Welcome to all the new subs that came onboard last week, hope you guys enjoyed the Assets That Will Separate Winners From Everyone Else post. Most of our plays there pumped pretty hard last week, so make sure to give it a read if you missed it.

Saturday night, a likely third assassination attempt against President Trump was foiled at the White House Correspondents’ dinner. Cole Allen, a 31 year old former CalTech student was charged.

Video showed him running through a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton. He had multiple weapons on him (shotgun, handgun, and knives) and fired before being taken down by security and apprehended.

He told investigators (and his manifesto stated) he was specifically targeting Trump administration officials.

Before we start today - major headlines from the weekend and Monday:

• The S&P500 closed at a new all time high yesterday

• Billionaire Ken Griffin and New York supreme leader Mayor Zohran Mamdani are beefing after Mamdani used his 24,000-square-foot Manhattan penthouse as the setting for a “tax-the-rich” video. This is causing Griffin to hint that he may reconsider his firm’s investment footprint in the city

• OpenAI has reportedly fallen short of its internal targets for user growth and revenue, raising concerns about whether its heavy spending on data centers is sustainable. Leadership, including CFO Sarah Friar, is focused on tightening costs as the company balances ambitious expansion plans with financial discipline ahead of a potential IPO

• has signed a classified AI deal with the Pentagon

Something Dark is Happening

So what are we talking about this morning?

If you live elsewhere in the world or somehow missed it in the US, let me bring you up to speed.

The FBI is reviewing cases of at least 13 scientists who have died or disappeared since 2022, most of whom had connections to nuclear, space, and UFO/alien-related information.

This comes at the same time as:

• Mass drone/UFO/UAP sightings in US cities and around the world

• The Trump administration announcing they will begin declassifying UFO and potential alien life records

• A massive jump in drone and defense technology

Last week I ran a poll on if folks would be interested in a run down on the bizarre string of disappearances and deaths of UFO adjacent scientists in the US over the past 2 years.

You guys overwhelmingly asked for it, so that’s what we are going to get into today.

Subscribe now

Aliens, UFOs, extraterrestrial life, and deep government shadow groups are topics most normies acknowledge for half a moment before going back to their day. However, in the last several years, if you’ve been paying attention, it is obvious SOMETHING is going on.

It is looking more and more as if 2026 might hold some new revelations for us in one of the most hallowed conspiracy corners of all history.

Polymarket even has the odds that the US confirms the existence of aliens at 20% before the end of 2026. Kind of high no?

Let’s spend some time trying to figure out what the hell is going on.

UFO Researchers & Government Officials Disappearing & Dying

So instead of you giving you some wordy and lengthy mumbo jumbo post on all of this, let’s get super specific.

Roughly a dozen scientists across aerospace, defense, and nuclear fields have died or disappeared in recent years, drawing attention due to the clustering of cases and leading some to believe there is something deeper going on.

We’re not going to rehash an entire introduction into UFO/defense tech history today, if you want that I suggest listening to the Risk On episode I did on this topic last year. The concepts we will cover today expand on basic UFO history, government initiatives, and developments in the space, so if you are reading along and suddenly go “I am lost” go give it a listen.

To give you some idea of what we are talking about here, the following individuals have “died” or gone missing in the past several years.

Though sources and reporting vary, it is thought right now that approximately 13 UFO/advanced technology scientists and government officials have either died, committed suicide, or gone missing in the past several years, with multiple instances in 2026. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is said to be investigating any connections currently.

Take a minute to read through this whole list. It is pretty shocking. You simply cannot make this string of events up if you tried.

Read more

One of those weeks where there’s just too many stories to cover at once. We have the 12th scientist/UFO researcher to go missing dead in a reported suicide (insert Dr Evil “Righttttt” meme). A major breaking story about fraud within the Southern Poverty Law Center, who was, wait for it, sending millions to far right groups to help finance demonstrations and activity. Bitcoin seems like it has zero intention of ever leaving the high 70’s range.

We have continued tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and pending peace talks between Iran and the US and we have markets that look coiled chugging higher and higher despite all of this chaos.

If you missed our guide that dropped on Tuesday morning, make sure you give it a look before end of week.

We covered 60+ of my top picks in equities, crypto, and commodities. Many of the names like and have been on solid rips the last two weeks.

Subscribe now

Markets

Even with the non stop chop from the Iran conflict and the next batch of tweets or headlines from Iranian leadership and the Trump administration, markets have climbed higher.

The Nasdaq just closed at fresh all-time highs, up roughly 1.5–2% yesterday, driven once again by strength in tech and semis. Semis have been on a godly run with breaching the $300 level this week.

What stands out to me is the backdrop this is happening in. Oil remains elevated and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz haven’t fully cooled. Officials are still saying it will take 6 months to de-mine the strait (remove seaborne mines).

Polymarket odds currently sit at about 36% that a US x Iran diplomatic meeting takes place by April 29th.

This comes as mixed messages come out of Iran on whether or not they are willing to engage in peace negotiations WITHOUT the inclusion of a partial lift on sanctions.

• Lufthansa is set to cut 20,000 European flights this summer to save on jet fuel

• Six senior Coinbase marketing executives, including its former CMO, have joined OpenAI over the past 18 months (CoinTelegraph)

• Tesla beat earnings and ended up soaring +4% after-hours

• Lyft is set to purchase London ridesharing app Gett

• Raising a child to age 18 now costs more than $303,000, an increase of 27.8% since 2023 (FOX/Unusual Whales)

• The Trump administration is reportedly nearing a rescue deal for Spirit Airlines that would loan the discount carrier as much as $500 million (WSJ)

Good news for defense kings.

The Pentagon is floating a massive $1.5 trillion defense budget, signaling one of the most aggressive military spending ramps in modern history.

It’s a sharp jump from current levels and points to a clear shift toward a more hardened and conflict ready posture in the coming years.

The bulk of the funding is aimed at three areas.

First, next-generation military systems, including advanced aircraft, naval expansion, and a layered missile defense shield designed to counter evolving threats.

Second, a heavy push into drones, autonomous systems, and AI, reflecting how modern conflicts are being fought and where the battlefield is headed. It appears $75B is set aside JUST for drone tech. Imagine that….

Share ARB Letter

Third, a major rebuild of munitions and weapons stockpiles, which have been depleted after years of global tensions and proxy conflicts.

Here is your short list of drone plays that benefit if this goes through:

The U.S. is doubling down on hard power, industrial capacity, and technologically driven warfare as the foundation of the next decade.

Palantir announced this week that the company is partnering with the US Department of Agriculture to modernize services for American farmers:

"Protecting America’s farmland is protecting America itself, and this work gives USDA the visibility and speed needed to safeguard our food supply,” said USDA Chief Information Officer Sam Berry. “Our farmers sustain this nation, and modern tools help us support them with greater precision. I look forward to working with Palantir as we continue serving the American farming community, which serves all of us every single day.”

The name is up almost 6% this week.

Big year for defense tech.

Crypto

My gut tells me crypto is on the cusp of surprising us. Bitcoin has held a solid level for a while now and most recently ripped up to the $79,400 range amid mixed headlines coming out of Iran.

US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo raised some eyebrows when he recently told Congress the military is currently running a Bitcoin node for network security tests and called Bitcoin a tool for American power projection.

Bitcoin now solidifying some position in defense circles.

• Blockchain Capital seeks $700 million for two new funds (The Block/Bloomberg)

• A coalition of 100+ crypto firms including Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken,

  and a16z are urging the Senate Banking Committee to advance the CLARITY Act (CoinDesk)

• Morgan Stanley bought $11,300,000 worth of Bitcoin yesterday in MSBT

• Sweden’s H100 Group AB signed a binding deal to raise its Bitcoin holdings to ~3,500 from about 1,000 (CoinTelegraph)

• Bridgetower adopted Chainlink to tokenize $11B+ in securities from the DOM X Arizona Copper-Gold Project (Chainlink)

Chainlink continues to gain momentum throughout this bear period. Arcamids on X highlighted the activity from major institutions via the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF.

Check out the names on the left side (hopefully you can see them. Citadel, Royal Bank of Canada, Jane Street, and others. Arcamids pointed out the two highlighted shifts below:

Accurate Wealth Management ($1.7B AUM): +40,009 shares (160% increase)

McElhenny Sheffield ($663M AUM): +30 shares

Subscribe now

This product is essentially a wrapper for Chainlink, meaning any meaningful inflows translate into direct demand for LINK itself. Unlike broad crypto funds, this is a targeted allocation into a single piece of infrastructure, not just general market exposure.

I know we all tend to lose our day to day interest in crypto (and alt coins) when we’re not ripping to new highs but Chainlink sits at the center of a much bigger narrative: connecting real-world data, financial systems, and blockchains.

It’s not competing as a currency or even just a smart contract platform, it’s positioning itself as the plumbing layer between traditional finance and on-chain markets which is why I have been talking about it for 5 years.

So if institutions are stepping in here, they’re not just chasing price action. They’re hungry for fat gains and positioning around:

• Tokenization of real-world assets

• On-chain settlement rails

• The continued integration of banks, funds, and data into blockchain systems

In other words young kings, they’re betting on the infrastructure behind the next financial system, not just the assets that sit on top of it. Own the plumbing and toll booths.

Sounds pretty bullish.

Global News - SPLC Fraud Bust

In some insane (but not necessarily surprising news) The US Department of Justice announced an indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center ("SPLC"). Their indictment alleged that the SPLC secretly funneled more than $3 Million in funds to members of white supremacist and extremist groups including:

-Ku Klux Klan
-American Nazi Party
-Aryan Nation
-United Klans of America
-Unite the Right

Why?

Well to stage fake events to justify being around.

According to prosecutors, the organization misled donors, raising money to fight extremism while financially supporting individuals inside those same networks.

If true, this flips the entire model and what we’ve been told for years on its head.

It casts significant doubts on Charlottesville and other events in which the media had a field day pointing to instances of supposed “white supremacist aggression”.

Turns out these events were likely funded by the same organization condemning and “fighting” them lol.

Refer a friend

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said "The SPLC is manufacturing racism to justify its existence. Using donor money to allegedly profit off Klansmen cannot go unchecked."

The SPLC has always been full of true extremists views.

In this video from years ago an SPLC employee (Mark Potok) is seen speaking with an interviewer and we get a glimpse of his wall in his office.

On it, you can see he has a calendar/tracker of sorts following the decline in White populations in Europe.

Pretty absurd shit.

Other headlines:

• UFO researcher David Wilcock was found dead at the age of 53 in Boulder County, Colorado, authorities confirmed.​ This marks the latest in a string of deaths involving individuals connected to the UFO disclosure and research community. Wilcock said on stream shortly before his death "People are disappearing. Scientists are going missing. The President himself is looking into this. It's a little bit scary." Gets weirder though, his biographer died 48 hours before him. We may have to expand on this in a schizo rant. Comment “Thiccc Alien Cheeks” in the comments if you want that

  Share ARB Letter

  

• The US Department of War announced on X this morning: Overnight, U.S. forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean within the INDOPACOM area of responsibility

• The US Senate has voted to advance $70 billion funding plan for ICE and Border Patrol agencies (InsiderPaper)

• Germany is committing to building Europe’s strongest conventional military by 2039, expanding forces to 460,000 troops to bolster deterrence against Russia (SolidIntel)

• Trump's acting attorney general has reclassified state-licensed medical marijuana as a less-dangerous drug in a major shift (AP/NewsWire)

• President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot & kill” any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz this morning (InsiderWire)

Have a great rest of the week guys.

We will be back on our regular schedule next week unless something truly bonkers happens over the weekend, in which case we will be right back at it.

Don’t forget to check out the Arbitrage Andy store if you want some new T Shirts for Spring and Summer.

