2024 Off To A Spicy Start
245: Top News Going Into 2024
Happy New Year everyone - I hope you all had a solid holiday break and got to spend some time decompressing with family and friends.
2024 is set to be a defining year on many front. Politically we’ve probably never seen a more contested and polarized election playing out. Critics think I am being dramatic when I say this next election is going to shape the future of this country, but it will. On top of the election the world is changing before our eyes.
Today I will be summarizing some of the most important developments across the world in geopolitics, society, and financial markets. Thursday’s post on building businesses in 2024 will be for paid subs.
If you missed the last couple posts on what to expect in 2023 you can find them below.
As we move into 2024 there are several developments everyone should be paying attention to that will impact the ability to profit in financial markets, the security state of the USA, and important societal trends that are shaping the population’s mindset and sentiment.
I’m optimistic the tide is turning in 2024 but it will be a rough road as many truths come to fruition and paradigms change.
Humans are naturally opposed to new information that contradicts their existing beliefs and world-views but in 2024 I suspect real world consequences and events will leave many no choice but to re-examine previous views and biases.
Succeeding in this new environment is dependent on the ability to process and internalize new information.
Geopolitical Violence and Civil Unrest
There’s been a troubling rise in violence across the world — highlighted by several assassinations, violent actions, and new conflicts in the last week. If you’ve read and kept up with the last few Arb Letter’s on society and politics this shouldn’t come as a surprise. We are watching in real time — the repercussions of bad policy come to fruition.
It’s certainly a scary time. The post WWII world order that was slowly etched out during the Cold War is shaking. Our enemies abroad are watching our every move, many are subverting us at home through psy-ops, cyber attacks, and social engineering efforts. Our reputation has been marred by a botched pull out in Afghanistan and a growing insurgency across the Middle East and Africa that seems to be completely unbothered by years of occupation by the world’s largest fighting force.
Most Americans probably don’t even realize this.
Governments and societies in the last 20-30 years have made key mistakes oftentimes falling prey to globalist and far left aspirations and promises of utopia across the entire world. As I said on Twitter last night the chickens have now come home to roost.
The Israeli Hamas conflict has had a massive societal and political aftermath that has transcended onto American campuses and all walks of life. Conflicts are emerging in new countries across the globe including Yemen, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Right wing candidates are gaining popularity across the globe, most recently in Argentina, Poland, and
Among the incidents to note this week:
Democratic Party of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in the neck while he was speaking to a Crowd in the Southeastern City of Busan
The Deputy Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Saleh al-Arouri as well as Senior Hamas Leader, Khalil al-Hayya were all killed in Beirut by an Israeli airstrike yesterday. Hamas has promised swift retribution.
The Red Sea conflict continues to expand with Maersk ceasing all Red Sea shipments due to ongoing incidents between Houthi and Iran backed Forces.
At least 103 people were killed Wednesday and 141 injured in the Iranian city of Kerman after twin blasts near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani, in what officials called a terror attack, according to state media (CNN)
Venezuela lashed out at “an act of hostile provocation” after the United Kingdom deployed a navy patrol ship to Guyana amid a simmering border dispute (Politco)
NATO is buying 1,000 Patriot missiles in the face of Russia threat
The Jeffrey Epstein list won’t be made public until at least January 22
To kick off 2024 , Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year's address that the "reunification" with Taiwan is inevitable this year
Hamas supporters using their bodies this week - worked to stop cars from reaching JFK airport in NYC. The same day supporters launched a large weather type balloon in an attempt to disrupt incoming and outgoing flights
Like we’ve touched on before, domestic terror incidents and unrest will most certainly grow in 2024 and the scary part is, they’ve already have started to.
A car crashed in Rochester, New York this weekend and is being investigated as possible terrorism after gasoline canisters were found in the SUV. 2 are dead with 5 injured and the suspect is in critical condition. FBI and local police are investigating the incident.
Hamas and Pro Palestinian supporters are launching balloons at airports and blocking infrastructure and traffic — which begs the question, what are we actually willing to tolerate? It shows just how passive and accepting we are in the US of blatant hostility and threats to our way of life. As I have noted before — these groups and ideologies are not compatible with Western society and they are glad to employ violence to reach their end goals.
And it’s not just pundits or commentators like me that are highlighting this new environment we are in. @eleevn on Twitter reviewed the recent budget highlights for 2024 for the DARPA & DoD — they include - multiple inferences of impending supply-chain collapse & bioengineered microbial nutrient solutions - multiple projects related to operating in extreme cold, electromagnetically unpredictable, austere & GPS-compromised environments.
