Yesterday over $1,000,000,000,000 was wiped from the US stock market on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting in which officials held interest rates steady but delivered a more hawkish than expected message, with Chair Kevin Warsh offering little indication that rate cuts are imminent.

We’re witnessing some absurdity in markets in the last several weeks:

• Major AI, tech, and memory names are continuing to dump hard

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit 5.2% the highest level since the run up to the 2008 financial crisis

• South Korea's stock market collapsed -44% in the last 40 days, erasing over $2 trillion in market cap (Kobeissi Letter) - various outlets are reporting that Korean retail traders have been massacred, reportedly losing close to 56 Trillion Won ($38 Billion Dollars)

• Crude oil has climbed back above $82/barrel

• Mortgage rates are back near cycle highs, freezing much of the U.S. housing market

If you guys missed the full e commerce and shopify tutorial from Tuesday you can find it below:

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Let’s get it.

Equities, Stock Picks

Markets started to sell off sharply yesterday after the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

Three FOMC members dissented in favor of an immediate rate hike which is the largest opposition to a Fed chair in decades. If we are being honest Chair Kevin Warsh offered little in the way of forward guidance (some saying he had a bit of arrogance), He basically reinforced the Fed's data dependent approach.

Prediction market odds for a 25 bps increase in September are on the move sitting at about 56% on Polymarket as of this morning.

Investors seemed to interpret the meeting as more hawkish than expected, sending long dated Treasury yields to fresh multi year highs.

• Samsung’s Q2 operating profit surged +1,800% to a record high amid the booming AI chip demand (Polymarket)

• Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest bought 105,108 SpaceX shares this week

• Adidas fell 17% in European morning trading

• The average founder is getting younger, while the average unicorn founder is getting older, according to A16Z (CoinTelegraph)

• Worker satisfaction with pay and promotion opportunities has hit record lows (WSJ/Unusual Whales)

• Porsche has cut over a third of German jobs (Zerohedge)

• Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20 billion hedge fund, Situational Awareness, is now reportedly raising new capital following the sharp drawdown in AI. Users online have pointed out that Aschenbrenner started his career with none other than FTX

• CNBC reports President Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure shows at least $858 million in assets and 21,000+ trades, linking JPMorgan, Charles Schwab, UBS and Stephens to portions of his investment portfolio (CoinTelegraph)

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Big tech, semis and memory have gotten a nice little clobbering. If you look back it was obvious we were going to get a nice pullback, but now the question is: will this sell off ramp up or bounce soon.

Oddly enough Korean retail traders took the brunt of bruisings with an estimated 320,000 - 360,000 accounts fully liquidated according to Goldman Sachs (Kobeissi Letter).

But degens getting liquidated can be good for us.

Nvidia is now down 10% in the last 5 days, Micron is down 35% in the last month and is down 26% this month.

Sandisk has been a leader of the recent sell off dumping over 50% in the last month, now trading around the $1,000 range. Probably getting a tad bit oversold at this point.

Undoubtedly there will be opportunities emerging from these sell offs. That doesn’t mean scramble to catch a falling knife but if you are a long term DCA investors, can’t hurt to nibble soon if this continues.

My personal short list for starting some buys this week include:

- getting similar vibes to a few years ago

- I will continue to accumulate MSFT this week

- don’t own enough

- An SEC filing on Wednesday revealed BlackRock reported ownership of 38.1 million shares in Ondas common stock, which represents approximately 7.2% of the company’s outstanding shares (Stocktwits)

We will get into crypto more next week but I have actually slowly started to accumulate some Ethereum as of late.

Between the improving regulatory clarity, accelerating institutional adoption, and the tokenization narrative continuing to gain momentum, I really do think the medium to long-term setup is becoming increasingly compelling. Sentiment has been so horrific the last year it feels CLOSE to bottom in my opinion.

Interesting point to keep in mind more broadly, Bitcoin bear markets have lasted an average of 383 days according to River. If you have the start of this most recent one on October 25th 2025, we are now 296 days in.

Robot Dystopia

California startup Satyress just unveiled one of the most insane robots we've seen yet. It’s a towering, demonic centaur-like machine designed to operate where humans can't.

Built for disaster response, wildfire zones, landslides, collapsed buildings, and other high risk environments, the dystopian demon robot combines the mobility of a four legged platform with a human like upper body capable of using tools and manipulating objects remotely.

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If it is successful and people can overlook the spiritual implications, it could change how first responders operate in some of the world's most dangerous environments. One of the strangest parts of the launch (if you look at the website) are the subtle hints at how to stop it if necessary.

They have a slide of weak points to hit with knives and guns and even highlight that the horns will get stuck on the top of most residential door frames…..

We are so far past 1984 at this point and seem to be entering an accelerated dystopian phase of tech.

Whether it's humanoid robots, autonomous weapons, AI agents replacing knowledge workers, or now a mechanical demon centaur built for disaster zones, the pace of change is accelerating faster than society's ability to even process it. Our kids are going to live in a wild wild world.

Global News

Covid Pandemic scumbag Anthony Fauci was forced to make an appearance in front of the Senate yesterday.

It came complete with some big drama including Rand Paul ordering Capitol Police to escort Fauci’s lawyer out.

Rather than answer questions surrounding the government's COVID-19 response and the origins of the pandemic, Fauci repeatedly and smugly invoked the Fifth Amendment over 100 times.

The hearing which focused on the government's COVID-19 response, the origins of the virus, and NIH funded research, quickly turned pretty contentious with Rand Paul and Josh Hawley going at Fauci hard about his schemes to make money during the pandemic and the lies that were peddled.

If, for whatever reason you are still in denial about the Covid pandemic or the origin of Covid, we know a few things now with a high degree of certainty given recent releases and investigations:

Refer a friend

a.) Covid (SARS-CoV-2)was man made and financed by US entities (some led by Fauci)

b.) It came from a lab, a theory labeled by all of big tech and media as conspiracy years ago (remember the Pangolin?)

c.) It likely wasn’t an “accidental leak”

For those who insist on remaining sheep even after getting absolutely mindf*cked for years, this can be a hard pill to swallow, but I’m not interested in protecting feelings at this point.

It was one of the largest psy ops of all time. It was a wealth transfer, a power grab, a terror campaign, and a social experiment all wrapped up in one.

The tribalism, layoffs for those who didn’t get vaccinated, aid schemes, the vitriol towards people, the lies about death rates, the peer pressure and lack of critical thinking, corporations adopting the Covid religion, all of it was disgusting and disappointing. As I have said many times before, the Covid pandemic changed my view on people and society forever.

Among other things, Fauci is believed to have destroyed thousands of records related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

You can view the White House’s full report HERE.

Few of us resisted the psy ops of the Covid Pandemic and I hate to say, but all these years later the vindication really doesn’t hit too hard considering how justice has escaped all involved.

Truly unbelievable.

Other global headlines:

• Ukraine endured one of the largest Russian aerial assaults in months, with Russia launching over 74 missiles and 284 drones overnight

• Russia errantly struck Poland with a Kh-101 cruise missile as a part of the attacks (Visegrad24)

• The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly advanced a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill (86-12) that would significantly tighten pressure on Moscow while also expanding President Trump's tariff authority

• A U.S.-owned natural gas tanker was struck by a drone in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta

• The U.S. has resumed strikes against Iranian-linked targets

I will be online this weekend on the Discord and X so you see you guys around.

Tuesday we will be back.

Andy

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Disclaimer - None of this is meant to be formal financial advice, I am a former corporate sales/trading guy with a monkey brain who writes about my own opinions each week. Do your own research before investing or trading and never make decisions that are contrary to your own personal risk tolerance.

Going to be a rainy day where I live so it’s time to hunker down in my office and hit the trenches.

Markets took a wild turn last night with semis and tech dumping while Korea’s KOSPI index (down 11%) might be giving us an early potential indication of what awaits our positions this morning.

Citadel is now anticipating a rate hike this week from the Fed and the narrative that the memory/AI bubble is losing steam looks like it is gaining some momentum.

There is a lot of noise in the markets right now (there will be good opportunities to buy names on the low) but today I want to focus on a crucial skill in 2026 and beyond, a skill that I consider table stakes for anybody who is trying to:

a.) make more money on top of a day job or corporate role

b.) get wealthy independently

c.) earn back their time

Today we are talking about selling on the internet/e commerce: making money online.

Focusing on my side businesses and online ventures while markets are volatile is one of my favorite things to do. It’s productive and it helps me focus on ways to boost my cash flow so that I can turn right back around and invest that money.

Selling online quite literally changed my entire life in a few years.