Godspeed

Andy

Leave a comment

If you’re a time tested subscriber of Arb Letter, welcome back.

If you’re new here, I am glad you found this guide today as it is going to be an excellent summarization of the themes and names I am betting on in the coming decade.

If you take a moment to look at the state of the world since Covid, it’s apparent we’ve entered a new realm entirely in financial markets. Signs are everywhere.

The Palantir thread we covered yesterday.

The War in Iran and expansion of US military prowess around the globe.

The AI arms race.

The global battle between socialism and nationalism.

Money printing at an unprecedented scale.

Resource hoarding and shortages.

Society becoming even more digital ad online than we thought was possible.

All of these highlight the fast changing world we live in.

Today we’re compiling all stock, crypto, ETF, and asset picks/recommendations into one post.

After sheer bangers you guys printed on like
Bitcoin, and others, I figured it would be most valuable to lay my current plays out in the same post. Longtime readers will be the first to tell you that just one of these plays pays for years of what it costs to join this community for the year.

I never understood why people haggle and whine about $8 when they see folks knocking it out of the park with some of the plays we lay out here.

Subscribe now

There’s no secret, I just remove all the fluff. It’s not normie slop. It just works.

All the noise and BS that still litters mainstream media, publications, and influencer commentary gets cut out.

I explain and lay things out the way they are. Not the way people want them to be or the way that benefits other individuals and organizations.

I know nothing for sure (nobody does), but there are plenty of signs on what is probably going to separate modern serfs from asset owners who have true freedom down the line.

I don’t have to reiterate the stakes for you guys:

• Homes are unaffordable

• The cost of living is soaring

• AI is culling jobs left and right

• College grads are jobless for longer periods

• Markets are defying all logic while inflation remains stubborn

• Your money just doesn’t go as far

You simply HAVE to get smarter to get ahead (or just maintain a certain standard of living).

Aside from the typical career hedges and personal development concepts we cover here regularly, owning the right companies and assets is your ticket to ensuring you can secure your future in this clusterf*ck world we find ourselves in.

Trump is set to appear on CNBC this morning at 8:30am ET which is sure to dictate which way markets turn today (will be get a “good time to buy” comment?) and that’s against what I personally think is an increasingly bullish backdrop.

Markets are tiring of the Iran nonsense despite US Vice President JD Vance traveling to Pakistan for new peace talks, we have retail is frothing at the mouth to ape into markets, and the AI supercycle isn’t losing any momentum.

Regardless of short term pullbacks and more TACO chaos, you can tell that we might be on the verge of full blown mania in risk assets. That liftoff or squeeze is not something you want to (or can afford to) miss. Over the last three weeks the markets are telling us they are begging to explode higher.

Our list and guide today is comprised of:

• 60+ tickers, companies, and assets I consider must owns

• Quick run downs on why these are worth holding

• ETFs for broader exposure if you don’t want to bet on one horse

• The 5 Sectors/Spaces that will be table stakes in the next decade

TLDR version is this guide is packed with the absolute bangers. The GOATED names you should hold at all costs if you want to print. Everything in this list is a bet on one thing.

The world is becoming more unstable, more digital, and more resource constrained at the same time. Adjust accordingly brother.

Let’s get started.

Technology & AI (Artificial Intelligence)

The artificial intelligence arms race has been one of the most profound in markets in decades. It has become the defining battleground of this cycle, not just in tech but across geopolitics, defense, and capital markets.

What started as a software story has quickly evolved into an infrastructure race with chips, data centers, energy, and distribution. Every major player, from Big Tech to governments, are now competing for dominance because the winners will not just generate returns, they will control the rails of the next global economy.

It’s full blown mayhem.

Amazon is committing tens of billions into AI partnerships and cloud infrastructure, with total spend expected to reach well into the hundreds of billions over time. At the same time, leading AI labs are locking in enormous amounts of compute capacity, requiring energy on the scale of entire power grids just to train and operate models.

On the hardware side, the race is expanding beyond just NVIDIA (which you should already hold ideally). Companies are now signing long term deals to develop custom AI chips, signaling that control over silicon is becoming just as important if not more important as software.

The majority of you who have already generated outsized returns over the past 10 years likely hold some of these, but I think with recent software routs and AI bubble panic, there’s an opportunity to top off the war chest with some classic names and new horses.

Amazon

• Just announced they will invest up to another $25 billion in Anthropic as a part of an AI infrastructure deal. Additionally, Bezos announced that he is set to close a $10 billion funding round for his new AI startup code-named “Project Prometheus”. Sounds ominous and profitable…..

Microsoft $MSFT

• One of our solid plays since the last market dip, Microsoft is deeply embedded across enterprise software and AI. Their partnership with OpenAI and integration of copilots across Office, Azure, and Windows makes them one of the clearest long-term winners in tech and AI. Do not fade the classics.

Read more

Good morning lords. Hope everyone had a solid weekend.

It’s Monday, the weather is drastically improving. I am sure most of us would rather be somewhere else besides the office or online.

But there’s still developments to stay on top of, alpha to be found, and markets open in a little over an hour. So we have to lock in for our future grandchildren’s sake.

There are sales to close. Deals to manifest. Reps in the gym to crush. Situations to monitor and a new week to conquer.

Quick reminder the spring deal sled deal is live through midnight this evening on Jay Butler. 15% off the entire site. A bunch of you have already taken advantage to cop some new sleds for the warmer months.

Cop a Pair Here and get ready for the tropics, the Hamptons, or wherever you are going to frequent this spring and summer.

And remember, it’s always better to rock them veiny style (no socks). Women can sense your business aura and deal closing abilities when you walk up looking like you could simultaneously vacation in St Tropez AND close illicit weapons deals with a sketchy European Bank.

Let’s get into it today.

Subscribe now

Markets & Equities

After a bullish week last week across the board, we got yet another TACO reversal.

Various outlets and sources reported sometime this weekend that Iran has rejected taking part in the second round of talks with the United States, this came after a planned new series of negotiations with US VP JD Vance in Pakistan.

Futures did not like this news collapsing alongside crypto, which shed some of the gains it had accumulated late last week.

Then things go kinetic in the Arabian Sea.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) intercepted the Iranian vessel “Touska”

The DOW Rapid Response account (Department of War) announced on X:

After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room. Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.

So things continue to escalate. New headlines jerk markets around every hour.

We’ve seen this dance again and again.

Zerohedge is even reporting talks are now back on the table AGAIN as of 8:30am.

Even with the non stop fuckery, there’s some interesting signs continuing to emerge. Rate cut odds in 2026 are sneaking up with the upcoming transition to Trump’s Kevin Warsh.

On Polymarket odds sit at about 21% that Warsh ends up cutting at the first Fed meeting of 2026. That’s a non trivial number for sure. It is not consensus obviously (yet), but it is enough to show the market is starting to price in a policy pivot risk earlier than expected. It likely reflects growing sensitivity to slowing growth, tighter financial conditions, or something breaking under the surface.

If those odds start climbing, it’s a signal the market is shifting from “higher for longer” toward “something’s about to force the Fed’s hand.”

This morning we will look to see what markets make of the latest reversal in deal progress with Iran. I have a strong feeling we get more chop followed by green.

You can only FUD so many times with the same story.

Anyways, many of the picks we’ve highlighted in paid posts soared last week:

MSFT AVGO PLTR AMD QUIK AMZN to name a few.

Will the Nasdaq 100s 13-day winning streak come to an end today? If it does you will get yet another opportunity to scoop up some solid names (especially Mag7) before the inevitable reversal.

I added a position in last week, which invests in companies enabling the electrification of the economy (AI data centers). It is a long term position I will just continue to add to monthly. I haven’t had a chance to look at any names that might be flying under the radar in this space yet.

We will go much deeper on new picks tomorrow.

If you missed the Guide I posted on making money online in 2026, check it out HERE. Pair that with the post tomorrow and you will be well situated going into the summer.

Subscribe now

Market Headlines

• Singapore urged banks to “plug their cybersecurity holes” in preparation for Claude Mythos this past week (Polymarket)

• Peter Mill, the global head of commodities technology strategy and head of markets technology for EMEA at Macquarie, is joining Balyasny Asset Management as head of commodities technology (efinancialcareers)

• hit $150 after reports is working with them on custom AI silicon for inference

• RAVE cryptocurrency fell 98% to $0.5, erasing $6.7 billion from its market cap in two days (WatcherGuru). Crime season in full swing.

• Barchart noted this morning that the Shiller PE Ratio hit the 2nd highest level of all-time, only slightly behind the Dot Com Bubble. The Shiller PE Ratio measures

• Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are reportedly starting to look at prediction markets (Cointelegraph)

• JPMorgan said recently it sees little stock upside left in Europe this year (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)

• Digital asset investment products saw $1.4B in inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly total since January (Cointelegraph)

• Michael Saylor announced Strategy has acquired ANOTHER 34,164 BTC for ~$2.54 billion at ~$74,395 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 9.5% YTD 2026. The sheer conviction is wild to see

• USA Rare Earth Inc agreed to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a $2.8B deal

• Polymarket is talking to investors to raise $400 million in new funding at a $15 billion valuation The Information reported this morning (The Block)

Global News

Palantir dropped a pretty viral thread over the weekend in which they expand on some of the core concepts covered in Alex Karp’s Technological Republic. If you haven’t read it yet, highly suggest getting it.

The thread lays out a worldview often associated with Palantir leadership, basically a call for a “Technological Republic” where Silicon Valley, government, and national defense are tightly aligned.

The idea that Silicon Valley has a duty to the state
Tech elites didn’t rise in some sort of vacuum, they benefited from U.S. institutions and should actively contribute to national defense and security, especially through software and AI. Anduril’s Palmer Luckey talks about this concepts in various interviews.

Share ARB Letter

Hard power over soft power ( that is now powered by software)
Moral arguments alone don’t win conflicts anymore. The next era of global dominance will be driven by AI, software, and defense tech, not just classic diplomacy (which seems to be failing fantastically in the Middle East right now).

AI warfare is inevitable
The debate isn’t whether AI weapons are going to get built, it’s who builds them first and controls them. Our adversaries aren’t hesitating.

There are a few big cultural critiques of modern America. The thread criticizes:

• Consumer tech stagnation (“tyranny of apps”)

• Political over psychologizing

• Elites prioritizing comfort over responsibility

• Declining standards in governance and public service

Call for shared national responsibility
Ideas like universal national service and broader participation in defense reflect a push against a detached, all volunteer system. This is one of the more aggressive postures lol. Mandatory service.

Reindustrialization and a building mindset
There’s strong support for people like Elon Musk and for ambitious, large-scale building, especially where markets have failed ( things like defense, infrastructure, crime prevention).

A shift to a new deterrence era
We’re quickly moving from nuclear deterrence into AI/software-driven deterrence, which will define future geopolitics. We are bringing terminator type predicaments entirely on our own heads.

Subscribe now

Pro American but also self-aware
The U.S. is framed as uniquely powerful and opportunity-rich, but currently at risk of decadence, complacency, and internal decay. You will note these are also big themes in Neil Howe and Ray Dalio’s “Fourth Turning” “cycle” theories. Good times weak men etc.

These all seem pretty solid to me if I’m being honest and pair well with the changing nature of the world in 2026.

However, critics of this book and of this type of thinking highlight the risk of what they call “techno-fascism” or concentrated abuses of power which is essentially a world where a small group of engineers, contractors, and government actors control surveillance, defense systems, and decision-making infrastructure with limited oversight (you could make the argument that this is already happening).

If you can’t beat em (and you can beat PLTR FYI) you have to join em.

Bullish into the foreseeable future.