Worth thinking about — most major intelligence agencies and security agencies are telling you what’s coming and what they expect in the near future if you can read between the lines.
Why This Matters
It may be unpopular and not sexy to talk about — but all Americans should be weary of their surroundings moving into 2024. It seems everyday that threats and risks for domestic events and disruptions is growing more prevalent. Conflict is inevitable with the current mix of idealogical beliefs, cultural differences, and political powder kegs.
Political polarization is growing with the upcoming election, countries are experiencing coups, revolutions, and changes in regime, conflict is breaking out in new regions, and global citizens are becoming fed up with harmful policies toted by globalist leaders that end up harming them with each passing day.
Just ask Europe how mass migration is panning out for them. Soon we will start to see the repercussions of unchecked illegal migration in the US. But don’t worry California is giving free healthcare to 700,000 illegals adding to their whopping $68B budget deficit.
Thanks California. Glad I left.
Former CIA intelligence analyst Dr. John Gentry warned thus week that the “proverbial deep state within the intelligence community” will attempt to interfere with the 2024 election in the same way they did in 2020 (LeadingReport).
Take from that what you may — but it’s obvious that this next election is going to be anything but calm. It’s a zero sum game for the most powerful leaders and organizations in the world.
I cannot wait to see what big new “thing” or distraction they have ready for this year.
Financial Markets
The Nasdaq is now down nearly 4% from its high just 3 trading days ago. In other words, the index has erased $600 billion of market cap in 3 days (@KobeissiLetter).
Markets seem unclear on where to go in January despite some pointing to positive momentum from the Fed for 2024.
Job markets continue to look bleak as quiet layoffs circulate in various industries.
Banks have laid off over 60,000 employees in 2023. Hiring plunged by 363K in November, the biggest monthly drop since July 2020 (Zerohedge).
US Debt Hit a record $34.001 Trillion this week. Think about that. It’s completely insurmountable and will never get paid back or alleviated. What does this mean for the future?
Does the grand ponzi of capital markets just continue to simply ignore this fact and chug along? It’s almost as if this number just sits in an isolated silo while everything else is disconnected. Eventually, the cards will fall. I’m not here to tell you when the dollar collapses or gets put to the side but with this reality it’s inevitable we have a major hiccup at some point.
Anyway in crypto land we’ve seen a decent run up over past months in anticipation for a multitude of spot BTC ETFs getting approved by the SEC sometime in January. Bitcoin surpassed $45K yesterday and markets were really surging. I woke up down multiple 5 figures, got pissed, and checked twitter to see what the cause of the dump was. Matrix on Target (no clue who these dudes are) published a report in which they claim all ETFs will be denied in January.
So from a FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) perspective this is nothing new — we saw this same bullshit with one of the CoinTelegraph interns who faked an approval. This liquidation also served another purpose if you look under the surface — over $540,000,000 was liquidated on that dump candle.
Many times this is a necessary occurence to wipe over-levered degenerates from the market in order to continue moving higher. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. came back on Twitter this morning to address the rumor from Matrix on Target: "We have heard nothing to indicate anything but approval" of Bitcoin ETFs.
Ironically one of Bitcoin’s staunchest opponents historically — Jim Cramer — pivoted on CNBC yesterday saying that Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere and that everyone should own some.
Commence dump.
Why This Matters
People are getting jumpy in crypto and there is nervous energy. Understand that this type of volatility is inherent in crypto — it’s just the way it goes. The good news is about 90% of the time after these FUD inspired dumps that happen quickly pan out — buying is almost never a bad call.
Pay attention to the tokens, assets, and projects that bounce back quick after news like this because they are resilient. Anyone can post an alarmist piece about news that will drive the market but over time it all evens out. You should love these flash dumps as they give new entries for those looking to accumulate.
Try to have a longer term view on this instead of following the market every second of every day — that would be my advice coming from someone who was glued to his phone last bull market and during this last bear market. It’s not healthy. Get your positions and allocations squared away or set your DCA buys over time and just go on with life, build, work, exercise, etc.
You will be pleasantly surprised as years go by.
All the signs are present that Wall Street is chomping at the bit to get these ETFs approved and begin collecting fees. Major players are beginning to run ads for Bitcoin, amendments have been made repeatedly, and the SEC is meeting with participants. While I would be hesitant to suggest pure market manipulation the timing of the Matrix on Target report this morning. Smells to me like a FUD Campaign to acquire cheap Bitcoin right before approval.
Time will tell. Don’t let anyone shake you out.
Harvard’s Claudine Gay Resigns
What was one of the most shocking and jarring public displays of woke logic in action (the congressional hearing on campus anti-semistim) has led to the resignation of the 2nd university president in Harvard’s Claudine Gay.