It gave me the opportunity to work for myself and leave corporate behind forever, to work anywhere in the world how and when I want, and it is a skill that is replicable.

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You learn to do it once and you can continue iterations of it until you hit big. As I have said in previous guides, I have sold millions of dollars of products on the internet over the course of my life and while I am far from the expert, I know enough to equip you with the basics to get it started for yourself.

Those of you who are already in a sales type roles (banking, sales & trading, tech sales, consulting, etc.) will find that the skills you learn in corporate naturally extend into this realm as well and even give you a leg up.

The opportunity is undeniable.

Global ecommerce sales are projected to reach approximately $6.9 trillion in 2026, up from roughly $6.4 trillion in 2025, and are expected to approach $7.9 trillion by 2028.

You want a part of that? I sure do. One of my favorite parts of selling online is that it is virtually an unlimited pool of customers. I remember having sales jobs where I had one territory or one region. Eventually you prospected MOST potential buyers or clients. You don’t have that problem selling online.

More than 3 billion people shop online worldwide, and by 2028 roughly half of everyone over age 14 is expected to be an online shopper.

If you aren’t running some type of business online you are leaving money on the table AND you are limiting yourself. Eventually, these things can become automated or outsourced which contributes to a major goal we talk about all the time: stopping the act of trading your time for money.

You want to make money while you’re on vacation, while you’re out to dinner, or while you’re at the gym.

It accumulates quick. We have done posts on this in the past including the Simple Guide To Make Money Online but today is a grittier and more direct add on (you can read the old guides after this or before).

Today I am going to walk you through:

• Sourcing your products

• Vetting and testing them (make them different)

• Setting up an online store front with Shopify

• Creating a brand that will sell

• Launching your online store

With today’s guide you can get set up and get things moving so you are one step closer to building a business online that can help you gain financial freedom, eventually leave your job, or just supplement your income to offset the expensive world we live in now. Investing and betting on yourself is non negotiable if you want to undertake this pursuit.

So much of our world now centers on rampant consumption. If you want to be a size lord you need to focus on CREATING AND SELLING.

Every day millions of people wake up, open Instagram, TikTok, Amazon, Etsy, or Shopify stores, and buy things. Most people participate only as robotic consumers.

As I have said before, the people building true wealth are increasingly becoming owners of things and creators.

If you can learn to source products, build a brand, and convince strangers on the internet to trust you with their money, you’ve developed a skill that can pay you for decades and the best part is, every month it is getting easier with automation, AI, and new apps to help streamline it all so you can focus on the big picture stuff.

Making money online is simple. All it requires is that you:

• Choose to start (today ideally)

• Stay consistent over time

• Build something you are proud of

The money will follow, you will learn the blueprint, and you will be able reduce your dependency on one income, potentially sell your company/brand, and increase your financial freedom and prosperity.

Let’s get into it.

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Time to fight your demons and slay the Monday morning dragon. I am personally mainlining espresso and peppermint zyn at a Dunkin Donuts at 6am writing this and preparing myself for the fat workload I need to take on today.

Quick schedule for this week:

• Today we will have a quick Monday post on need to follow news and market themes this week (some interesting shifts over the weekend)

• Tomorrow morning is my refresh guide on How to Make Money Online. In this guide for paid subs I will walk you through how to sell with Shopify and other apps/websites step by step. You will be able to set up an online store after reading it. Will be very helpful if you review the original below before tomorrow. Best time to start making side income online was yesterday. Second best time is now.

• Thursday we will revisit the week’s events. I might even go on one of my crazy rants

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Make sure you hop on the Discord and X today to keep up with daily updates as the week goes by.

Let’s get into it.

Market Preview For The Week

Over the weekend there were some interesting little reversals and shifts that took place including a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

Oil dumped and stock futures ripped on this news, with Bitcoin nailing a nice little pop as well. This week is likely going to be explosive on a few fronts with big earnings and the Fed poised to make a decision mid week.

Buckle up, could be some excellent opportunities to add some beaten down names.

• The S&P 500's net profit margin is on track to surge to 15.7% for Q2 2026, the highest in data going back to 2009 (Kobeissi Letter)

• Nvidia announced it will invest $1 billion in South Korean Naver’s AI project

• Michael Saylor of announced this morning: Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $525 million, achieving 2.1 years of dividend coverage. As of 7/26/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserve and $3.75 billion in our USD Reserve

• Crypto exchange BitMart has begun winding down its trading platform, gradually suspending new registrations, deposits and orders ahead of a full trading halt on Aug. 26 (TheBlock)

• BNY Mellon plans to launch 24/7 tokenized U.S. Treasury settlement by 2027, with private blockchain pilots beginning by year-end (CoinBureau)

• Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi has said the economy is gaining momentum, citing the lowest inflation rate among G7 countries (CoinTelegraph)

• Remarks and other outlets are reporting that Kamala Harris might be preparing to run for President again in 2028

• Defense beast Anduril is reportedly in talks to raise money at a valuation of around $100,000,000,000 (WhaleInsider)

• Circle announced that the company has acquired fundamental assets from the IBM blockchain patent portfolio, including 680+ patent families and nearly 1,000 issued patents worldwide (bullish)

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Tech Earnings

Big week for earnings on the heels of the print, which crushed, but was swiftly sent to the depths of hell by Jim Cramer. He just couldn’t help himself.

My calls got absolutely decimated but we push on for more gains elsewhere.

and on Wednesday should be big along with on Thursday.

I hate to say it, but these prints will likely exacerbate the current stutter we are watching in equities or pull us out of it, IF we can continue with the good news on the Iran front. To be honest I wouldn’t count on that given the constant flip flopping.

One thing I think that is worth remembering (especially if you are apeing options ahead of earnings) is that simply beating earnings estimates may not be enough this time around (as we saw with Intel).

After the runs we’ve had over the past year, Wall Street and investor expectations have risen dramatically (almost comically high).

Investors already assume these companies will post strong revenue and earnings growth, that’s kind of a given. The real question is whether management teams can convince Wall Street that the momentum is going to remain actually sustainable.

That’s a bit tougher to do in this climate.

I will be looking to add to my and positions this week.

ECB + Lagarde

Europe is dealing with more than a mass migration crisis and war in Ukraine.

One under the radar political theme worth watching this week (that I think us Americans ignore generally) is the future of European Central Bank and President Christine Lagarde.

Prediction markets like Polymarket have become increasingly volatile around the possibility that she announces plans to step down before her term officially expires next year in October. Polymarket odds right now sit at 23% that Lagarde is out this year.

The Oracle by Polymarket

THE LONG GOODBYE

This is a cross-post from Polymarket Institutional Research. To receive future issues, sign up here…

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9 days ago · 23 likes · Polymarket

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The theory, highlighted by Jon Turek, who is on Substack as , is basically that Lagarde may prefer to announce her departure before France's presidential election next spring, which would allow current French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to have some greater influence over selecting her replacement.

You can check out the full article above.

With Marine Le Pen's National Rally leading in many current polls, the composition of France's next government could significantly change the balance of power surrounding one of the world's most important central banks. French business leaders now expect inflation to run at 2.5% over the next year which of course is going to add another layer of complexity for ECB policymakers moving into the latter half of 2026 and next year.

Anyways I know this stuff can be boring, but there are some new European political risks beginning to creep back onto the radar of investors we should pay attention to, especially if you have investment exposure.

We will continue to watch this trend closely.

Fed FOMC meeting

Fed week baby.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a volatile scene.

On Wednesday (paired with the big tech earnings I listed before) we have:

2:00 PM ET - FOMC Rate Decision & Policy Statement

2:30 PM ET - New Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference

Warsh’s speech is likely going to be the most market moving event of the week. Degenerates will be focused on his answers and context around the following big questions:

• Whether the Fed still sees additional rate hikes this year

• How policymakers view recent spike in oil prices

• Inflation expectations for rest of year

• Any details on labor market strength

Right now rate hike odds are at about 36%. That would be a pretty jarring event in my opinion and likely lead to some insta-dumping.

And for those unfamiliar there is no updated dot plot.

If you have no clue what that is, every few meetings, each Fed official anonymously places a dot on a chart showing where they think interest rates should be at the end of this year, next year, and beyond that.

This week we don’t have it. So it is likely every word in the statement and Warsh's press conference will carry more weight than usual.

Then Thursday we also get Q2 Advance GDP data and Core PCE Inflation which will likely shape how our bags perform through week end into the beginning of August.

We will get into it on Thursday, but the bullish tingle I feel in my plums about crypto is still there. They might be ready to take to the farmer’s market soon but let’s focus on equities this week and see how it all shapes up.