Global Headlines

• Two U.S. Army soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division were reportedly injured in a brown bear attack during land navigation training this weekend

• A french ship was damaged recently by warning shots in the Strait of Hormuz

• A major fire breaks out at Russia's Tuapse Oil Refinery following Ukrainian drone attack

• A bomb threat was reported on United Airlines flight 2408 Enroute to Washington D.C. from Denver (InsiderWire)

• Tick bites are sending Americans to the ER at highest rate in nearly a decade according to the CDC

In this insane video below shared by Artemis II Astronaut Reid Wiseman, you can see the Earth setting behind the Moon on the recent voyage (filmed on an Iphone).

Wiseman said on X:

Like watching sunset at the beach from the most foreign seat in the cosmos, I couldn’t resist a cell phone video of Earthset. I could barely see the Moon through the docking hatch window but the iPhone was the perfect size to catch the view…this is uncropped, uncut with 8x zoom which is quite comparable to the view of the human eye. Enjoy.

As some pointed out online, might be the wildest iphone video every recorded.

That’s it for this morning guys.

Because I have some longer travel coming up in the next 10 days or so I want to provide a larger guide for paid subs tomorrow morning. A complete comprehensive update on asset classes, stock picks, and my thoughts about how you need to be positioned for the rest of the 2026.

I will shoot to have that out on the earlier side tomorrow morning so you guys can get into it before markets open (think ~7:45am ET).

We will be on the Discord and on X the rest of today monitoring market open.

Godspeed.

Andy

Leave a comment

Follow Us on X for More Live Updates

Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord

Arbitrage Andy Shop (New Summer Drops are Live)

Monitor the Situation on Polymarket

Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.

My mood is substantially elevated on this fine day. It was 80 degrees yesterday, I just broke out the deal sled collection, and the markets are looking absurdly bullish (for now).

Congratulations on making it through your winter arc and into the spring abundance period where we are going to run up some stacks of fat bandos and make the haters cry.

Some quick house keeping before we dive in today. I am in the process of updating the Arbitrage Andy store and we have some new additions including the Strait of Hormuz Yacht Club T Shirt and a new Defense Contractor piece as well. You can check them out here.

We will likely do a Saturday morning post this weekend as many of you had indicated you’d like to see that when we ran a poll in March.

Subscribe now

Today we have to talk through the S&P 500 new ATH, Allbirds pivoting to becoming an AI company, crypto institutional news continuing to drop, and tech names that are running hard on this market leg higher.

Sentiment seems to be improving, which means more opportunity.

Let’s get it.

S&P Goes Psycho Mode to New All Time High

If you look at markets since the Covid bottom, we really are living through insane times.

Markets ripped higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 pushing toward fresh highs as dip buyers stepped in aggressively once again. The Nasdaq is on one of the most insane winning streaks since 2021.

The move was thick and broad (giggity), led by tech and momentum names as investors leaned back into the classic “buy everything” trade despite lingering uncertainty over Trump’s next move on Iran.

Panic sellers are down astronomically. Polymarket odds are rising now that the S&P ends the year between $7,000 and $7,500. Deutsche Bank had set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000 just months ago.

Most picks we highlighted from two weeks ago are now well into the money including AMZN, AVGO, PLTR, and AMD.

Paid subs are printing right now on our call with the stock up 10.5% in the last 5 days of trading. up massive too along with .

is leading the drone pump.

I maintain the story on this name is pretty tight despite it selling off a bit into the start of April. You get defense exposure, autonomous systems, new partnerships weekly, and it is positioned as a smaller, more agile version of the primes. That’s enough to attract serious momentum and attention online. The ONDS subsidiary Sentrycs, was picked for counter drone defense at the World Cup.

Today if I buy anything it will likely be some and some .

That being said, if you think crypto is about to pump likely not a bad time to also reexamine some cyclical crypto plays in traditional markets, things like etc.

Subscribe now

The Allbirds Psycho Run

Yesterday we saw a new story that seems like it came straight from the Gamestop era.

Allbirds, the shoe company, announced a pivot to AI. Yes I am serious. The stock was up 800% at one point yesterday.

The stock, which had been effectively dead after collapsing since its 2021 peak, suddenly exploded higher after the company revealed plans to rebrand as “NewBird AI” and raise capital to move into GPU infrastructure and AI compute.

This whole thing is adding fuel to the “AI bubble” fire given it is also quite similar to what took place during the dotcom bubble where narrative consistently outpaced fundamentals, and anything even loosely tied to the theme caught a bid. Back then it was companies slapping “.com” onto their name and doubling overnight.

Today, it’s legacy or struggling businesses invoking “AI transformation” and getting rewarded for the story alone.

Instead of making shitty techbro sneakers they’re pivoting to compete with major AI players! Instant value!

Allbirds of course isn’t an AI company yet, but it is a valuable lesson of where the crowd will flock when the market is aggressively chasing exposure to anything tied to the current theme (AI).

I will not be chasing this lol.

Market Headlines:

• Spirit Airlines is reportedly at risk of liquidation as rising fuel costs worsen its financial crisis (Polymarket) Shame!

• US oil exports hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day last week (WatcherGuru)

• Call option volume has surged to 47 million contracts per day, up 75% since the start of the month while put volume has fallen 15% to 32 million (Polymarket Money)

• Mark Zuckerberg of reportedly physically moved his desk to be closer to Meta’s AI team, and has been “coding all day long” (Polymarket)

• Tesla added about 8% this week on Elon updates regarding chip progress

Share ARB Letter

SEC Change

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly scrapping the Pattern Day Trader rule, eliminating the long standing $25,000 minimum to actively trade equities and replacing it with a more flexible intraday margin system.

On the surface, it’s a major win for accessibility. In reality, it likely injects even more volatility and degeneracy into the system.

Removing PDT opens the door for a wave of smaller, highly active traders now able to move in and out of positions freely.

That means we get faster flows, more crowding, and sharper intraday swings, essentially hardwiring the kind of behavior seen during the GameStop short squeeze into everyday market structure.

More participation doesn’t really mean more stability, in this cases it means more speed, more leverage, and more reflexivity.

Buckle up, if you thought things got crazy during Covid the future is going to make it look like child’s play. Many many young people believe hyper gambling in financial markets is one of the only ways to “make it” now and the truth is, they may not be entirely wrong about that.

Crypto

While the stock market continues to go bonkers, crypto looks like a silent little cobra just coiled up and hanging out in the shade.

Is it going to go parabolic soon? Or roll over again and send Bitcoin back to $60,000s hell?

An interesting data point that CoinDesk pointed out is that Bitcoin funding rates have dropped to their most negative levels since 2023, according to Glassnode.

Historically, periods of deeply negative funding have lined up with local bottoms, including March 2020, mid-2021, and the aftermath of the FTX collapse in 2022. You also have billionaire Tim Draper predicting a $250,000 bitcoin price in a recent series of comments he made on the state of crypto.

Short term I don’t care (though my gut tells me things are coiling right now). I am paying attention to who is building and what they are focused on during this time period.

Morgan Stanley is making it clear that tokenization is moving from concept to core infrastructure within its wealth business. There’s a reason I have been pushing our tokenization guides non stop for months (you can find them below)

The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity

The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity Part 2

On its latest earnings call, leadership pointed to a future where assets, funds, and credit products operate on blockchain rails rather than traditional account based systems.

The focus is on faster settlement, improved transparency, and the ability to move capital more efficiently across portfolios and counterparties. This is not being framed as an edgy crypto experiment anymore but as a structural upgrade to how financial assets are issued, tracked, and traded. It is quite literally the next logical extension of finance and markets.

Subscribe now

The implications for crypto are significant.

If major institutions begin integrating tokenized assets into advisory and portfolio construction, it creates real demand for the underlying rails that make this possible.

Which ideally you have exposure to…..

That includes smart contract platforms, tokenization protocols, custody solutions, and onchain liquidity venues. Instead of relying purely on speculation, certain tokens begin to tie directly into financial infrastructure and transaction flow.

In my opinion it also reinforces the idea that the next phase of crypto adoption is not retail driven hype but serious institutional integration. The winners in that environment are likely to be protocols that can handle compliance, scale, and interoperability with existing financial systems.

In short, this is less about crypto replacing Wall Street and more about Wall Street showing that they are moving onchain (during a time when most retail folks have thrown in the towel or are distracted by stocks).

• Bitwise launched its Avalanche ETF ($BAVA) this week, with in-house staking offering 5.4% staking rewards to investors (CoinTelegraph)

• Whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013 (Bitfinex)

• CoinDesk is reporting that negotiations on the crypto CLARITY Act have been narrowed to just 2-3 unresolved issues with a Senate staffer describing the draft as “very close,” citing to a JPMorgan report

• Morgan Stanley clients accumulated over $100,000,000 worth of $BTC in the first week of its ETF going live (WhaleInsider)

• Chainlink partners with SIX Group, operator of the Swiss and Spanish national exchanges, to bring €2+ trillion in European equities data onchain (CoinTelegraph)

Additionally, it is worth highlighting the onchain AI narrative is starting to take shape as the next layer of crypto infrastructure and gain steam online.

Instead of just tokenizing assets, teams are starting to put data, models, and agents directly onchain, enabling autonomous systems to execute trades, manage treasuries, and interact with protocols in real time.

The real unlock here is coordination. AI agents can plug into DeFi rails and operate 24/7, allocating capital, arbitraging markets, and optimizing strategies without human input. That turns crypto from a passive asset class into an active, machine driven economy. Pretty wild to watch this all coming together.

If this scales, the value shifts toward tokens tied to data access, compute, and agent coordination rather than just simple financial primitives, stuff like:

Chainlink (LINK)

The Graph (GRT)

Render (RENDER)

Near Protocol (NEAR)

Akash Network (AKT)

The endgame here is essentially a fully onchain system where capital and intelligence move together.

As I have said guys, now is not the time to ignore this space. There is still a disconnect between crypto and legacy markets for now. Don’t wait until that changes.

Global News

It would seem my monkey brained thesis that the markets are getting immune to Iran headlines has some validity to it. After the initial spike in oil and volatility, the reaction has clearly faded.

Equities have stabilized, oil has pulled back from its highs, and the broader market is starting to look through the conflict rather than react to every headline.

On top of that we now we even have Trump indicating Cuba might be next.

The Pentagon has reportedly began early stage discussions with automakers like General Motors and Ford Motor Company about potentially shifting manufacturing capacity toward weapons and military equipment as U.S. stockpiles get drawn down.

Refer a friend

One thing is for sure, you can likely feel good about your defense positions for the remainder of the Trump administration as we continue to see a steady drumbeat of geopolitical tension, rising global defense budgets, and a clear shift toward hard power.

From Middle East flare ups to Eastern Europe and now the growing focus on China, the direction is consistent. More spending, faster procurement cycles, and a heavy emphasis on next-gen warfare including drones, AI, and autonomous systems.

• Trump said this week China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran (InsiderWire)

• The IEA announced that Europe has just 6 weeks worth of jet fuel remaining as the Iran War shortage worsens (Kobeissi Letter)

• Minnesota legislators filed to impeach Tim Walz this week (InsiderWire)

• Pete Hegseth announced that the U.S. will launch “Operation Economic Fury” on Iran

• Syria says that it has taken control of all bases previously operated by US forces (AFP/Insider Paper)

• Former Virginia Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax and his wife found dead in apparent murder-suicide (BNO News)

• The White House has said it will investigate reports that 10 US nuclear scientists have recently gone missing or died (Remarks)

• Police in South Africa said Thursday they arrested anti-Western activist Kemi Seba, who is wanted in Benin for “inciting rebellion (The Africa Report)

Have a great rest of the week guys - we will be back with a short review on Saturday morning for all of the early morning espresso enjoyers.

See you guys on X. Make sure to head to the store if you want to cop a new Yacht Club T Shirt. I will be re-launching the Somalia Yacht Club shirt later today in summer colors.

Leave a comment

Follow Us on X for More Live Updates

Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord

Arbitrage Andy Merch Shop

Monitor the Situation on Polymarket

Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.