When her, MIT’s Sally Kornbluth, and Penn’s Lizz Magill testified before congress last month about the demonstrations, language, and harassment from Pro Palestinian/Hamas students on campus, the US public got a good look into just how demented the far left’s ideology is. They outright refused to condemn genocidal language and calls for violence on campus.
The response online by academics and journalists on the left is laughable to say the least. Slavery, racism, and prejudice is being used to explain the departure of Gay instead of the facts that she botched the congressional hearing on anti-semitism, has countless examples of plagiarism in her professional career and is under-qualified for the role.
Bill Ackman wrote a length response to accusations that Gay was forced out due to racism and elite money holders.
This instance is part of a larger discussion that needs to be had in our country right now. How many leaders and individuals have been pushed through into the highest rungs of leadership simply because they check a bunch of boxes or look good from a DEI perspective?
My guess would be thousands. What happens when you fill the military, corporations, government arms, and universities with under qualified diversity hires that don’t necessarily have the same capability or skill as another candidate?
You get decay. You get inefficiency. You get sub par results.
Why wouldn’t you? You selected based on arbitrary racial, ideological, or physical criteria instead of picking the best man or woman for the job.
The left is panicking because more and more people are rejecting their warped worldview that relies on playing victim, obfuscating key details, and denying reality.
Why This Matters
The consequences of woke and far left ideology on our systems, culture, universities, government, and military is finally being felt. When you champion select groups based on arbitrary DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) standards and esoteric criteria instead of selecting the best candidates and individuals based on merit and capability, inevitably, you will get a breakdown in efficiency, integrity, and results.
We have seen in this in our military (with DEI mandates, vax mandates, and inclusion initiatives), we’ve seen it in college admissions, in the corporate world, and within the government. Sacrificing competency and capability for virtue and optics to avoid being labeled a racist, sexist, or bigot.
Today when Claudine Gay resigned from Harvard a slew of far left journalists and other academics took to Twitter to voice their delusional takes on what happened — many claimed racism was the main driver. NPR reported that Claudine Gay’s resignation was the result of ‘an extreme right wing agenda”. It was quite absurd. Associated Press put out a piece this morning called: Harvard president's resignation highlights new conservative weapon against colleges: plagiarism". Lmao give me a break.
Someone can be under-qualified, commit 50+ counts of plagiarism, and refuse to condemn genocidal calls to action on campus in front of congress and there are still lunatics who will ignore all of this and play victim. I’m tired of it to be honest.
Enough of this trash and bullshit.
Bring back merit, capability, and choosing the best individual regardless of color, race, beliefs, or background. To do anything else is racist.
One important trend that encapsulates a lot of what we talked about today is the waning power and influence of the leftist media machine. Twitter is perhaps one of the best examples of this considering it’s where most breaking news comes out and most discussion is had between those in the public. People loved to call those who supported Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter D*ckriders or fanboys.
Predictably Elon has destroyed the woke echo chamber that Twitter once was and now we are beginning to see what happens when people are actually allowed to speak their opinions and present factual information — the bulk of this was censored and throttled on Twitter under it’s past executives. We saw under the hood with the Twitter Files and what we saw was disturbing. Complete and widespread censorship, reach throttling, and shadowbanning of right wing individuals, ideas, and news. We even got to confirm that Biden regime branches of government were in direct conversations with Twitter to alter and form content.
The Covid 19 Pandemic, 2020 election, foreign wars, and policies of the current administration were all topics that received HEAVY censorship and “fact checking”. Now all bets are off and more people are starting to wake up to the deception, lies, and propoganda of those that run the country.
It’s inherently a good thing and it should be obvious now why the elites took such an issue with Elon taking over Twitter to begin with.
I have high hopes for 2024 it seems that a lot of people are starting to “get it”. They understand those at the top do not have our best interests in mind and they understand that the proliferation of information is the best weapon against attempts to mislead or deceive the public. The takeover of Twitter, decision at Harvard, mistrust of insitutions by citizens, and clear consequences of poor leadership and far left ideology that are becoming visible in all areas of life are beginning to change people’s mind’s.
The tide is turning. Reality cannot be fluffed up or obfuscated now. Will make for an interesting 2024.
See you guys tomorrow.
Andy
That dump had my apple watch buzzin for 20 mins this am on the treadmill. I was listening to Pomps take on the GBTC board changes and ETFs in general which had me in a good mood. I read somewhere Matrixport has anti-BTC ownership. FUD and/or fuckery for sure. 😤
Appreciate your dose of sanity. You may not have 250k finance bros on Insta anymore but you have a broader reach than you realize. What you say has import. HNY.