Enjoy the week and I will see you guys tomorrow for the deep dive on e commerce and making money online. Pumped to drop this one since I have some super recent examples of businesses I am working on right now.

Godspeed.

Andy

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Disclaimer - None of this is meant to be formal financial advice, I am a former corporate sales/trading guy with a monkey brain who writes about my own opinions each week. Do your own research before investing or trading and never make decisions that are contrary to your own personal risk tolerance.

Hope the week is going well and you are stacking bands and cashing checks. We have had 300+ new subscribers since July 7th so welcome to all of you.

Some exciting market development this week that we will start off with and then we will dive into a basic real estate overview.

Seems like folks are getting back into the swing of things. Maybe people are returning from vacation or maybe it is the movement in markets, either way, welcome back if you took a short hiatus.

If you missed Tuesday’s post make sure to check it out below, it had some solid reception.

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We will be monitoring the Iran and Strait of Hormuz situation through the weekend given the fact it seems to be ramping up again. Truly just never ending.

Financial Markets & Equities

Interesting week so far in the equity world.

As of market open this morning the Dow is down 600 points, the S&P and Nasdaq are down over 1%, and crude oil is over $100 after Iran backed militias claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi tankers.

More noise, and might use the day to add to some of my positions. That being said it looks like some of the major narratives are showing some cracks.

is getting hammered today down about 7% after reporting cash flow is negative for the first time in many years and is hurting as well, just hours after Jim Cramer said the “bulls don’t care”.

• Deutsche Bank headquarters has been raided for a third time this year - fire up the memes again (Unusual Whales/FT)

• The EU has fined Google $1,020,000,000.00 for favoring its own products across Search and the Play Store (Polymarket Money)

• Japan is considering regulating Pokémon cards amid concerns over counterfeiting and resale (CoinTelegraph)

• US 30 year Treasury yields have now traded above 5% for 27 days in this year which is the most since 2007 (Bloomberg). The US 10Y Note Yield officially surged above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025 (Kobeissi Letter)

• Amazon is hiring a Bitcoin & Crypto Ecosystem Lead to drive blockchain integration and crypto adoption (Whale Insider)

• is reporting earnings after market close today (I yolo-ed a few $115 calls for fun)

• The United States Oil Fund LP is up a whopping 87% this year

Yields are now soaring globally right now.

What is the TLDR monkey brained takeaway?

Let’s go back to Freshman year econ class. Bond yields represent the cost of borrowing money. So when we see them rise globally, capital becomes more expensive for governments, businesses, and consumers.

You get higher mortgage rates, more expensive corporate debt, increased financing costs, and tighter financial conditions across the entire economy.

And remember!

The U.S. now has a whopping $40 trillion in national debt. Every sustained increase in yields means the Treasury eventually has to refinance some maturing debt at significantly higher interest rates. That then causes interest expense to balloon, which will then crowd out other government spending. We see the same issue emerging in countries like Japan, France, Germnay, and the U.K.

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On the stock pick front…..

Our play was looking better mid week after the company's preliminary fourth quarter update showed some dramatic improvement in profitability. Gross margins are now expected to come in between 15% and 17%, which is nearly double prior guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%.

The company pointed to this being driven by a more favorable customer and product mix.

Even more impressive in my opinion is that Supermicro disclosed more than $60 billion in new orders during the quarter, pushing its backlog to a record high and reinforcing our view that AI infrastructure spending remains one of the strongest secular growth trends in the market.

While their revenue is expected to land near the low end of guidance, the sharp improvement in margins might just suggest they are gaining a bit more pricing power and operating leverage as demand for AI servers continues to accelerate.

Good to see after the negative headlines and FUD on this name. I hope that they catch up to the other AI behemoth plays of the last year. Readers would be printing.

Defense has also done well with the continued Iran tension after a little bit of a slowdown.

Anduril and Archer unveiled Thunder this week, the Dune-esque autonomous attack aircraft designed to operate alongside crewed helicopters. It has counter drone tech, missiles, the whole nine yards.

We also saw Israel approving a significant increase in defense spending as regional conflicts continue to reinforce this multi year rearmament cycle we see on battlefields across the globe.

I think most ordinary people are beginning to recognize that this isn't a temporary surge in military budgets, but a structural shift toward higher defense spending and new operations by the Trump administration across much of the developed world.

It's no surprise then that many of the names we've been highlighting continue to perform well over the last week including:

(up 24% in last 5 days)

(posts earnings August 4th)

(just beat on EPS and Revenue)

All these are posting some gains so far this week as capital continues flowing into the sector.

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Amid ongoing updates from the Middle East today the Kobeissi Letter highlighted that Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf said that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions:

“In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil. If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe”

President Trump is reportedly considering new escalation in response saying this week he is considering “major combat operations”. The pain literally never ends for us.

It should be very clear to consistent readers but I remain extremely constructive on defense as one of the defining investment themes of the decade, primarily because it increasingly marries AI/drones with heightened confrontation between the major powers AND big spend from Europe, Israel, and the US.

Crypto

Hate to say it, but some of our momentum got knee capped with , yields, and other tech dumps.

Before today crypto looked to be in a holding pattern awaiting a positive development related to the Clarity Act.

It was flatlined just content to wait while Bitcoin ranged around $66,000, now down to about $64,500 at the time I am writing this (9:05am).

There’s continued discussion online as to whether or not the bottom of this bear cycle is close with the consensus being sometime in October. I said last week I am a bit wary with everyone agreeing on this timeline.

If you think that the majority are wrong and the bottom might be in already (or we are close to it) there’s a solid window here to position, especially before Clarity potentially goes through. There’s also the possibility AI rotations come to crypto.

The Clarity Act seems to be close to approaching do or die time now, with some positive developments coming out. After months of political gridlock, the most recent reports suggest negotiators are closing in on a compromise over ethics language with the latest version barring presidents and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets.

Convenient timing for Trump lmao.

I haven’t checked today yet but you can view the latest odds of Clarity passing on Polymarket. I think the most entertaining outcome there is extreme doubt and then it suddenly makes it through unexpectedly.

We are also starting to get some major institutional figures giving their opinions on Clarity. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said this week:

"I’m very supportive of moving the Clarity Act forward, so we can get some market structure in place."

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has said:

“If we bridge the gap on ethics tonight or tomorrow, then I think we’ve got a shot.”

I am not purchasing crypto today, when we get a conclusion to Clarity I think we will have a better idea of when this market bottoms and what catalyst it will take to reverse us into a bull bender.

Real Estate Check In

As I prefaced on Tuesday I am far from a real estate expert but I can try to break down the current snapshot in easy terms for you all. If we have experts or folks in the space that want to share additional insights/regional takeaways in the comments please feel free.

For most of our readers (age 20-35ish) home ownership is likely a major goal. Post Covid has proven to be a difficult time for young people to achieve that goal for a multitude of reasons, but chiefly, much higher prices and rates.

The money print fest in 2020 (that you can see below) absolutely catapulted sales prices. Right now on Polymarket there’s about a 30% chance that the median home value in the US ends up being somewhere between 419K to 426K by September 30th.

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For years, investors and young folks have been waiting for the U.S. housing market to “break.”

It hasn't and instead, we've entered something a bit stranger, just take a look at some of these headlines from July:

• As reported by CBS News, U.S. home prices have indeed risen for 36 straight months, reaching a record median price of $440,660 for existing homes in June

• 46% of home sellers have offered concessions to buyers, an all time high, per Redfin (Unusual Whales)

• Roughly 227,500 properties filed for foreclosure so far this year, a 21% increase from last year and a 30% increase from two years ago (Barchart)

As a 33 year old with a family I am beginning to look a bit more seriously at the market. We rent a larger townhouse now in a great town and as someone who prefers to remain liquid I am not crazy about caving to finally buy, but we likely need the space.

The quick math I just don’t like:

Let’s take a $1 million home with a 20% down payment. That leaves an $800,000 mortgage. At 6.75% on a 30 year fixed loan, the monthly principal and interest payment is roughly $5,190.

Over the life of the loan, you’ll pay approximately $1.87 million in total, meaning more than $1.06 million goes to interest alone! That’s before factoring in property taxes, homeowners insurance, maintenance, utilities, or dreaded HOA fees.

Now compare that to the same mortgage at 3%, where the monthly payment falls to roughly $3,370 and total interest over 30 years is only about $415,000.

The difference?

Nearly $650,000 in additional interest simply because rates doubled.

Absolutely absurd.

You are 100% better off buying in cash and I read a report from our town from last year. Almost 45% of properties were purchased with zero mortgage lol. Bonkers stuff.