Hope the week is off to a good start.

Spring is here in full effect. Weather is improving, markets look like they want to go vertical at some point, and it’s the official start of veiny season (IYKYK).

Our long standing partner Jay Butler is running their annual tax day sale, so if you need some fresh drivers, loafers, or sleds make sure to check them out for 15% off the entire site.

Just use the discount code: TaxDay26. I am a proponent of the dark brown alligator leather (which I will be rocking south of the equator soon) but they’ve got some solid new additions if you need to supplement your sled fleet.

You can cop a pair here.

The vibes in markets shifted pretty obviously yesterday and there could be some early signs of things to come beginning to surface. (which I pointed out last week) had a really solid day yesterday up almost 4% as software names managed to start catching some bids. moved higher well on the heels of President Trump’s truth social post on the company last week.

Even crypto is starting to show some life, liquidating bears yesterday with no mercy as Size Lord Michael Saylor announced another buy of Saylor $1 billion of BTC at $71,902.

Type of energy I am trying to harness. Absolute psycho lol.

This all comes at an odd time when most normies are panicking and LARPING Big Short scenes in their studio apartments.

I pointed out last week and on X over the weekend that I think markets are beginning to get fatigued to the Iran headlines. We saw a similar trend play out with Covid, Ukraine, and the trade war with China/Tariff mania in the beginning of this year.

Aren’t you tired of it all? I am.

I don’t really give a shit if 56 or 59 ships go through the Hormuz or if the next round of peace talks fails before the next meeting goes great.

It’s all noise. It’s going to end eventually, maybe sooner than most realize as Polymarket currently has the odds for peace by June 30th sitting at 60% and climbing.

Are you ready for that impact to markets? Because there is an absurd amount of folks on the sidelines right now.

In my humble opinion, markets want higher.

You can feel it.

I suggest carving out some time to read today’s post before market open.

We will go over:

• Institutional buy activity and signals for where the market sits (what JPM and Morgan Stanley are buying)

• Equity positions and ETF names I like this week to play a bounce

• Bitcoin and crypto’s rally yesterday, what I think the rest of the year holds

• The major global news stories breaking this week

Speed is the name of the game in markets. By the time you get 100% comfortable and convinced of something you can rest assured you are late to the party. The reality is the gap between asset owners and folks who don’t own anything is just getting bigger and bigger.

Part of that is because people always try to time markets and nail the absolute bottom or top.

Just accumulate guys. Be patient. As I have said before there is an unprecedented amount of noise in the world today, with much of it designed to force you to cough up your positions and sell them to the next dude who knows we are going higher in due time.

Quite a bit to cover today, let’s get into it before market open.

Subscribe now

Morgan Stanley & JPMorgan Are Buying The Dip

First things first. Wall Street is already leaning into the dip.

JPMorgan Chase came out bluntly telling clients to “keep calm and carry on buying the dip,” framing the recent selloff as a macro driven shakeout rather than anything being fundamentally broken.

Morgan Stanley came in and echoed the same tone, calling this a “correction, not a bear market,” and pointing to improving earnings expectations and more reasonable valuations after the pullback.

The backdrop they’re highlighting is still pretty constructive all things considered. S&P earnings growth tracking in the low to mid teens, positioning cleaned up a bit, and some of the excess in crowded trades starting to unwind (especially in software which has gotten beaten TF down amid AI hype from Anthropic).

But let’s be realistic here, the message isn’t just “buy everything.”

The nuance is in where they want exposure and what they are actually shilling.

Read more

Things have been moving very quickly the last month so if you missed any of the guides or posts that we’ve put out make sure to just go back to the archive where you can find them all.

We dropped a follow up to our regular Online Money guides earlier this week. If you are growing tired of corporate, your job, or just not making enough money, I highly suggest you read it. It’s well worth your time.

In fact it’s the greatest antidote to escaping a company and world where the below exchange that went viral on X is normalized. Can you imagine the levels of soy? The levels of sheer corporate tele tubby slop?

I don’t even have words for this lol.

So fucking glad I won’t deal with these types of people ever again and it’s because I started making a living online. That wouldn’t have been possible without starting, so stop putting it off if you

Subscribe now

Markets & Asset Performance

If you are getting tired of the constant back and forth in markets and headlines I can assure you that you are not alone.

I am kind of over all of it.

President Trump’s statements have gotten more and more wild/hyperbolic, you have Iran simultaneously denying things and agreeing to them, and you have other regional players making things confusing as well.

The latest was that some sort of peace deal or temporary cease fire was struck earlier this week on the heels of Trump’s insane “ending an entire civilization tweet”.

But then he pulled off a deal, or at least we were told he did.

And so just like that we are back into the TACO/flip flop version of markets and reality. Then the Israelis blew the cease fire off and carpet bombed Lebanon with over 100 air strikes. Iran is running their mouth again and the market surge that came from the “cease fire” is just slipping.

It’s all noise. Look at the price of oil since March started it’s an absolute chop fest with Polymarket odds for $150+ sitting at 6% right now.

My take is it doesn’t really matter WHAT is happening anymore so long as it doesn’t involve a tactical nuclear weapon or American boots on the ground.

We just wait now.

Trump cannot keep this up into midterms. As of this morning the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. We know based on the Research post and other data points, Iran is letting ships through on a case by case basis, charging high premiums (some in crypto) for safe passage.

Share ARB Letter

Make sure you check out the new post on where they interview @CRUDEOIL231 on X, a portfolio manager for the hedge fund arm of a commodities fund. Some great insights into the Iran conflict so far.

• US CPI data came in at 3.3%, lower than expectations

• February PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, ended up unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8% and core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%. This is the last “pre Iran” print (Kobeissi Letter)

• Citadel’s Ken Griffin said this week that Data Center spend this year alone could surpass $500B

• Oil prices have surged back over $100

• Disney is planning to eliminate as many as 1,000 positions in the coming Weeks (WSJ/Zerohedge)

• U.S. energy inflation soared +10.9% in March, the biggest monthly increase since 2005 (Polymarket)

Anthropic dropped one of the more important AI developments of the year this week with its new model, Claude Mythos and they’re not releasing it publicly.

This isn’t just a better chatbot. It can autonomously find and exploit software vulnerabilities across major systems, effectively turning AI into an offensive cyber tool (which sent cyber stocks tumbling this week). In testing, it uncovered thousands of zero day bugs, some decades old, and showed how easily these exploits could be chained together. The bigger shift here is the collapse in the skill barrier to be frank.

What once required elite hackers can now be prompted, massively scaling cyber offense.

Instead of releasing it, Anthropic is giving limited access to 12 major tech firms, financial institutions, and government partners to patch vulnerabilities, which tells you everything about how serious this is.

Zooming out, this is the industrialization of cyber warfare where we have AI scanning, finding, and exploiting weaknesses at scale while defenders scramble to keep up. The market hasn’t fully priced this in yet, but policymakers are starting to pay attention, with the Federal Reserve reportedly holding a meeting shortly to discuss the implications of advanced AI driven cyber risk on financial stability.

Some things worth paying attention to in equities:

• Unusual Whales highlighted that Representative Josh Gottheimer has disclosed up to $1 million in Microsoft call options expiring June 2026. Gottheimer is a former executive. Guy has access to all kinds of AI/cyber briefings. was a name we highlighted two weeks ago

• Quiver Quantitative on X reported that Representative Byron Donalds has filed some new trades including $30,000 of Paypal stock. He sits on the House Financial Services Committee.

I am okay watching markets this week, and do not feel compelled to make any rash moves besides adding some and .

In my humble opinion, the bias leans bullish. I very much believe markets want to go higher. They’re just still working out how this Iran debacle can be resolved in the short term.

Ultimately I anticipate that the market gets bored of Iran headlines like it eventually did during the tariff rants by Trump. You can only crater markets off new escalation headlines so many times before people stop caring.

For the better part of the last year, markets were driven by a narrow set of narratives including AI, liquidity, and the assumption that macro risks could be ignored. That’s shifted entirely.

Geopolitical conflict is creeping back into the equation, energy is reasserting itself as a key input/risk, and volatility is being repriced after a period of complacency, but I still think this is all in the rear view mirror soon.

Subscribe now

Crypto

Bitcoin made a sneaky move higher leading into the purported cease fire this week, reaching the $72,000 range before cooling off a bit today. Crypto extreme fear gauges have been cranking for weeks and weeks now.

The space is a ghost town on social media.

Which SHOULD excite you if you are underexposed.

Institutions continue to build in silence. We even had a Canary PEPE ETF pop up this week and the announcement Trump will be hosting a meme coin conference. BlackRock and other major issuers saw continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs this week.

• A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed proposed “Canary Pepe ETF” under a new S-1 registration statement

• President Trump is set to host a meme coin conference at Mar-a-Lago later this month (Polymarket)

• Coinbase expanded its derivatives offering and international push, highlighting the ongoing shift of trading activity offshore amid U.S. regulatory pressure

• Japan approved a bill that will regulate Bitcoin and crypto as financial instruments, Japan's Nikkei reports (Bitcoin Magazine)

The latest on the Clarity Act is that momentum is picking back up, but it’s still stuck in political limbo.

The bill aims to clearly define whether crypto assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction and establish a proper market structure framework, and while it already cleared the House with bipartisan support, progress in the Senate has slowed over disagreements around stablecoins and broader regulatory control.

Then we have pressure building from policymakers to get something passed, with growing concerns that regulatory uncertainty is pushing capital and innovation offshore. The takeaway is simple in my mind, there’s real urgency, but with politics in the way, the window to pass meaningful crypto legislation in the U.S. might be narrowing.

Got to get errrr done. I will be watching BTC/ETH closely as this consolidation phase seems promising.

Share

Political Fractures

There’s been some pretty strange rifts in US politics that I think are worth covering today.

Unless you live under a rock you’ve realized the “right” in the US has begun to fracture a bit. You have one group of people that are growing increasingly frustrated with President Trump’s actions so far and another group that truly believe him and his administration can do no wrong.

Objectively we have seen a deviation from what was talked about and in some cases, promised by Trump, during his campaign. There’s been no mass deportations. We have a new war, after being promised none. There was an abandonment from the fraud persecution and emptying of the swamp. Nobody was really charged, the ICE raids have eased up, insider trading is rampant, virtually nothing changed.

Nothing was done about Epstein and I think most folks (even self proclaimed right wingers) would agree with me that Trump’s cabinet and administration is full of some people who are proving to be absolute clowns.

It’s a stark reminder that politics is all largely the same.

And I said this ALL LAST YEAR. No one man, let alone Trump, was going to save us.

But in my opinion, and this still hasn’t changed despite my current critiques, he was and is the better option than Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The collapse of the US into full blown marxism and ruin was delayed temporarily (key word temporarily).

But I have to be honest am not sure what’s worse at this point.

• Neo cons starting new wars and enriching themselves while continuing to ignore critical domestic issues and the interest of the American people

Or

• Leftist lunatics continuing to import millions of illegals, engage in lawfare and persecution of political opponents, and spreading cultural marxist doctrine throughout society

The core problem I have with trying to air out the issues with Trump’s performance thus far, is the strong bias opponents of his have. They utterly hate the guy. There is no situation where they would EVER condemn Barack Obama or Biden for doing the same thing in Iran.

The majority are not interested in nuance, so the second you say “I’m disappointed in this specific decision or action by Trump” they come frothing at the mouth saying “SEE I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!! He’s HITLER!!!!!! He’s a FASCIST!!!!!!!”.

There’s no two way discussion to be had. Which is unfortunate for the country.

Refer a friend

In any case, the rift on the right is accelerating.

