ARB Letter

ARB Letter

10 Stocks Trump Might Target Next

471: Government Equity Stake Targets in Defense and Energy/Mining

Arbitrage Andy's avatar
Arbitrage Andy
Oct 09, 2025
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Morning all,

Every now and then a theme emerges in markets that you would be foolish to ignore entirely.

Oftentimes they defy logic or sanity and because of that people miss incredible opportunities they might otherwise seize if they “just went with their gut”.

We’ve printed on PLTR 0.00%↑

We’ve printed on INTC 0.00%↑

We’ve printed on NVDA 0.00%↑

We’ve printed on AMD 0.00%↑

We’re starting to print on SMCI 0.00%↑

Bitcoin is at an all time high with hopes that alt season is around the corner.

But across the internet, in our Discord, and on X you can see a new trend slowly starting to build momentum, one that continues to surprise even the most seasoned investors and traders.

In a move straight out of wartime economics, the Trump administration has begun taking direct equity stakes in critical U.S. industries: from semiconductors and rare earths to steel and lithium.

What started as a clear national security measure in a shifting world is now evolving into a strategic re-industrialization campaign, with Washington quietly accumulating influence over the building blocks of modern power in 2025’s world.

This isn’t free-market capitalism per se, it’s state capitalism with an American flag on it. People have mixed feelings on all of this.

Is it all on the up and up?

Hard to say. The justifications are national security, supply chain resilience, and industrial independence and those arguments hold big weight. But this level of government involvement also blurs the lines between capitalism and command economy.

Does that mean we can’t print on it? Of course not, we should.

It’s reshaping everything from defense procurement to energy policy and our geopolitical foes are noticing.

Yesterday China announced some broad new export restrictions on rare earth elements/minerals and related technologies, tightening its control over various supply chains ahead of a planned meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Could be posturing before the meeting, but I think the names we cover today are going to like this news and move higher.

So far, the government has bought into a handful of key players including Intel INTC 0.00%↑, MP Materials, Lithium Americas LAC 0.00%↑ , Trilogy Metals TMQ 0.00%↑ , and U.S. Steel among them.

But if you read between the lines and follow where the federal dollars, tariffs, and “strategic stake” language are heading, there’s a clear pattern emerging.

The first wave of companies already tapped:

  • Intel (INTC) — Ah yes good old Intel. One of America’s largest semiconductor manufacturers, designing and fabricating chips for computers, AI, and defense systems. Many wrote it off as dead until it had a comeback story fueled by the Trump admin.
    → Likely chosen because semiconductors are critical to national security and domestic tech independence. The U.S. wants leverage over production capacity on U.S. soil.

  • MP Materials (MP) — The only active rare-earth mine and processing facility in North America (SIZE!) located in Mountain Pass, California.
    → Selected to secure domestic access to rare earths needed for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced weapons systems which of course will end up being a key counter to China’s monopoly.

  • Lithium Americas (LAC) — A major lithium developer with U.S. projects in Nevada and global operations in Argentina.
    → Chosen for its role in securing lithium supply chains vital to EV batteries, grid storage, and the broader energy transition.

  • Trilogy Metals (TMQ) — A resource development company focused on copper, zinc, and other critical minerals in Alaska’s Ambler Mining District.
    → Likely chosen for its access to U.S.-based deposits of copper and strategic metals. It is also aligned with efforts to expand Arctic resource development.

  • U.S. Steel (formerly X) — Kind of the start of this pattern. The historic American steelmaker now owned by Nippon Steel however, the U.S. government retained a “golden share” giving veto rights over key decisions.
    → Done to preserve domestic steel production, prevent offshoring of critical manufacturing, and maintain control over infrastructure-related materials.

Tech stocks, crypto, and other reliable names we’ve been talking about are still doing well over the last two weeks but I think there’s a serious opportunity for outsized gains if we are able to get ahead of the ball and identify what MIGHT (key word) be next in the Trump administration’s sights.

Today we’re going through 10 stocks that could be next up for US government involvement or stake. There’s a handful that are already moving like they might be, but let’s take a look at what they actually do and why they are so critical to the security and defense of the US.

What’s Going On?

When we look at what companies might be next on the “glorious state buyout” list, we can examine a number of factors to pick the likely candidates for a strong move higher:

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