Reality is we have a market that's largely frozen in place.

Millions of homeowners remain locked into those sweet sweet 2-4% mortgages they have little incentive to give up while new prospective buyers continue looking at financing costs that remain more than the double pandemic era lows. Those people who purchased then really made out like bandits.

If you check in recently, the average person online thinks real estate is starting to crash a bit but it isn’t (could be cope).

Instead we’re seeing an unusual split combo. You have:

• Existing home sales remaining pretty sluggish

• Home prices continuing to hit record highs nationally (it’s absurd)

• Inventory slowly rebuilding

• Mortgage rates remaining stubbornly elevated around the mid 6% range (and likely headed higher)

So I think we’re in a weird little stand off where people don’t want to sell because they refinanced into 2-4% mortgages and potential buyers don’t want to buy because financing costs doubled.

Refer a friend

The result we get is very little turnover with a market that is not defined by collapsing prices but by the fact you have collapsing transaction volume. Existing home sales remain historically subdued even as national home prices continue hovering near record highs. Take one drive around/check zillow and you will see some boomers asking laughable levels for $400,000 homes.

I can only speak for myself (in the Northeast) but where I live if you want the basics (no remodeling or additional work needed) you are going to have to pay $1M - $1.2M.

You CAN get a nice house for $800,000 to $950,000 BUT it is going to require some work within the first two years to either re do the kitchen, upgrade older parts, or re-do some floors/rooms etc.

People’s own personal financial situations dictate the risks they want to take. For me?

If I need to pull the trigger I will, but my preference is to always play it a bit conservative as I like flexibility. If I were to buy soon I would play it safe and shoot for something well within my means that I could put some work into myself.

Unfortunately if you are in the market now, the implications are fairly straightforward.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates of course, but its policy heavily influences Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury, which serves as the benchmark for 30 year mortgages.

If the markets continue pricing in additional rate hikes (as we pointed out on Polymarket earlier), mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated or even push higher from their current mid-6% range, where they’ve already climbed to the highest levels of 2026.

Something’s got to give.

For now I remain a lurker, wondering if I will ever be able to achieve the American Dream white picket fence and crisp green lawn while Somali daycare scammers in Minnesota buy McMansions with my tax money.

Have a great rest of the week guys. We're almost in August, and with it comes the gradual shift out of the summer lull.

Vacations begin winding down, kids head back to school, Wall Street desks start filling back up, and attention inevitably returns to the markets and work.

Historically, this is when I notice volume begins picking up and newer narratives start taking shape heading into the fall. We'll be keeping a close eye on the biggest opportunities and developments so you're positioned before the crowd catches on.

See you in the next one.

Andy

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Disclaimer - None of this is meant to be formal financial advice, I am a former corporate sales/trading guy with a monkey brain who writes about my own opinions each week. Do your own research before investing or trading and never make decisions that are contrary to your own personal risk tolerance.

Going to be a stormy day in the Northeast, so a good day for me to drop a new post on how you can pull ahead of the herd. You didn’t subscribe here to learn how to be average did you?

A post I made on X this weekend went mildly viral to my surprise.

Some of the people in the comments were pissed or didn’t seem to understand what I was getting at here.

I could have said $1M is nothing anymore, and that would be mostly true. In fact, $1 million today has roughly the same purchasing power as just $116,000 did in 1970.

Pretty absurd.

I picked $2M because that would roughly assume you might have a home paid off and $1 to $1.2M invested or in cash. At any other point in human history you would be pretty much set for life with $2M.

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Decades of inflation have quietly eroded purchasing power, while the cost of housing, healthcare, education, and countless other necessities has continued climbing. And despite years of aggressive interest rate hikes, inflation still hasn't fully returned to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In fact, prediction markets on Polymarket currently expect July's CPI report to come in around 3.4% year-over-year, suggesting price pressures remain stubbornly elevated.

The simple point I was trying to convey here, is that if you have 556,850 people with $30M how many do you have at $20M? At $10M? At $5M?

Millions. A good estimate is 5–7 million people worldwide.

That’s a lot of people.

Critics in the comments said “DO yOU kNoW How ManY pEOpLE ThEre ARe On EArth?!” And my response is, do you really want to be like the billions of other people on earth?

I sure don’t.

Especially not today when everything’s expensive as hell and those with wealth are able to afford better everything: homes, healthcare, neighborhoods, schools, food, etc.

I’m making a pretty simple assumption about ALL OF YOU as well. I am assuming all of you want to be wealthy. That you want to be winners and to try to come out on top. No shame if not, but that’s how I have always been programmed. I’m not concerned with the opinions of people who are content living a below average, average, or uninspiring life. For those of us who want more, we have to come to terms with a major realization:

The world has become exponentially more competitive.

Most people are still playing by rules that worked in 1985 and on top of that they don’t realize that wealth isn't the only story anymore, competition is.

You make $80,000 on your $1,000,000 invested (that you made with this guide)?

That’s great but the person with $30 million just made $2.4 million without working any harder than you did. That difference isn’t just a bigger number on a brokerage statement. It’s another house, another business acquisition, another angel investment, another private equity fund, another rental property, another opportunity that most people will never even see. And next year those assets compound again.

This is why it feels like you’re running on a treadmill while others seem to be riding an escalator with a jet fuel propulsion system.

Making matters worse, there is simply more money chasing assets than at any point in history.

Governments have created trillions of dollars over the past decade. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, family offices, private equity firms, and corporations are all competing for the same stocks, real estate, businesses, and scarce assets.

Today for our paid subs we will review:

• All assets I hold (and believe will be strong winners in the coming years)

• How to think about asset accumulation and ownership

• Normie behaviors to avoid

• Market signs reinforcing what may be coming sooner than most think

Today I want to explain to you how to stop competing with the average person, and start thinking like the tiny fraction of people who have consistently been able to pull away from the pack.

You have less time than you think and financial markets have confirmed a few trends that can grant you some serious opportunities if you know where to focus.

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Hope everyone’s week is going well.

Today we’re talking on two important items:

• Bullish crypto developments while equities sell off (assets I am watching very closely)

• President Trump’s address last night on election fraud and Chinese interference in the US

We’re going to start with crypto, despite the election story being pretty jarring.

I am not going to mince words here, I can feel some serious momentum building beneath the surface of this bear market. You make it through enough cycles and you can just tell when things are close to shifting.

While crypto has quietly and consistently strengthened fundamentally beneath the surface, the same can’t be said for equities. After a powerful run through the first half of the year, cracks are beginning to emerge across parts of the stock market.

Over the past week, investors have aggressively rotated out of many of the highest-flying AI and semiconductor names as concerns around lofty valuations, crowded positioning, and slowing momentum have triggered a sharp pullback in some of the market’s biggest winners:

• is now down almost 20% this month

• is down 10% this month

• Several AI infrastructure names have shed hundreds of billions of dollars in combined market value

• is dumping, now down 21% in the last month

• The S&P and Nasdaq are losing steam

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None of this necessarily signals the end of the equity bull market.

However, after a prolonged period of outperformance, it does suggest that investors and degenerates globally may need to broaden their search for opportunities. As we've discussed previously, events like the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO often coincide with periods of peak investor enthusiasm and abundant liquidity.

While no single event marks a market top, these moments have historically served as reminders that leadership can rotate quickly as capital searches for the next opportunity like hungry hyenas on the savannah.

Crypto has quietly been telling a very different story in my humble opinion.

Rather than deteriorating fundamentals, the asset class has continued to benefit from improving regulation, institutional capital inflows, tokenization initiatives, and accelerating adoption by some of the world's largest financial institutions.

Time to pay closer attention if you want to reap the benefits.

The CLARITY Act is still alive, but it has entered the difficult final stretch in the Senate. The House passed its version in July 2025 by a bipartisan 294-134 vote. On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version by a 15–9 bipartisan vote, and the bill was subsequently placed on the Senate legislative calendar, making it eligible for floor consideration.

Lawmakers are now working to combine competing committee proposals into a final bill that would establish clear rules for digital assets, divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC, and create a formal regulatory framework for crypto exchanges and token issuers.

The legislation still faces political obstacles and will likely require bipartisan support to reach the 60 votes needed in the Senate, but it has progressed further than any previous attempt to establish comprehensive crypto market structure in the United States.

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Polymarket odds are creeping lower, with the chances of the Act being signed into law at 32% in 2026 right now. Remember though, bull markets aren't built on one headline, they're built on hundreds of small developments that gradually change the investment landscape.

Looking across the past month, it's becoming increasingly difficult to argue that institutional adoption is slowing.