Yesterday Trump came out on Truth Social criticizing major conservative influencers, some of whom have traditionally supported him or interacted with him in positive manners:

I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs. They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did! They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some “free” and cheap publicity. Now they think they get some “clicks” because they have Third Rate Podcasts, but nobody’s talking about them, and their views are the opposite of MAGA — Or I wouldn’t have won the Presidential Election in a LANDSLIDE. MAGA agrees with me, and just gave CNN a 100% Approval Rating of “TRUMP,” not Hand Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist!

Or Megyn Kelly, who nastily asked me the now famous, “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” question, or “Crazy” Candace Owens, who accuses the Highly Respected First Lady of France of being a man, when she is not, and will hopefully win lots of money in the ongoing lawsuit. Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close! Or Bankrupt Alex Jones, who says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax. These so-called “pundits” are LOSERS, and they always will be! Now Fake News CNN, The Failing New York Times, and all of the other Radical Left “News” Organizations, are “hailing” them, and giving them “positive” press for the first time in their lives.

They’re not “MAGA,” they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA. As President, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on World and Country Affairs and, after a few times, they go “nasty,” just like Marjorie “Traitor” Brown, but I no longer care about that stuff, I only care about doing right for our Country. MAGA is about WINNING and STRENGTH in not allowing Iran to have Nuclear Weapons. MAGA is about MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and these people have no idea how to do that, BUT I DO, because THE UNITED STATES IS NOW THE “HOTTEST” COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Pretty wild and the common thread here is these influencers opposition and criticism of his actions in Iran. Why aren’t we allowed to criticize the Iran involvement? Seems like these influencers and pundits struck some sort of nerve in Trump…..

It’s honestly hilarious watching the flip flopping on pro war anti war camps over the years.

I don’t have to spell out for most of you WHY we are in Iran. The nuclear weapons excuse is lazy and sounds just like Bush 2.0. It’s quite clear we are there to support Israel and likely advance the financial interests of involved parties.

Same shit from the past and it’s happening during a time where most Americans want key issues resolved at home.

If this streak continues I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a blow out in mid terms for Democrats and continued momentum for the next presidential election.

Masters Drama

The Masters Tournament is underway this week at Augusta National Golf Club, with the first round teeing off Thursday and the tournament running through Sunday. As always, it’s one of the most iconic stops in golf, blending elite competition with unmatched tradition.

Heading into the week, Scottie Scheffler sits as the clear favorite, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm close behind.

The early Masters storyline this morning isn’t even about golf, it’s a full-blown culture clash.

Jason Kelce being inserted into coverage at Augusta instantly rubbed people the wrong way, with fans calling it too loud and out of place for one of the most tradition heavy events in sports.

If you had any doubts that “Tradition” and “Heritage” are large social phenomenons right now (and big business opportunities) let them disappear for good.

People are tired of pop culture, loud crass entertainment, and attacks on institutions known for professionalism and elite performance.

At the same time, the broader Kelce circus, from podcast jokes to celebrity crossover moments involving Travis Kelce, has people questioning whether the Masters is drifting toward a more entertainment driven product.

What’s happening at Augusta is really just a microcosm of a much bigger shift. You’re seeing a growing divide between audiences that want polished, high trust, tradition-driven environments and platforms that are optimizing for engagement at all costs.

I don’t really care either way but in a strange way, the backlash is a key signal. It shows that not everything can or should be turned into content. And for investors, operators, or anyone building a brand or business, that’s a powerful takeaway to consider moving forward.

Other Headlines

• U.S. fertility rate falls to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, the lowest ever recorded by the CDC (Gemini)

• A massive chimpanzee group in Uganda has reportedly split into rival factions and descended into a deadly “civil war” (Polymarket) You can follow updates here including the status of alpha male chimps in battle

• The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL over “anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers”

• The scumbag criminal Decarlos Brown Jr. who murdered Iryna Zarutska on a train in Charlotte was found incompetent to stand trial this week

• U.S. Border Patrol apprehended four “British” nationals after they crossed illegally into Maine from Canada through a remote area. The individuals were identified as Ali Mohammed Ali Abdullah, Hameed Mohammed Nagi, Ibrahim Ayyub Khan, and Mohammed Sultan Saleh (Open Source Intel/Bill Melugin)

• All eligible young men aged 18–25 will be automatically registered for the U.S. military draft starting December 2026 (Global Eye News)

Have a great weekend guys. Hopefully it’s a quiet one as the weather begins to turn for the better. I will see you all on X and Discord. IF you have questions on the online money post from Tuesday just shoot me a note, happy to discuss products, websites, etc.

Andy

Leave a comment

Follow Us on X for More Live Updates

Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord

Arbitrage Andy Shop

Monitor the Situation on Polymarket

Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.

Alright let’s get to it lords.

Yes it looks like we just struck Kharg Island in Iran, yes it’s going to be a super eventful week in financial markets but I want to take a step back on to focus on a guide that can benefit the individual reader today.

Right now let’s revisit making money on the internet in 2026 and beyond.

It’s been awhile since we have taken a closer look at the whole side hustle/online money grind so I wanted to go back over it, especially considering this is one of the chief ways I get my mind away from markets and news cycles and do something productive.

More importantly, this is becoming a crucial piece of the puzzle for those of you who feel like your corporate exit opps are narrowing OR that your role or industry is going to start seeing pressure from AI, economic woes, or cutbacks.

For those of you that are relatively new here, I am Arbitrage Andy.

I got my start in online brand building/business with the meme page Arbitrage Andy on instagram in 2017. Kind of wild this is my 9th year doing this now. There’s a lesson in that alone, but more on that later.

It didn’t take long in 2017 before I started to expand the brand (past just a meme page) and look for ways to monetize online (and start new ventures with the same blueprint down the line).

I’d have to review specifics across platforms to nail it super accurately but to give you a rough idea, I’ve managed to drive multiple millions in revenue online over the last couple years alone.

I only share that so you know you’re not listening to a drop shipper who made $3,041 last year on Temu branded spine decompresser boots you hang upside down in on the door frame.

My pointers and guides on this topic work.

And here is the truth in 2026:

• The internet is no longer optional, it’s THE primary economic battleground

• AI and distribution have collapsed barriers to entry

• Traditional careers have capped upside. They are slow and mostly controlled

• Online income offers you uncapped, fast, asymmetric potential

So today I am going to share my top tips, tricks, and observations from 9 years working in online business, social media, and e commerce.

Subscribe now

Succeeding in making money online and diversifying how you make money will literally change your life. It’s kind of funny, I look back on former sales/trading roles I had and look at the markets or regions I would cover. Very often I was limited in who I could transact with, market to, or sell to.

Online business is the exact opposite. You have a virtually endless pool of potential customers or buyers. You are no longer constrained by geography, by your boss, by your firm’s product set, or by some arbitrary territory line drawn on a CRM dashboard. You wake up, you build, you publish, and the entire world is your market.

That shift alone is one of the most under-appreciated advantages of the internet economy.

And yet, most people still don’t take advantage of it. They doom scroll instead of building. They consume constantly instead of creating. They wait for some type of permission instead of just starting it.

Meanwhile, there are 22-year-olds with a laptop and WiFi quietly building $10k/month income streams in niches you’ve never even heard of. There are anonymous accounts printing cash from digital products. There are small brands doing millions a year selling simple, well-positioned products. There are one-man media companies out earning entire corporate teams (unless you’re Anthropic of course).

If you:

• Want to diversify your income

• Hedge yourself a bit from corporate or day job volatility

• Protect yourself in the event of lay offs

• Build your own thing

Then you are in the right place.

This guide is an update for 2026 so I would recommend reading some of our older online guides afterwards if you need a full refresher.

For me personally, seeing success in making money online completely changed my life for the better. It made me more money, allowed me to spend more time with my family, improved my mental health, and allowed me to pursue other things I wanted to do in life.

The opportunity is there for anyone willing to put in the work.

The people who will really win in 2026 and beyond are going to own distribution, attention, or digital assets (ideally a combination of the three).

Let’s get into it starting with your options for how exactly you approach this.

Read more

Crazy 72 hours. Hope everyone had a good Easter weekend.

Some quick headlines this afternoon.

• Jamie Dimon is saying that Private Credit losses will be larger than previously feared

• Sam Altman of OpenAI says AI superintelligence is so close, and so disruptive, that the U.S. may need a “new social contract” (Axios/Coindesk)

• US M2 money supply has hit a new all time high

• Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an absurd $373 Billion in cash (Bar Chart)

• Republicans are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms (CNN/LeadingReport)

• "Trump wants to add nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt with his new military budget," (FORTUNE/Unusual Whales)

• Polymarket is going to launch a 1:1 USDC-backed crypto collateral token

• Japan's 10-year government bond yield rises to 28-year high (Polymarket)

• JPMorgan says tokenized real-world assets market could grow to $13 trillion by 2030 (WatcherGuru). Hope you read THIS GUIDE.

• BlackRock is planning a Nasdaq 100 ETF in direct challenge to Invesco’s monopoly with QQQ (Eric Balchunas)

The latest news from the Middle East is that Iran has rejected the US ceasefire, demanding a permanent end to war.

President Trump has said there is a deadline of Tuesday before he begins targeting bridges and power plants across Iran. Polymarket odds for a complete ceasefire by the end of this month sit only at 28% as of this morning.

If you missed the top posts from last week you can find them below:

Subscribe now

What comes next is anyone’s guess but let’s review the wild events of this weekend and how you can try to make sense of this evolving conflict.

Rescue of US weapons Systems Officer in Iran

In a story reminiscent of Behind Enemy Lines 2.0, the Iran war has a new legendary lore tale.

This weekend it was confirmed by US President Donald Trump that the second member of the F-15E crew shot down over Iran had been rescued in a daring operation involving many different arms of the US military and Special Operations community. The F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down on April 3, 2026.

As a primer for those who aren’t privy, Iran doesn’t rely on one single anti aircraft system, they run a layered, hybrid air defense network built from Russian, domestic, and asymmetric systems.

They have long range S-300 (Russian-made) systems and Bavar-373 (Iranian-built) systems. Medium range Khordad-3 / Khordad-15s (mobile systems), and then MANPADS (the classic shoulder fired system).

It would appear that Trump’s claim of complete air superiority over Iran is not rooted in reality. An A-10 Warthog was also reported to be shot down last week.

While we do not have the man’s name yet (bit strange maybe), we know he was the plane's weapons systems officer (not the pilot) and a Colonel.

The pilot was rescued earlier, but the second recovery was far more complex.

This kind of operation doesn’t happen without the full U.S. special operations stack filled with elite units and pipe hitters that love a firefight, even if it is deep inside hostile territory. It most likely included:

• U.S. Air Force Pararescue (PJs) – these are highly trained boots recovery specialists

• 160th SOAR (Night Stalkers) – leveraged recently in Venezuela. They are low level, night infiltration and exfil experts

• DEVGRU - Also known as SEAL Team Six

• Delta Force – From what we can tell Delta was used for perimeter security / direct action contingency

• JSOC oversight – For mission coordination and execution

It was reported this op involved "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel".

Supporting layers almost certainly included:

• ISR (drones, satellites, signals intel)

• Electronic warfare to degrade detection

• Air cover staged outside or at the edge of Iranian airspace

• Reported CIA counterintelligence operations to confuse IRGC and local forces as to the whereabouts of the downed aviator

Quite the operation and as many were predicting online, you can rest assured there will be a deluge of books, shows, and films made on this rescue.

To understand how complex and daunting this operation was you need a grasp on where it took place. All signs point to the mountainous regions inside Iran, likely in the western corridor in areas tied to the Zagros range, where steep ridgelines, deep valleys, and sparse infrastructure create a near worst case recovery environment.

That matters because you have terrain limiting landing zones, radar exposure increasing in valleys, movement that is slow and dangerous, and comms that are unreliable.

Share ARB Letter

Once the weapons systems officer survived the initial ejection, the situation became a race against time.

