerome Powell
IREN recently completed a $3 billion convertible senior notes offering after strong investor demand drove their deal size up from an initially proposed $2 billion (CoinDesk)
Hyperliquid has been one of the strongest performers in crypto over the last 24 hours, with HYPE sharply outperforming both Bitcoin and much of the broader altcoin market (up about 17% in last 24H).
Part of the move definitely appears to be tied to optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act, which many believe could favor more decentralized on chain trading platforms over time.
I really just think Hyperliquid is increasingly being viewed less as a niche perpetuals exchange and more as a serious player in the future of decentralized market infrastructure. Keep an eye on the alts that rip as we get closer to Clarity being codified.
Moves could come faster than folks are ready for.
Global News
This week we have CIA Director John Ratcliffe leading a US delegation to Havana to meet with Cuban government officials on their energy crisis and US relations.
In Asia, markets are closely watching the aftermath of the Trump/Xi summit and tensions in the Middle East continue escalating as oil markets remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz
France holds over 1,700 people on a cruise ship after suspected norovirus outbreak
Five Italian nationals died this week following a tragic scuba diving accident in the Maldives (CNN/Reuters)
The Pentagon has signed new deals to “aggressively expand” U.S. cruise & hypersonic missile production
A new Ebola outbreak in Congo's remote Ituri province has started, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths recorded so far (CBS News)
The DOJ has said that Yale medical school discriminated against Asian, White applicants according to the Washington Post (Unusual Whales)
Terror Plot in Alabama?
One of the more alarming domestic security stories this week came out of Alabama after authorities discovered a grenade style improvised explosive device attached underwater near the Converse Reservoir dam, a major piece of critical infrastructure tied to the Mobile area’s water supply.
The device was reportedly found during a maintenance dive, triggering a large scale response involving federal agencies, bomb squads, and maritime security teams before it was safely detonated.
This incident has fueled renewed concerns around the domestic threat profile facing U.S. infrastructure, particularly as utilities, dams, power grids, rail systems, and communication networks become increasingly exposed to sabotage risks, lone actors, and asymmetric style attacks inside the United States.
Just this past week federal prosecutors announced charges tied to an alleged Chinese influence operation involving a former California mayor (AKA she was a spy).
This week we also had the conviction of a New York man accused of operating a covert Chinese government-linked “police station” inside Manhattan’s Chinatown. This is not the first “police station” found in NYC.
Officials have not yet publicly identified a suspect or motive in Alabama. I suppose it could be some crackhead who got bored when he got skunked catfishing or it could be a lone wolf foreign operator with a plan to sabotage US infrastructure.
“This is an unprecedented threat, and we are fortunate that this device was discovered before it could cause serious damage to our water supply or harm to individuals. We are grateful for the professionalism and competency of our law enforcement partners – as well as the quick thinking of our contractors and divers – in identifying this device and safely destroying it.”
Bud McCrory, MAWSS (Mobile Area Water & Sewer System) director
We haven’t really covered this kind of stuff given the recent War in Iran and the ridiculous market action of the past few months, but rest assured there’s still a significant threat profile stateside that I expect to ramp up ahead of midterms.
I will try to get an Arbitrage Andy schizo edit out on Instagram before the weekend. Have one cooking in the lab.
Godspeed. I need to go destroy my body in the gym to repent for my sins on vacation.
Andy