If anything, the pace appears to be accelerating:

• Crypto.com announced they had raised $400 million from Citadel Securities at a $20 billion valuation

• Japan officially passed a law recognizing crypto as “financial assets”

• Roughly 38.0% of the total Bitcoin supply remains unmoved for 4+ years (BitcoinMagazine)

• Tradable plans to bring up to $1B in private credit assets to Stellar (CoinTelegraph)

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $368M over 3 straight sessions ending July 16, flipping July's flows back to positive after nearly $7B in outflows across May and June (CoinMarketCap)

JPMorgan turned more constructive on Strategy this week, citing its expanded $3 billion cash reserve as a meaningful improvement to the company's financial position.

Analysts also noted that institutional demand for Bitcoin futures has remained pretty resilient, viewing it as another sign that size lords continue accumulating despite recent volatility.

Let’s look at some specific projects/assets.

I will die on this hill. Chainlink (LINK) continued to build institutional momentum after Robinhood selected the protocol as the core oracle and cross chain infrastructure provider for Robinhood Chain, its new Ethereum based blockchain that has seen some insane engagement and use in the last week, with big initial runners like CashCat (that have since rugged).

Chainlink's technology will secure and deliver pricing data for Robinhood's tokenized stocks while enabling interoperability across multiple blockchains. This announcement further reinforces Chainlink's position as one of the foundational infrastructure providers powering the tokenization of real world assets, a trend embraced by several major financial institutions throughout this down period.

I spend a lot of time talking about Chainlink but Ondo Finance (ONDO) has also emerged as one of the leading companies driving the tokenization of real world assets.

On the 15th Ondo Finance announced the launch of tokenized U.S. equities built on infrastructure connected to the existing U.S. securities settlement system.

The move represents another step toward bringing traditional financial assets on-chain while maintaining compatibility with the rails that underpin today's capital markets and institutional infrastructure.

Then on the 16th (yesterday) the company followed up by announcing a strategic partnership with Japan's SBI Group, one of the country's largest financial institutions. The collaboration aims to expand tokenized equities into the Japanese market, highlighting the growing international momentum behind blockchain based financial infrastructure.

Aave continued expanding beyond its crypto native roots this week, extending its V4 protocol to Avalanche as it pushes further into the rapidly growing real world asset (RWA) market.

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Basically the expansion is designed to support lending against tokenized financial assets, including U.S. Treasuries, money market funds, private credit, and other traditional securities, rather than relying exclusively on cryptocurrencies as collateral.

It's another example of decentralized finance evolving from a niche crypto ecosystem into infrastructure capable of supporting mainstream financial markets. The “lack of use cases” critics are always citing for crypto are gaining pretty significant traction while normies look purely at price.

If there’s one paid post you should be sure to read during this down period in crypto it’s the one below (and part II in our archive).

Once the sentiment turns and we start to rally again, things will move very quickly.

Next week I am happy to do a full review of my portfolio across asset classes, but for now here is my crypto watchlist. Keep in mind this is just my opinion and it is not formal financial advice, do your own research.

I have started adding more of all of this:

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We find ourselves in one of the more unpredictable market environments we’ve seen in years.

Inflation has proven to be stickier than many people expected, the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 5%, and after months of expecting rate cuts, investors are once again debating whether the Federal Reserve could be forced to raise interest rates. Odds of a rate hike are now at nearly 72% right now on Polymarket.

At the same time, AI spending remains explosive, corporate earnings have largely held up, equity markets are still trading near record highs, and we just entered what feels like the 59th reversal back to War with Iran in 3 months. It is truly maddening stuff.

It’s an unusual backdrop and nobody knows for sure what to expect next.

Higher borrowing costs would normally pressure valuations, yet many of the world’s largest companies continue to attract enormous amounts of capital. That disconnect makes one question more important than ever.

Where is the smart money actually positioning and how can we benefit from that?

Fortunately, we aren’t flying completely blind.

According to Goldman Sachs’ Prime Brokerage data, hedge funds have spent the past several weeks actively managing risk rather than abandoning their highest conviction themes (and the ones making them billions).

The biggest takeaway is semiconductors and adjacent sectors most people don’t think about or get exposure to.

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At first glance, the flow data looks bearish. Hedge funds have been net sellers of semiconductor and chip equipment stocks, with the group becoming one of the most sold sub sectors over the past month.

But there is more to the story under the surface.

With the Q2 13F filing deadline now just weeks away, I spent the last several days digging through SEC filings, investor letters, conference appearances, and recent disclosures to identify where some of the world’s largest hedge funds are placing their highest conviction bets.

Your goal shouldn’t be to just copy billionaire investors, it’s to understand the themes, sectors, and companies attracting institutional capital before the next wave of filings becomes public. By looking at this we can not only get a sense of true risk on sentiment and market positioning, but also the themes and names that might outperform through the end of the summer and year.

Right now, with Iran flaring back up and more uncertainty in markets this can be an excellent input into how we form our perspective and approach new purchases/cuts.

The Q2 2026 Form 13F filing deadline is August 14, 2026.

Now bear in mind when we look back retroactively at Q1, a 13F is delayed, it does not reveal short positions, and it does not show every security or hedge inside a portfolio. A fund may have already added, reduced, or completely exited a position by the time we see the filing.

Still, these disclosures remain one of the best tools available for identifying:

• Where sophisticated capital is concentrating

• Which companies are attracting repeat institutional conviction

• How elite managers are expressing major themes like AI, energy, infrastructure, China, and consumer technology

In reviewing them and examining the hottest themes we can get a better idea of which names might be ready to recover and run again, and which ones are falling out of favor. This fine morning we will be taking a look at:

• Pershing Square

• Appaloosa

• Tiger Global

• Coatue

• Citadel

• Millennium

Collectively, the hedge funds we’re about to examine oversee roughly $300 billion in capital, making them some of the most influential investors in global markets.

One or two ideas from the patterns we will talk through this morning can genuinely change your portfolio over the next few years or prevent you from cutting a name poised to absolutely send when market conditions improve.

Let’s get it.

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We saw a big influx of new subscribers over the last week so if you just found your way to and Arb Letter, this is your starting point.

*For long term followers or subscribers, this might be a welcomed refresher, but feel free to skip it if you’ve been with us since the beginning (regular post will go out for paid subs tomorrow). If you ar…

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Hope your week is going well so far.

Welcome to our new subscribers. If you want to get up to speed with the top posts from Arb Letter this year you can find them below:

You Are Not Bullish Enough

Making Money Online in 2026

Today we’re going to dive into…

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Americans are likely just getting back into the swing of things after the 4th of July, nursing multi day hangovers or easing into the office with a nice sunburn. Norwegians and the English are ecstatic after some incredible world cup games and my condolences are with the Mexicans and Brazilians on this fine July morning.

Sadly the United States was officially eliminated from the FIFA World Cup after losing 4-1 to Belgium.

The memes are absolutely incredible though.

One thing you start to pick up on when you work on the internet for years is when the lull periods come. Mid July and the 4th weekend are notoriously slow and often lower for engagement across the board.

I get it. Weather is nicer. You’re on vacation. Shorter weeks, remote work, etc.

BUT you shouldn’t let slower summer months allow you to lose the ability to stay on top of market trends.

The last 48 hours have been sneaky important for crypto and I can guarantee you 90% of normies missed it all.

So good on you for being here.

Stuff is cooking behind the scenes and those who are paying attention are going to reap the benefits. This morning we are going to cram as much of it as we can into this post.

The big news yesterday in crypto was Saylor announcing that had sold about 3,588 Bitcoin. He previously sold 32 BTC, which sparked a bit of fear and condemnation from those who held him to his word. In retrospect, that very well may have been him testing the market for this larger clip that was sold between July 1st and 5th.

Many are saying that this is just the start. If Saylor, the god king of conviction, is selling, then what does that mean for the market? $30,000? $40,000 soon?

Others think this marks the start of a potential bottom.

Every major crypto bear market has looked different on the surface, but the anatomy of the bottom has been remarkably consistent.

Still, most people miss it. And each time it offers a golden ticket to wealth.

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Bitcoin fell 94% after the 2011 crash, roughly 86% following the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014–2015, another 84% during the 2018 ICO bust, and approximately 77% after the 2021 peak amid the failures of Terra, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, and FTX.

Each cycle was accompanied by predictions that Bitcoin would never recover, yet each ultimately gave way to a new all-time high. By studying these market bottoms chronologically, we can identify the recurring patterns (both technical and psychological) that have historically signaled when fear was reaching its peak and opportunity was quietly beginning to emerge.