He immediately shifted into evasion mode, minimizing his signal, using the terrain for concealment, and waiting for a possible recovery window.

He undoubtedly leveraged his SERE training (Survival Evasion Resistance Escape) to successfully evade the enemy. For those unfamiliar, SERE is a training concept originally pioneered by the British in World War II. Training has evolved over the years but places a high focus on fieldcraft, improvised equipment, water purification, food procurement, self defense and navigation.

SERE training gets granular too. You have to take into account things as specific as where you choose to walk, what vegetation you disrupt, and even smells you might be giving off.

Imagine this guy’s situation.

Deep inside Iran, wounded, with bounties on his head and unfriendly local militias and tribesmen wandering looking for him as IRGC units descend on his position from all angles.

Pretty wild stuff. You are absolutely cooked if you get caught. The US loses leverage and chances are you end up like Sergeant Brodie from homeland within a few weeks or inside some no name prison where a bunch of guys that look like cracked our Jafar’s from Aladdin are screaming at you from behind rusty prison cells.

But this guy apparently went sicko mode to achieve his extraction from the warzone.

Time reported that the Colonel managed to hike up a 7,000-foot mountain ridge line and hide in a crevice to evade capture where he then activated his emergency beacon to be located.

MQ-9 Reaper drones were reportedly used to ensure enemy forces could not get within effective range of the Colonel’s location.

US Forces allegedly seized an abandoned airfield where they set up a makeshift operating base near Isfahan. Isfahan’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center (INTC) is Iran's largest nuclear research complex, operating multiple facilities, including research reactors, a fuel production plant, and a uranium conversion facility.

The story does have some “odd” twists to it (which lend some credence to alternative theories popping up online). Apparently the two MC-130 transport planes flown in got "stuck in the sand” which meant US forces had to destroy them to prevent technology from falling into IRGC hands.

You will remember this same scenario took place during the raid to kill Osama Bin Laden in Abbottobad Pakistan. SEALS from Team Six were forced to destroy an advanced Blackhawk when it crashed into the compound.

Iranian media, for what it is worth, claims the wrecked remains show much more than just two planes.

Video footage from the night of the rescue show intense firefights and explosions. Whatever happened, it’s safe to say shit hit the fan hard. US Forces were said to have extracted with the Colonel safely.

No word on casulties.

Maybe we learn in time what really took place but one things for sure, the US military has become much more brazen in its operations this year. Russia and China have to be taking note and adjusting accordingly.

Regardless of your political views or views on this war, if it happened the way they’re telling us it’s pretty epic we have the capability to insert directly into a hostile country, burn millions on equipment, and bring our guys home.

Subscribe now

Fog of War and First Hand Accounts

One thing I would keep a close eye on moving forward.

X and the internet were absolutely LITTERED with AI and fake posts. All throughout this conflict the true misinformation and propaganda campaigns have been insane.

You have literal US politicians falling for some of the posts lol.

The amount of AI slop posting has surged like 200x in the past several weeks.

It becomes so crazy you don’t know what to think.

There are also some alternate theories floating around about what this operation in Iran actually was.

FinanceLancelot on X and others believe this was all about uranium and seizing deposits from inside Iran (not THAT far fetched).

The "downed pilot" was a fake cover story for a failed US military operation to capture Iran’s primary stockpile of highly enriched 60% uranium, roughly 440–970 pounds.

The primary stockpile is located at Isfahan, exactly where the pilot was "lost."

This explains why the US heavily bombed the area while "searching" and why the C-130s were destroyed without loss of life.

The C-130s were hit on the ground while the special forces attempted to secure the material. The entire operation became a massive rescue operation to extract the soldiers.

—FinananceLancelot

Who knows what actually went down. You can read the full thread here.

The fog of war is real. We likely won’t even have the real story on the pilots for awhile. Does seem a bit odd to use two C-130s but what do I know is that I wouldn’t put any elaborate operation past this administration now after the success we had in Venezuela.

I HAVE to believe Trump wants some type of off ramp option. What better method than physically removing the materials he purports that this entire conflict is about.

Now if you want some excellent first person perspectives and field notes from the ground check out the report Research dropped. This plays more on the economic and markets side but it’s pretty cool.

They actually sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz (on a lord of war type mission) to gather intelligence and investigate what is actually going on. He went with $15,000 cash, some cigars, some zyns, and some recording equipment (that he managed to smuggle past officials in Oman).

Eventually he got a speedboat (with no GPS) and was able to take videos and record the true state of ship flows through the Hormuz.

Share ARB Letter

Their piece is interesting because of the narratives most people cling to when it comes to Hormuz.

The dominant narrative has been simple:

• Open = no problem

• Closed = oil shock

The reality, as they show in their research, is more nuanced.

The Strait is still active, but it’s no longer neutral.

It’s being managed in real time.

Some ships get through and others don’t. Flows are being redirected, delayed, or quietly rerouted through alternative channels. It’s selective pressure of some sort.

There’s a growing layer of “invisible” oil flows:

• Tankers operating without clear tracking

• Cargo being rerouted through secondary hubs

• Supply that doesn’t show up cleanly in official data

People make judgments and we end up with a market that thinks it understands supply but doesn’t actually see all of it.

What Citrini’s research shows is that this isn’t purely a disruption story, it’s also a distortion story.

Official data is missing a meaningful portion of real world flows, shadow fleets are moving oil outside traditional systems (approved by Iran), and Iran is effectively controlling access without fully shutting anything down. They are charging premiums and making decisions on a case by case basis.

Markets are built on clarity, and this environment offers none lol.

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t this binary switch it’s like a pressure valve being actively adjusted in real time. A massive share of global oil still moves through this corridor, which means even partial disruptions or hidden flows can have outsized consequences for markets and our bags.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see more investment firms and companies begin to rely more heavily on people out in the field, especially with how kinetic certain regions have become across the globe.

For now all eyes are on the deadline put forth by President Trump tomorrow.

Bitcoin has sneakily reclaimed the $70,000 range as Michael Saylor announces a new $300M buy. Ethereum has rallied to $2,164.

The S&P 500 is up slightly alongside the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

Looks like everyone is waiting for positive news and awaiting Trump’s comments this afternoon. Know this…..

If the ceasefire collapses, this will not stay contained. It turns into full scale economic war almost immediately.

A U.S. strike on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would hit the backbone of the country’s economy. You’d likely see even more rolling blackouts across major cities within hours, with cascading effects on communications, water systems, and basic services, which would boost civil unrest and further deteriorate the situation on the ground. Industrial output would stall, supply chains would break down, and internal displacement would start to rise as conditions get worse.

Then we are back to square one.

For now, on the heels of this apparent rescue, it seems like there’s still a narrow chance for an off ramp. The next 24–48 hours matter more than anything we’ve seen so far.

Tomorrow we are going to dive into a markets refresher as well as a review of how to make money online. We will talk through new trends, products, and themes that are selling very well right now.

See you guys then.

Andy

Leave a comment

Follow Us on X for More Live Updates

Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord

Arbitrage Andy Shop

Monitor the Situation on Polymarket

Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.

Good morning kings.

We are at what looks like it could be the key crossroads moment for this conflict in Iran. Things will not snap back immediately to normal, but we’re getting close to where a decision is going to have to be made by this administration.

Last night President Trump began his address by thanking US troops efforts as well as touching on the recent

He then moved into updates on Iran and Operation Epic Fury.

President Trump reaffirmed his former promise to not allow Iran to become a nuclear power. He summarized former Iranian proxy and direct attacks on US forces and allies in the region over the past several years as well as the reported 45,000 Iranians killed by their own government during anti regime protests and activity.

After recounting Iranian military capability and the effective strikes by US forces over the past weeks, President Trump said that US military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion”.

But he also said that Iran would be hit hard in the next 2-3 weeks and sent back to the stone age. Oil ripped during the speech with Larry Fink of BlackRock saying that oil at $150 would trigger a global recession. S&P 500 futures erased over $550 billion in market cap during the speech (Kobeissi Letter).

Trump added that if a deal is not reached, Iranian power plants would be targeted next.

I would call this speech soft escalation. It leaves the door open for further strikes and ground operations if necessary and was by no means a declaration of complete victory or an announcement of any meaningful peace deal being reached.

With the vibe change yesterday, I think it’s worth a closer look at some equity plays that can be taken and some names I think are approaching some valuable levels if you are oriented for the long term. We will also review the defense stack today.

This will end, but there’s going to be an insane amount of volatility to take advantage of until that point.

There’s nowhere to hide right now, so we must face the onslaught of 2026 macro.

Subscribe now

Markets

Markets came into this week hoping for clarity or peace. What they got instead was escalation risk.

Kind of odd considering many thought Trump was set to announce some sort of deescalation.

Trump’s latest speech struck a far more aggressive tone than many expected, with a clear emphasis on strength, deterrence, and keeping all options on the table regarding Iran.

There was no real signal of de-escalation, virtually no off-ramp presented, and no attempt to cool tensions lmao. If anything, the message reinforced the idea that this situation could stretch out or intensify.

I don’t know about you but I am not buying the weapons of mass destruction 2.0 campaign. Fool me…… can’t get fooled again!

• Nike fell to its lowest price in more than a decade this week

• Oracle laid off 20,000-30,000 employees yesterday morning with a single 6 am email (Polymarket)

• US diesel futures approach all-time high level, last up 13% (MacroEdge)

• Citadel's crypto exchange is said to be applying to be a national bank trust so that it can provide custody, asset management and trading services (Eric Balchunas)

• The U.S. hiring pace fell to its lowest level since 2011, excluding the pandemic (CoinTelegraph)

• The price of diamonds has crashed to its lowest level this century (Polymarket)

• U.S. Challenger layoffs totaled 60,620 in March, up 25% from February but down 78% from a year ago. AI was the top reason for cuts at 15,341 (25% of the total) while tech has announced 52,050 layoffs so far in 2026 (Polymarket Money)

The private credit space ($3.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM) globally) is starting to show real signs of stress, something we have touched on briefly in past weeks.

Blue Owl recently capped redemptions at 5% after seeing a surge in withdrawal requests, with investor demand to exit far exceeding what the fund structure can handle.

This highlights a core issue in private credit. It obviously performs well when capital is flowing in, but liquidity can dry up quickly when sentiment shifts, forcing funds to then limit withdrawals and manage more and more pressure internally.

Stepping back, this is not just one firm now. It is an early signal that the broader private credit boom is now being tested in a higher volatility higher rate environment in which major geopolitical and macro black swans threaten to blow someone the f*ck up lol.

Equity/ETF Picks This Week

Okay let’s talk stock and ETF picks now.

Read more

Given how quickly things are bouncing back and forth with the Iran conflict we’re going to get a quick post out this morning and will likely have follow ups tomorrow morning and Thursday.

If you want to catch up with our post from Friday you can find it below. It’s a quick look at what I was buying last week.

It was announced that there will be a Pentagon briefing today at 8 AM ET. It will be the first joint press conference since March 19.

This isn’t some mystery event it’s a scheduled Pentagon briefing:

• Led by Pete Hegseth (Secretary of War)

• With Dan Caine

• Held at 8:00 AM ET at the Pentagon

• Standard on camera press briefing format

This will be the big event to watch today before market open with most seeing a troops on the ground announcement being the worst case scenario.

The odds do not look great for us either with reports of big build ups and prediction markets like Polymarket now pegging the chances we move in before April 30th at a whopping 63%. Higher for December. No bueno folks.

Make sure to tune in.

Could set the tone for assets in trading today.

Subscribe now

Market Run Down

Yesterday had a clear risk off tone, driven almost entirely by rising concern around the Iran situation. I watched as some of my late longs into tech got slaughtered like Orcs at the gates of Isengard.