The current cycle has presented a different challenge for degens and traders.

Rather than a traditional 70–90% bear market, Bitcoin has spent much of the past year digesting an explosive advance through a combination of sharp corrections, prolonged consolidations, and repeated waves of pessimism.

You will likely remember, we never quite got that insane euphoric blow off top which caught many by surprise. We also never got a traditional alt season beyond some meme coin madness and animal coin mayhem.

The October liquidation event erased hundreds of billions of dollars from the crypto market in a matter of hours and days, triggering widespread fear that the bull market had run its course. As in prior cycles, headlines quickly shifted toward recession fears, ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty around Iran, and claims that crypto had entered another prolonged downturn.

And here we are. Chopping endlessly after some steady periods of down only that made even the most seasoned crypto trader pucker up. Still there is a 14% chance right on Polymarket that we pass $72,500 by the end of July. A 28% chance we climb back above $70,000. Not too shabby.

It’s anyone’s guess what comes next BUT, what I am starting to get excited about is the despair on the timeline.

People are despondent. They do not care. Go out to bars or talk with your working age cousins or randoms at pregames, NOBODY is talking about crypto right now.

And as I have said many times over the years, THIS is where you make money on the long side. When all hope looks lost and the last bear is piling into the trade, convinced he is going to make enough money from shorting to retire from his cowardly ways.

You don’t have to time the bottom perfectly but you simply cannot be late before things turn truly vertical again.

Are we about to god dump again or does this mark the beginning of the official bottom?

There’s going to be a significant amount of money to be made if it ends up being the latter, so let’s look at the evidence. And just like every cycle before this, I am going to get the folks in 2 months or 6 months or whenever we rebound, DMing me saying “is it too late to buy?!” and I’m just going to chuckle, because it really is as easy as paying attention to when the vibes shift, reading Arb Letter, and acting.

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Man it’s hot as hell where I live this week. My indoors project of the week was buying my young son a Betta Fish at Petco. Forgot how much I used to nerd out on designing aquariums. When I was younger my mom never let me get a Leopard Gecko which was world shattering and I still harbor that trauma today.

Anyways hope the little guy makes it past the 48 hour marker or I will be hard pressed for entertainment during this heat wave.

Some quick housekeeping items:

• I will be dropping a 250th anniversary MERICA post for all subs this weekend for those who want a quick commemorative edition of Arb Letter

• If you missed it I dropped The United States of Socialism earlier this week detailing the concerning surge of socialist support in the US, local election outcomes, and what this means for the West

• I think it is an excellent time to revisit our post The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity as tokenization activity continues to explode during this bear market in crypto

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Some excellent matches for futbol fans around the world over the last two weeks. Polymarket has France as the current favorite to take it all with a whopping 35% chance currently, followed by Messi’s Argentina and the lackluster Spaniards.

I was pulling for Ivory Coast solely based on the good memories I had playing FIFA with Drogba in my college dorm.

Markets & Equities

Small breather yesterday.

Semiconductor stocks were hit as investors took profits in some of the market's biggest AI winners. After the monster rally we've seen over the past several months, a pullback in chips was almost inevitable.

Software, financials, and communications names held up much better, with Meta standing out after unveiling plans to monetize excess AI computing capacity through its own cloud infrastructure.

That announcement reinforced a theme we’ve been talking about for months.

The red hot AI story is gradually shifting from companies spending enormous sums on infrastructure to figuring out how to generate meaningful returns on those investments. Not too concerned, just think we’re seeing some profit taking and reallocating of capital ahead of today's jobs report and the long holiday weekend.

Markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

• Micron pledged a $250 million investment in Trump Accounts for America’s 250th birthday

• 7 out of 10 market peak indicators have now been triggered according to Bank of America (Unusual Whales/BOA)

• This week Anthropic officially relaunched Claude Fable 5 worldwide

• President Trump has declined to renew the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement

• Boston Dynamics CEO said this week that “America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”

• Robinhood is set to launch crypto trading in UK

• San Francisco startup Weave Robotics officially launched Isaac, an AI-powered home robot designed to autonomously fold laundry

• The US economy adds 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations of 114,000 (Kobeissi Letter/BLS)

• OpenAI has proposed giving the Trump Administration a 5% stake in the company (Financial Times)

Super Micro found itself back in the headlines this week after fresh scrutiny surrounding the company's AI server business. Authorities in Taiwan are investigating an alleged network that may have routed servers equipped with restricted Nvidia AI chips into China, raising new questions about export compliance throughout the supply chain.

Coming on the heels of last year’s accounting controversy and ongoing governance concerns, the market is showing very little tolerance for additional uncertainty.

Short term this sucks for our position BUT I am still not convinced there isn’t some value to be had here (more on this later).

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Crypto

Crypto sits in a pretty interesting spot right now in my opinion.

President Trump has faced some intense scrutiny this week over what some people are calling exploitative behavior in crypto markets since his administration began.

Financial disclosures revealed that crypto-related ventures have become one of the largest contributors to his personal wealth (he reportedly earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto-related businesses over the past year).

This includes over $600M from the TRUMP meme coin that rugged a generation of retail lol. Don’t even get me started on MELANIA.

Outside the drama I am cautiously optimistic as Bitcoin moves back to $61,000 and Ethereum shows a little bit of fight in it today.

Data from Santiment has revealed a handful of encouraging signals suggesting the market could be getting closer to a meaningful bottom.

The crypto data firm has pointed to widespread trader exhaustion, collapsing trading volumes, and extremely negative soyboy sentiment. These are all conditions that have historically developed as selling pressure begins to run its course.

Bitcoin whales have also reportedly scooped up about 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

• Bitcoin ETFs have seen $8.475B in net outflows since May 6th (CoinTelegraph)

• Metaplanet recently bought 2,823 Bitcoin worth $170,000,000 (WatcherGuru)

• Total crypto card deposits have officially crossed above $10 billion for the first time in history (Kobeissi Letter)

• Binance has failed to obtain a license to operate in the EU (WSJ/Unusual Whales).

I think $65,000 could come sooner than most expect.

I added some AAVE and Bitcoin DCAs this week.

Fresh Stock Picks & Names I am Cutting

At this point I think it is wise to try to find some good plays beyond the AI madness, although chips are now mooning in premarket.

Doesn’t mean we ignore it, but it could be good to supplement the hype and chaos with some other ideas.

Additionally I think we can afford to reduce exposure to some laggards or under-performers to free up cash for these new plays.

One theme I am beginning to pay attention to again that has done well in the past seems to be gaining momentum again and there are a few ways to play it.

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Buckle up patriots.

In December of last year I dropped You’re Not Imagining It, Something Is Very Wrong in which I discussed growing political violence in the US and the rapid spread of extremist ideology.

It was one of our highest performing posts from an engagement standpoint because people were starting to take these threats seriously in the wake of the attacks on National Guard members in DC, resistance to ICE, and alarming videos calling for resistance from the Democrat party.

Today, we’re going to examine another piece of that puzzle.

The rapid resurgence of socialism in America.

This isn’t the socialism your grandparents associated with the Soviet Union or the Cold War (at least yet).

For Millennials and Gen Z, "socialism" isn't associated with the Soviet Union. It's more likely associated with healthcare in Scandinavia, minority rights, or dissatisfaction with housing costs in Brooklyn New York.

Whether that association is accurate or incomplete, it's politically important.

This time around housing, culture, and identity are becoming major catalysts and I can’t really say I am surprised. Sky high home prices, rent, student debt, and stagnant affordability make more interventionist and radical policies attractive to younger voters or people dependent on the status quo (migrants). Mamdani just seized his opportunity in New York City with the Rent Guidelines Board approving freezing rents in both one and two year leases by a 7-1 vote.

Trump responded last week by sounding the alarm on this rise of communism in which he called it the greatest threat to the U.S. “since World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, or 9/11.”

And for all his shortcomings, on this he is correct. In 1971 Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck, a socialist democrat, said famously that rent control was:

“The most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city — except for bombing”

The issue for us is that this new push for communism is not taking place in a vacuum. It is taking place as:

• Extremist fringes on both sides of the political aisle are becoming bolder

• Western countries are suffering from mass migration

• Our institutions are captured by foreigners

• Political activists are firing up for midterms and the next election

• The Supreme Court debates birthright citizenship

People want this to be isolated. People think this will all go away. They really want that to be true.

It won’t. I promise you.

It has the capacity to greatly impact you, your job, your future, your family, your kids, and your well being. It is a dark future if we do not act.

You can write me off or ignore this post today, that’s fine, but it doesn’t change what’s coming.

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I sleep well at night knowing I have done everything in my power to educate as many people as possible on these threats and patterns as soon as they’ve emerged.

The bottom line is we have reached critical mass now.

The enemy is here among you and their strength is growing by the day.

They are much bolder, unrestrained by the same virtue and decency that paralyzes you from doing anything about it, and they are willing to go to insane ends to accomplish their goals, which among other things, include seizing power, taking property/assets/wealth, and killing in the name of their ideology.

Worse, your politicians have enabled them to steal from you. It is the grandest of humiliation rituals in which you are quite literally funding your own demise.

As someone with a family, I take these warning signs very seriously. It does not bring me excitement or pleasure to speak to you today about them. But this is a critical topic that requires attention. Regardless of how financial markets have performed since Covid, this threat has continued to grow right in front of us.

Today we are going to cover:

• The rapid rise of support for socialism/communism in the United States

• The key and dangerous role mass immigration plays in accelerating it

• The societal characteristics and dynamics accelerating all of this

• Where this is likely all heading and what it means for the West

If you think this story is about one mayor in one city, you’re missing the bigger picture.

To understand what’s happening today, we need to go back nearly 180 years, to a German philosopher whose ideas would eventually shape some of the deadliest political experiments in human history.

Because what’s happening in America today isn’t entirely new.

We’ve seen parts of this story before.

If we continue down this path, New York won’t be the exception.

It will be the blueprint. You will watch your job, your neighborhood, your town, your city, and the country begin to change more quickly.

And by the time most Americans realize what’s happening, the political, demographic, and institutional changes will already be too deeply embedded to reverse without enormous conflict.

We’re close.

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Hope everyone had a great week.

Today we have a good blend of market centric updates, global news, and a final section on some of the sleeper picks in crypto and equities I am purchasing this week.

You can rest assured we have a schizo rant on the horizon as well, given the entire globe seems to be descending into a glorious ideological batt…

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As most of you know I put out quite a few posts over the years on the search for happiness, how to get a job, how to date and marry, how to invest, build a business, network, and navigate an increasingly chaotic world.

Everyone always wants the best stock or crypto picks, the inside track on the next hot industry, the best places to travel, the hottest product to buy, how to spend their time, or the best ways to spend their time. People want to succeed, get rich, and prosper throughout their lives.

They focus on all kinds of little things, but the reality is that your future isn’t determined by hundreds of equally important choices.

It’s determined by a surprisingly small number of decisions that compound for decades. The big ones. And they hold some heavy weight that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

The truth is a small amount of people ever really become conscious of this and act on it.

The majority of people simply coast through life, growing embittered and angry as to why they aren’t seeing meaningful change or the results or outcomes that they tell themselves they want.

The scary part is that the consequences of these decisions rarely appear overnight. They accumulate quietly, almost invisibly, until one day you look around and realize you’re living a life you never intentionally chose. That’s a pretty bleak outcome and one that I really wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy.

That is how people wake up in their late thirties or forties wondering where the time went. They stayed in a corporate role or job they hated because changing careers felt uncomfortable. They never invested because they always assumed there would be a better time to start or more time to do it.

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They surrounded themselves with people who had no ambition and slowly adopted the same habits over time.

They married someone they weren’t truly compatible with or never made the effort to build meaningful relationships in the first place. They spent years consuming instead of creating, distracting themselves at every possible moment instead of developing themselves for the long haul.

Very few people consciously decide that they want an average life.

Instead, they simply allow inertia to make their decisions for them and end up a husk of a person at 60.

MAX PAIN. And something I am starting to see more and more later on in my life.

But the good news is your future can really boil down to several key decisions you make (or don’t make) and today we are going to walk through them step by step.

The major levers that decide if you get what you want out of life.

The decisions that determine if you are able to ascend and prosper, or if you wallow in your bad habits and inaction, wondering for years if you made the right moves.

In no particular order, with maybe the exception of #1 here, let’s get into the 10 decisions that can determine what your future ends up looking like.

Let’s get it.

1. Whether You Ever Learn to Sell

At 33 years of age there are few blanket statements I would make about success that I absolutely live by, but learning to sell is one of them.

The person who can create value will make a decent living. The person who can create value and then communicate it will usually outperform them. The person who can’t do either is in for a rough couple decades.

Learning to sell quite literally changed my life.

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One of the things I pride myself on in relation to Arb Letter is covering major stories or trends before they hit the mainstream news cycle.

These are stories and themes that I feel actually matter in our world, that for whatever reason, most people ignore, miss, or remain uninterested in.

By now if you have read Arb Letter for a while or follow…

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Looks like the vibes might have shifted in our favor over the weekend. As President Trump rolls out a wild display of American aura at the White House with motocross flips and UFC knockouts, markets loved the peace deal announced this weekend.

On Sunday Trump announced a preliminary U.S. peace deal with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted almost instantly with oil dumping and major indices ripping Monday morning. Bitcoin reclaimed $66,000, Ethereum climbed over $1,800 and several alt coins mooned over 10%.

It would appear at least for the moment - WE ARE BACK with crazy happenings and predictions popping up left and right:

Elon Musk is now a trillionaire.

The Knicks are NBA champs.

Some random country named Cape Verde held Spain to a draw in the World Cup, dropping Spain’s odds of winning to 15%.

UFC Fighter Josh Hokit went psycho mode and said “Michelle Obama is a man” live on TV.

The S&P 500 has logged 23 all time highs in 2026.

Goldman Sachs raised its year end S&P 500 target to 8,000.

Defense, AI, robotics, energy, nuclear, and space are all seeing massive capital flows at the same time.

Major news headlines and drama aside, what is becoming harder to ignore is the sheer number of turbo bullish developments occurring simultaneously. AI spending continues to accelerate. Data centers are being built at a pace that would have sounded ridiculous just a few years ago.

Defense budgets are expanding around the world at record pace. Nuclear power is making a sneaky little comeback. Space is becoming investable to the masses. Robotics are leaving the lab and entering the workforce.

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I think the argument that we are closer to a generational god pump than a crippling recession is becoming stronger by the day, not because every risk has disappeared, but because the scale of innovation, capital investment, and technological progress underway is becoming impossible to ignore.

Think about it brother.

Entire industries are being rebuilt in real time. Trillions of dollars are being deployed into infrastructure, energy, compute, automation, and defense. Markets may continue to experience volatility along the way, but it just seems like the long term direction of travel remains remarkably clear. We all know they are just going to keep printing and printing.

At some point, investors have to stop focusing on what can go wrong and start focusing on what is actually being built and what is ripping in front of their faces.

Today we’re going to review this latest surge in markets and the stocks picks and crypto highlights worth paying attention to this week. You can feel a major trend shift cooking under the surface that I don’t think most people are ready for.

There are some excellent opportunities to capitalize on and some signs that sentiment might be changing (especially in crypto land). Once again, our attempt is to front run the normie hordes and get you guys positioned before everyone is 100% “certain” that things have changed.

By then, gains will be had already and you might end up like this guy.

Dark stuff.

It’s time for you to lock in king. A few good plays can change your life.

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As a follow up today to our post on Tuesday (which I apologize, did go out a bit late), I wanted to not only get everyone caught up on the state of financial markets, but air out some of the biggest issues on earth right now including:

• The reversal and dump in global markets

• The verdict in the Austin Metcalf murder

• The riots and unrest in …

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An interesting moment I had online this past weekend gave me a glimpse into where people’s heads really are these days. Nowadays you never really know what is going to go turbo viral online. After 9 years in media I can generally get a sense of what might do super well, but sometimes, especially on platforms like X, it can be an enigma.

This post I made below did just that on June 6th 2026.

As of today it sits at 3,800,000 views, 35,000 likes, and 5,000 retweets. Likely my most engaged “tweet” I have ever made. If you’re unaware the clip is from the Brecourt Manor Assault by Lt. Dick Winters of the 101st Airborne in Normandy on June 6th 2026 from the HBO miniseries Band of Brothers. Winters and a handful of airborne and other troops quickly took out German artillery hammering the men on the beaches.

It was a textbook assault and is taught still to this day at West Point Military Academy.

You can see my caption below (which I crafted in about 5 seconds) to not only post a quick ode to June 6th (D-Day) but to also highlight the vast differences between life today and in 1944. In this case yes, I used the laughably familiar millennial and Gen Z meme of having high anxiety over a life defined by a corporate job.

This clip generated an ENORMOUS amount of discussion on:

• War

• Society

• The ruling elite (futility of war)

• Modern day vs. boomer/older generation lifestyles

• WWII conspiracies (which I do love)

I quite enjoyed seeing all of the different takes. Some people were pissed, some agreed with some my sentiment, and others had unique interpretations. One thing was striking to me though. There was a large group of commenters posting that they’d prefer THIS over a corporate or email job.