Equities slowly churned lower throughout the session, with weakness most noticeable in tech and cyclical names as investors pulled back exposure rather than press psychotic bets into uncertainty.

I would not say it was a full panic, but you could sense the shift in posture as capital moved to the sidelines as headlines picked up. To be fair the headlines change by the hour so I don’t blame folks for being a bit more defensive or sitting on their hands for the time being, this meeting this morning from the Pentagon could be a major happening as the week gets going.

Unfortunately for oil bears, Cramer may have just screwed you over with his oil top call.

The market continues to be an absolute cluster. ExxonMobil reviewed contingency plans for Middle East operations this week amid heightened concerns over their potential supply disruptions.

Saudi linked operations have already faced production disruptions, Asian buyers are scrambling to secure alternative supply, and major shipping firms are dealing with rising costs and logistical breakdowns as routes shift. Insurance premiums are climbing, timelines are stretching, and the friction just keeps on building everywhere.

One thing is for sure.

Even if all of this stopped TODAY we would continue feeling the impacts of this latest Middle East venture well into summer.

My Shopping & Watchlist Continued (we will expand on this tomorrow)

Couple names I am hyper focused on right now outside the adds I made yesterday to and include:

• Google

• Palo Alto Networks (CEO Nikesh Arora bought about $10M of his own stock on the open market)

• Microsoft - TrendSpider is reporting that the weekly RSI hasn't seen this low in over 15 years.

Google just dropped a major quantum computing update that brings the theoretical breaking of modern encryption closer to reality (which bears are going to love)

Share ARB Letter

Their team optimized Shor’s algorithm to crack the core math behind ECDSA, the system securing Bitcoin, Ethereum, TLS, and most of the internet, using far fewer resources than previously thought.

In theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could now break this encryption in minutes, not years. Key word “in theory”. We will expand on the validity of this tomorrow morning. Ledger’s CEO said quantum threat is definitely advancing quickly, but that Bitcoin remains secure for now due to limits on hardware.

Crypto traded pretty poorly on Sunday and Monday, continuing to behave more like a high beta risk asset than a safe haven in this environment, although Bitcoin looks OKAY compared to some assets since this war began.

Both bitcoin and broader crypto saw some selling pressure as liquidity rotated out of speculative assets and into cash and traditional hedges.

Meanwhile, rates didn’t offer much relief. It seems there’s still no meaningful shift away from the “higher for longer” narrative, so you effectively had geopolitical risk layered on top of an already tight macro backdrop.

Market Headlines

• The S&P 500 correction is nearing its end stage Morgan Stanley strategists said recently (Unusual Whales)

• The Walmart Recession Indicator is at highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis (Simply Bitcoin)

• Citi bank has said that brent oil prices could hit $150-200 (Unusual Whales)

• US gas prices have officially surged above $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022 (Kobeissi Letter)

• The shoe company Allbirds (which had a market cap of $40B at one point) is now being sold for about $30M

• Chainlink Labs and Anchorage Digital join as founding members of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a new initiative to advance US digital asset and blockchain policy (CoinTelegraph)

• Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto sold $20 million in BTC at 40% loss recently

• KuCoin is set to pay $500K to the CFTC over unregistered exchange claims (CoinTelegraph)

• The US Department of Labor proposed a rule that would allow Bitcoin investments in 401(k)s (BitcoinMagazine)

Global News

The US Department of War announced on Monday it will be holding a press conference this morning at 8 AM ET. Could be mayhem, could be a nothing burger.

Based on the timing and who is involved there are a few predictions on what is going to be announced:

Escalation (most watched)

This is the highest-impact scenario (oil, defense stocks, and general risk-off probably ensue).

• Ground troops discussion

• Expanded strikes / targets

• Broader regional involvement

De-escalation / framework

Our bags would celebrate but I just don’t think this is super likely unfortunately.

• Negotiation updates

• Partial ceasefire signals

• “mission accomplished lite” narrative

Keep in mind this would likely trigger a:

• Some kind of relief rally

• Oil pullback

Strategic update (base case)

This is most likely I think, but could also be perceived as negative by markets. You probably would get a:

• Progress report

• “we are achieving objectives”

• No major policy shift

One thing is for sure, I don’t think the classic Trump admin “TACO” trade is over. There’s a high chance we continue to see confusing headlines, contradicting statement from world leaders, and market volatility this week.

And heading into this morning’s Pentagon briefing, the backdrop only reinforces that. Israel is signaling this campaign could last weeks, not days, with continued strikes deeper into Iran.

At the same time, we have Trump oscillating between aggressive escalation with his threats of potentially targeting critical infrastructure, and his talk of negotiations or ceasefires, sometimes within the same news cycle lol.

Subscribe now

Iran isn’t backing down either, continuing missile and drone activity across the region while rejecting diplomatic opportunities. Meanwhile, there’s growing chatter around potential U.S. troop involvement or expanded operations (with reports of large accumulations of troops in the region), but nothing definitive has been confirmed so far.

Other news:

• The mural made for Iryna Zarustka, the young woman killed in Charlotte by a violent career criminal, will be removed after Providence's Mayor Smiley condemned it

• Massive explosions were captured with live video after the the U.S. hit the Isfahan underground missile facility in Iran last night

• European leaders held emergency discussions on energy security as fears of supply disruption intensified

• Cybersecurity firms warned this week of increased state linked cyberattack activity tied to the conflict in Iran

I will see you guys tomorrow morning for a closer look at equities. Thursday we are going to get more into the online business side of things and how to position yourself to take advantage of certain themes throughout the rest of 2026.

Buckle up lords, could be an insane week. See you on X and the Discord this morning.

Andy

Leave a comment

Well it’s looking like the selling is picking up some steam. There’s been more speculation and positioning that looks indicative of a major ground operation taking place in Iran in the foreseeable future.

Reports this week suggest the Pentagon is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional U.S. troops to the Middle East, a move that would meaningfully expand the current military presence in the region.

On top of the that, the UAP/UFO sightings as well as attempted sabotage/terror attacks are spreading across the US. Austin and Ohio residents reported seeing odd fireballs in the sky this week and a Chinese brother and sister duo planted an IED at MacDill Air Force Base the home to CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command in Florida.

Meanwhile you have the White House twitter/x account posting bizzare cryptic schizo posts hourly.

Crazy times is an understatement.

We’re covering it all here.

75% of you voted yesterday for a third post some weeks covering the need to know data from the week in a more synthesized and succint format (hyperlinks etc.). We will trial that in full next weekend.

Arb Letter was designed to be a single source of reference in times like these, summarizing the need to know intelligence you need without all of the fluff and noise you’d find in legacy news or media sources.

If you missed some of the posts from past weeks you can find them below.

The New Rules of Money, Power, and Survival

Is a Massive False Flag Coming?

Anyway let’s get into the good stuff:

• What am I buying today while markets dump hard

• What might be happening after hours today

• Energy market implications of this war

• Why you need to adjust your short term strategy ASAP

Clear now, this is not going to be some fleeting short term joy ride in Iran. This admin has more than likely fucked up or is playing some warped version of 4D chess.

Maybe there’s some bigger stuff we are not privy to but my gut tells me we’ve entered the “too far to turn back” zone which just means we need to factor that into our strategy to avoid losing more and more money.

Something is coming after hours today or over the weekend.

Are we About To Dump Harder?

At this point there’s no doubt about it, markets are beginning to turn bearish.

The Nasdaq is now officially in correction territory, down -10% from its October 2025 high (Kobeissi Letter), Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000, and the S&P 500 is down almost 7% YTD as of today.

Volatility is picking up across equities and crypto, large options expiries are adding pressure to price action, and flows have turned increasingly defensive as capital rotates into mostly energy and cash.

Oil moving higher on Middle East tensions is only adding fuel to the fire, tightening financial conditions at the exact wrong time for all of us who are long and strong.

At the same time, rate cuts are being pushed further and further out. The market and predictions odds on Polymarket are now pricing a higher for longer environment, with meaningful easing not expected until well into 2027. TLDR the Fed is cooked.

What does this mean for your portfolio?

Read more

Hope the week is going well for you guys so far.

One of the biggest pieces of feedback we are getting YTD has been that some folks have time constraints, which in turn leads to them unsubscribing.

Hate to see that given the value I know this publication has for people, so I want to propose something and take a quick poll for those interested.

The typical publishing cadence is paid posts Tuesday, free updates Thursday. If you are open to the idea of me providing a super condensed third post on Saturday mornings, let me know.

It would be succint and essentially review the past week’s content as well as major updates to round off the week (hyperlinks). It wouldn’t be completely bare bones per se, but would be much shorter and brief than our deep dives or full reviews. And we could always test it.

Let me know below.

If you missed our Tuesday paid guide (went out around 8am ET) make sure to check it out. It is a revised and refreshed guide to approaching the world in 2026, complete with strategies that have worked for me across multiple disciplines. If you are on the fence check it out, it is a top read post of 2026 already and is a god compass for your financial, social, and physical goals this year.

Subscribe now

Markets

Bit of a frustrating week for some of our plays. had some super bullish updates but failed to pop over $12. I am still long and strong an do believe that it will take a bit longer for the narrative to play out, particularly the work they are doing in counter drone technology. is in a nice little pocket if you didn’t get some exposure over the past few months and so is although I wouldn’t blame folks if they want to cut and move on from that name.

The and Anduril relationship seems to continue to become more incestuous as well.

is on a ripper up 32% in the past 6 months and I am not surprised to see pop off bottom either. I like here.

We will talk about it in a moment in the global news section but the big Y in the road right now generally speaking, is if you think the US is going to put boots on the ground in Iran.

If it happens, I think it is going to come soon (before April 15th) and maybe as early as next week or this weekend. Polymarket odds do not look good for us, with a nearly 62% chance we enter the country by the end of April.

That is the “hurdle” short term for us that we need to resolve or put behind us.

One of the more bizarre pockets of the market right now is the explosion in , a newly listed public venture fund that effectively gives retail investors exposure to some of the most sought after private tech companies in the world.

Share ARB Letter

At its core, VCX is a publicly traded venture capital vehicle. Instead of buying individual stocks, investors are buying into a basket of late-stage private companies with turbo autists names like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. These assets that have previously been locked behind institutional gates.

Since its debut in March, VCX has gone turbo vertical lol, at one point ripping over 1,000% from its initial listing price, briefly trading near $575 intraday before pulling back. The move has been driven less by fundamentals and more by retail demand for AI exposure and that juicy pre IPO speculation, with investors effectively front running potential listings in the private tech ecosystem.

But the reality is the fund has traded at massive premiums to its underlying net asset value, meaning buyers aren’t just paying for exposure, they’re paying a steep markup for the narrative itself. Too frothy for me right now but definitely an interesting watch.

Might already be in its rug pull era, down 30% today lol.

• The US Postal Service is set to impose 8% surcharge on packages to cover rising fuel costs

• 61% of Americans 18–34 hold negative views of AI (Gemini)

• The Iran War will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to a newly released OECD forecast (Kobeissi Letter)

• is down almost 6% as of 11am ET

• OpenAI has put their erotic chatbot plans on hold ‘indefinitely’ (Financial Times)

• Google launched Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, a new voice model for Gemini Live designed to deliver faster, more natural conversations with fewer pauses and real-time tone adjustment (Polymarket Money).

• The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month (Chicago Fed)

Crypto

This morning Fannie Mae signaled a notable shift in how crypto could factor into the U.S. housing market. Things are looking up kings!

In updated guidance, the agency has indicated that lenders may begin considering certain cryptocurrency holdings as part of a borrower’s financial profile, without requiring full liquidation into cash beforehand, depending on custody and some documentation standards.

Subscribe now

Historically, crypto had to be converted into USD and seasoned in an account before being counted toward reserves. This change likely opens the door for digital assets to be treated more like traditional financial holdings, at least in principle.