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And while there may have been some joking/jest involved, I actually think there’s some truth and merit to that idea (as crazy as it might seem). Do I think people would prefer to get shot to death in a muddy trench over sitting through Microsoft Teams meetings? No.

Do I think people, and especially young men, lack a mission or uniting factor these days? Absolutely I do.

We’ve touched on this idea before in Modern Man’s Guide to Happiness.

What struck me wasn’t that people were romanticizing war. I don’t think that’s what most were doing at all (and it definitely wasn’t what I was doing contrary to what the trolls thought).

What they were reacting to was the purpose.

In 1944, or in this particular example LT. Winters and his men knew exactly who they were, exactly what their objective was, and exactly what was expected of them. Their lives were dangerous, uncomfortable, and often brutally short.

But they were not ambiguous.

And that makes your existence fairly simple.

Compare that to the modern experience. Millions of people wake up, answer emails, sit in useless meetings, commute hours, update spreadsheets, scroll social media, consume content, eat slop, and repeat the process day after day.

They are materially richer than any generation in human history, yet many seem profoundly dissatisfied and depressed.

Comfort and technology have advanced us, but they have also killed the part of us that carried any sort of spark. We are shielded from the raw nature of the world, we communicate digitally, and dodge confrontation at the first sign. Life can be entirely ambiguous.

Don’t say this, don’t do that, your country and community are worse off but we can’t exactly see or say who or what is responsible for it.

It’s not because life is necessarily harder now than it was in 1944.

It’s because I think human beings (especially men) have a deep psychological need for meaning, challenge, camaraderie, and a clear shared struggle. Throughout most of history those things were unavoidable.

Today they often have to be actively sought out.

And not everyone chooses to do that, resulting in perpetual frustration and unfulfillment.

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Welcome to the 200 new subscribers that joined us after our post examining the impact of mass immigration on the West. The post was timely considering ramping escalation in the UK after the death Henry Nowak and new migrant riots in central Brussels today.

Another man was shot with a crossbow in the UK at the University of Surrey today. So things are looking up!

I appreciate the feedback some of you guys have shared on Substack as well, always good to hear that I have managed to differentiate this publication from other options out there. That was always the goal. I urge you to share these posts with like minded people so we can continue to grow the community internationally. We are now read in nearly every state and country on earth.

Today we’re going to talk about the elephant in the room for global markets that most of us care about.

Crypto.

The last several days have been ugly for digital assets. Bitcoin has broken below key support levels and briefly traded into the low to mid $60,000s, while Ethereum has fallen back toward and below the $2,000 level.

Many of the higher beta altcoins have been hit even harder, with speculative names getting absolutely smoked as traders rush for the exits.

Though there are a few exceptions we will cover today.

As always in crypto, price declines have been amplified by excessive leverage and the arrival of institutions. More than $1.5 billion worth of positions have been liquidated across the market in roughly 24 hours, impacting over 200,000 traders.

Crypto markets have officially erased over $2 trillion in market cap since the record high seen in October 2025 (Kobeissi Letter).

Bitcoin and Ethereum alone accounted for well over $1 billion of the damage as forced selling cascaded through the system.

While the primary culprit of this dump eludes many, the suspected catalysts are familiar to most of us who have been around for a bit.

Persistent ETF outflows, renewed geopolitical tensions, macro uncertainty, and a broader risk off environment that has pushed capital toward cash, bonds, gold, and select AI equities. When fear enters the market, crypto is still the asset class that tends to get sold first and hardest, even if this has been going on for some time now.

Perhaps most importantly, sentiment has completely flipped.

I would describe it as horrific lol.

Just a few months ago investors were talking about institutional adoption, strategic reserves, and higher six figure Bitcoin targets. Today the conversation has shifted to liquidations, technical support levels, and whether a deeper correction is coming for our bags.

Still Polymarket shows SOME hope on the horizon with a 7% chance we still hit 150K by end of year. Can someone say “inject me with hopium?”.

Today we are going to cover:

• What is going on underneath the surface

• Timelines for a potential recovery

• Strategies for surviving these down periods

• Bright spots in the chaos you need to pay attention to

This year marks my 8th year in crypto. While I am far from an expert I have seen quite a bit in my time and we have managed to get this publication to the top of the charts in the crypto section on Substack.

This is no small feat considering how many people and organizations write about crypto and publish their research online. Tens of thousands of you have continued to ride with us through uptrends and downtrends. We will prevail this time as well.

Crypto is not over. Bitcoin has not failed.

But, the current market is chewing people up alive and we can talk about some of the best ways for smartly navigating it so you can make it the other side.

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What is going on underneath the surface

Shit looks dark for sure, Cardano’s founder basically said peace out, the selling isn’t stopping, and we have to watch equities chug higher and higher while our internet magic coins force us to eat McDonalds or 711 meat sticks for dinner.

According to data from CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency market currently sits at roughly $2.3 trillion in total value, down about 4% over the last 24 hours and roughly one-third below levels seen a year ago.

Pretty insane steady drop now for months.

Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the space (though dominance is shifting) with a market capitalization of approximately $1.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 56% of the entire crypto market.

Meanwhile, we have stablecoins that have grown into a massive asset class of their own, with a combined valuation of around $315 billion, representing close to 14% of all cryptocurrency market value and providing much of the liquidity that keeps the ecosystem functioning.

We started to go over some of the reasons for the constant selling last week but as a refresher:

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Hopefully you scanned our stock picks over the last few weeks to stave off some of the crypto linked depression (things will get better but we’ve got to ride it out for now). We talked about for a few weeks and she is on an absolute tear this morning…..

Today we’re going to talk about what is I think is likely the single largest issue facing the Western world today.

Mass immigration and the escalation of disruption inside Western countries.

Depending on the circles you run in or the mediums you follow online, you either have a sober grasp on this threat or you’re entirely oblivious to it. You think it is exaggeration or hyperbole.

Worse you fall into the classic trap of “oh that’s offensive or racist” to discuss. You genuinely see a problem with talking about the events and facts we will cover today.

But the world is waking up. And how could it not be?

• The United States refused to participate in the UN’s review of the Global Compact on Migration stating “UN agencies systematically facilitated mass migration into America and Europe, even as citizens of these nations called for restrictions on migration. Now the Global Compact’s latest report urges nations to expand migration pathways and pursue “regularization” of migrants”

• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that “9 of every 10 new American jobs since pre-COVID went to someone born outside the country. Foreign-born employment is growing 42x faster than native-born since 2019” (LayoffHedge)

• Conservative Dutch political commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek initiated gathering signatures for the ‘Save Europe Act’

• AusIntegrity and Australian news sources reported that a new immigrant is added to Australia every 75 seconds. In the last 25 years alone, Australia has added about 10 million, with plans to hit 30 million before 2030

• The New York Post and others reported last week non-whites are set to become the majority for the first time in the US by 2050, a situation mirrored in up to 16 states, including New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, according to new census data. They added: In 1980, the US was 80% white, but that figure is expected to drop to 47% by 2050 and 44% by 2060.

This global trend is undeniable.

Everywhere you look these days there is evidence of the great push to spread globalism and multicultural societies at all costs. It was fun for awhile for idealists and the establishment left got away with it for years, but now in 2026?

Well people are beginning to realize the dream they were sold is simply not realistic, safe, or conducive to functioning nations.

Worse, they are realizing the people being brought into their countries despise them and have zero plans to make any effort to assimilate or adopt the culture of the nations they happily entered.

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Importing The Third World

In his controversial classic Camp of the Saints, author Jean Raspail quite literally predicted the world we now find ourselves in, particularly if you live in a Western country.

The novel envisioned a future shaped by mass migration, political paralysis, elite moral posturing, institutional hesitation, declining social cohesion, and a widening gulf between official narratives and the lived reality experienced by ordinary citizens.

While critics and soys have long condemned the book as inflammatory or extreme, supporters argue that many of its themes now resemble headlines rather than fiction.

Perhaps you’ve seen the quote below on X or other platforms. It was quite fitting when a Moroccan man lit a cigarette and squatted on the Tomb of The Unknown Soldier, or when an Algerian recently climbed on top of the Joan of Arc statue in Paris and vandalized it.

Whether viewed as prophetic warning, political allegory, or controversial piece the book’s relevance has only grown as Western societies and people now wrestle with questions of sovereignty, assimilation, security, and the future character of their nations.

This is serious, heavy stuff to discuss.

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