Now look this move doesn’t mean widespread adoption overnight but it’s definitely another step toward integrating crypto into core financial infrastructure.

For some borrowers who might be digital coin size lords, it could expand access to credit. For markets it’s a quiet but meaningful signal digital assets are inching closer to institutional normalization (and normalization in everyday society).

• Coinbase has partnered with Better Mortgage to launch crypto-backed home loans

• Tom Lee's BitMine bought another 67,110 ETH worth $144 million yesterday (Real World Asset Watchlist)

• Ondo Finance is partnering with Franklin Templeton to bring tokenized ETFs on-chain with 24/7 trading (CoinMarketCap)

• A big options expiry is coming up for crypto, with roughly $18B+ in crypto derivatives rolling off

Outside of the geopolitical noise and broader market volatility, there have been a few meaningful developments in crypto this week that are worth paying attention to.

On the regulatory front, the tone continues to shift. U.S. regulators are increasingly leaning toward classifying many major tokens as digital commodities rather than securities, removing most of the major overhangs that has weighed on the space for years.

There’s also been more visible coordination between agencies which should suggest a move toward a more unified and workable framework.

At the same time, tokenization (I bolded this for a reason guys! pay attention) continues to push forward behind the scenes. Traditional market infrastructure is slowly being adapted to support blockchain based trading of financial assets, signaling that the long-term integration between crypto and legacy finance is still very much underway.

The bottom line is this: price action may be ass right now but institutionally, the momentum hasn’t slowed. New products tied to Ethereum are continuing to roll out, including structures that allow for staking yield to be wrapped into traditional investment vehicles.

That’s a meaningful step we need to zoom out and appreciate. It starts to position crypto not just as a degen speculative asset, but as something that can generate yield within familiar frameworks.

Be patient kings.

Global News & Geopolitics

It’s pretty unclear what the latest news is in regards to the conflict in Iran. There are constant mixed headlines and messages popping up online and it almost changes by the hour. There’s also a lot of he said she said going on between the US and Iran. The US says they want talks, then Iran says they were never approached for talks, etc. etc.

Recent reports indicate the US is actively considering a “final blow,” potentially involving ground troops and large scale bombings in Iran according to Axios (Unusual Whales).

Air strikes are still active and Iran is moving to bolster Kharg Island. Kharg, for context, is not just another target on the map. It is the critical export artery for Iranian oil, handling the overwhelming majority of the country’s crude shipments. Any serious disruption there would immediately ripple through global energy markets, tightening supply and injecting even more volatility into an already sketchy macro backdrop.

The Pentagon also recently announced that the U.S. Army is raising its maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42 and also loosening restrictions around prior marijuana offenses. Kind of seems like they are preparing for something big.

Below you can see an insane video of a US Navy F-18 narrowly dodging an Iranian MANPADS missile yesterday.

Share ARB Letter

• An 83-year-old veteran was randomly shoved onto NYC subway tracks by an illegal immigrant and died from his injuries

• The Pentagon has estimated only 23% of young Americans (17-24) are eligible to serve in US military mainly due to poor academic performance on testing, obesity, and criminal records (ABC)

• Various reports indicate over one million Iranian fighters have been prepared for a possible ground war with the United States (BRICs News)

• The Olympics have banned ‘Transgender’ women from competing (InsiderWire)

• Iran's IRGC has lowered the minimum age for war-related support roles to 12 years old (BRICs News)

• In most of the most upsetting stories of the last several years a gang-rape victim, Noelia Castillo Ramos who is 25, is now set to die by euthanasia in Spain after jumping off a roof in suicide attempt that left her paralyzed. She was in a state-supervised centre for vulnerable youth in 2022 when she was gang-raped by three men (BBC).

For now we wait to see if there are any escalations in the Middle East in the coming days.

My suggestion? Go outside. Go workout. Do something productive that gets you away from doomscrolling and watching your portfolio constantly.

Shorter one today guys.

Have a great end to the week. Based on the results of the polls maybe we will run a test post on Saturday morning. Next week we dive into a refresher on making money online.

See you guys on X and the Discord chat.

Andy

Leave a comment

One of my favorite “areas” to write about since starting this years ago is the self development area and HOW that relates to all the economic, political, and social topics we cover here.

In the early days of Arb Letter posts like 10 Ways to Improve Your Life Overnight and How to Become Sovereign & Ungovernable did absolute numbers. These went out in the years after Covid when I think quite a few people were feeling lost, off track, or in need of renewed inspiration to get what they wanted out of life.

Now in the Spring of 2026, I think the core lessons in those guides are worth revisiting, primarily because of just how batshit crazy the world has become.

I feel very strongly about helping others, because I have changed my life by incorporating the same dynamics and approaches I talk about here.

I worked in corporate for 9 years until I had built up Arb Letter and my online businesses to the point where I could walk away. It doesn’t mean I am done with a “day job” (I work more now) but it does mean I can spend 100% of my time on the things I want to. More importantly, I now own my schedule and I am working for myself, not shareholders or executives eager to cut a role under the guise of AI or because of politics.

This isn’t the only path to success or financial achievement, but I can tell you now I am the most “fulfilled” I have ever been. My “mission” has never been more clear. I can see what matters in my life with much more clarity now.

Following that traditional path was stifling, the modern political agenda injected into the workplace wore on me daily. It kept me locked into tunnel vision, unable to fully explore everything I wanted to spend my time learning or doing.

Now years later doing my own thing, I am looking at our world since Covid and it has become evident to me that “noise” is at an all time high right now.

Bullshit. Fluff. The stuff that doesn’t matter. Distractions. Fugazi. Brain rot.

And people are getting so wrapped up in it.

Politics. Pop culture. Epstein. Iran. The stock market ripping up one hour, down the next. The constant headlines about politics and the next major news cycle.

Subscribe now

It’s been exhausting for like 5 years now. I know I am not the only person burnt out by all the hype and information. At a certain point you have to step back and ask yourself what all of this is actually doing for you.

Is it making you sharper? Wealthier? More capable? Better positioned?

Or is it just filling your head with noise, pulling your attention in a hundred different directions, and leaving you stuck in the same place?

Because for most people, it’s the latter.

And once you see that clearly, you can’t really unsee it. This isn’t meant at all to be cynical. Sober yes. But not cynical.

There came a time in my life where I began to ruthlessly cut out noise. What do I mean by noise? Well it comes in all forms:

• Normie geared news headlines and topics (pop culture, slop, divisive news)

• Political slop

• Financial doomerism

• Advice from people not where you want to be in life

• Insults, doubters, naysayers

• Drama (family, coworkers, friends, etc.)

• Basically anything draining you of energy, preventing you from accomplishing things, or wasting your time

I probably really became conscious of it around 30 or when my wife and I had our first son. Having children of your own has a way of negating many other energy drainers and irrelevant outside influences.

One of the reasons today’s post might be valuable to you is that the majority of major successes I have had in my life stem from not only going against the herd but by ruthlessly tuning out noise, seeing things for what they are, not what I wanted them to be.

I know, sounds kind of hardo, but it’s true.

Noise is 99% of the world now and it consumes the majority of people. They never quite move beyond it and therefore, never reach their full stride in any pursuit.

I am convinced without a doubt, that those who are going to see the greatest financial results and life satisfaction in the coming decade will be those who can expertly tune out everything that does not matter. Some noise is intentional.

It is there to mislead or occupy you.

Some of it, we become distracted with ourselves.

Today’s guide provides you with a template to cut through all of this crap and hone in on the levers that actually matter (and the ones that have the capacity to change your life for the better) during a time where the stakes are getting higher.

Focusing or not focusing on these is going to become the key difference maker between two groups of people: the ones who triumph in this wild new world and the ones who wake up down the line and realize they just fell short of average. Next stop normie eternity!

Today we are going to go over:

• How to cut through 99% of the noise and focus on what actually matters

• Why the old path to wealth is broken, and the 3 routes that still work

• How to position your money for what’s coming (AI, war, inflation, and on-chain markets)

• Why hard assets, real skills, and optionality are becoming non-negotiable

• The shift underway in society, power, and human behavior, and what history says comes next

If you read this and actually apply it, you will put yourself ahead of 90% of people over the next 3–5 years. Not because it’s revolutionary.

Because most people won’t do any of it.

You don’t need to be a genius to win from here.

But you do need to be focused, positioned, and willing to operate differently than the herd.

Everything below is what actually matters right now.

Let’s get into it.

Finance & Markets

Markets are volatile, policy is reactive, and confidence in the system is quietly eroding. We are even looking at 7% mortgages if things continue on the current path. Governments are trapped in a cycle of spending and money creation with no real exit. New wars are starting, shifting the global economy.

At the same time, technology is accelerating faster than institutions can adapt, reshaping jobs, capital flows, and entire industries.

All financial noise and fuckery aside.

A few things are super obvious at this point that you must understand to have a baseline.

Read more

Quick note for those of you who haven’t checked out completely for the weekend given the market movement we are seeing today and the capacity for some major shit going down over the weekend (it always comes after market close).

The vibes are bad right now. Ultra bearish.

Make sure you check out yesterday’s post covering the potential for a new major global event. Since I sent it out yesterday afternoon there’s already been new reported drone sightings over US bases and new reports from various news outlets that we might be deploying ground troops in Iran.

Subscribe now

Louisiana's Barksdale Air Force Base has had a massive jump in unauthorized drone sightings over the past few weeks.

“Between March 9-15, 2026, BAFB Security Forces observed multiple waves of 12-15 drones operating over sensitive areas of the installation, including the flight line, with aircraft displaying non-commercial signal characteristics, long-range control links and resistance to jamming”

This is where we store long-range B-52 bombers.

It is obvious that we are being cased and surveilled. But by who?

The CCP, Iran, lone wolfs?

I’d be shocked if something doesn’t end up happening soon.

Don’t get blindsided by the next major happening kings.

Economic & Market Headlines to Keep an Eye On

Markets got hit hard today, with broad-based selling driven by a combination of rising oil, higher yields, and fading hopes for rate cuts. The S&P 500 is down about 2%, tech stocks are murked, even defense names are taking a beating today.

The core driver remains the same guys. Oil + inflation means we stay higher for longer.

Crude has pushed back toward the $100 range as Iran tensions escalate, which then immediately feeds into inflation expectations and sent Treasury yields higher ( 4.3 -4.4%).

That combination continues to pressure equities, particularly growth and tech.

• Nearly half of Americans fear a “total economic collapse” within the next decade, according to a new YouGov poll (Cointelegraph)

• The UK's 10Y Government Bond Yield has officially risen above 5.00% for the first time since 2008 (Kobeissi Letter)

• "California housing crash fears soar as buying rates plummet below Great Recession level” (NYP/Unusual Whales)

• Gold prices are now on track for their largest weekly decline since 1983, down -11.2% (Kobeissi Letter)

• Senators reach deal with White House to resolve crypto stablecoin yield dispute with banks (WatcherGuru)

• Senators and the White House have agreed in principle on the crypto market-structure bill, with stablecoin interest limits and an April vote next (SolidIntel)

One of the more insane stories to hit markets this week came out of the DOJ, which charged three individuals including a co-founder tied to Super Micro Computer , in what amounts to a $2.5 billion AI chip smuggling operation.

Talk about illegal size.

Share ARB Letter

At a high level, the scheme allegedly involved purchasing U.S.-built servers loaded with advanced AI chips (widely believed to be Nvidia-powered), and then quietly diverting them to China in violation of U.S. export controls.

Defendants allegedly used shell companies, fake end users, and intermediary countries to mask the final destination of shipments.

To pass inspections, they staged thousands of “dummy servers” which were non-functional replicas, while the real units had already been sent overseas. In some cases, labels and serial numbers were reportedly removed and reapplied using tools as simple as a hair dryer to make everything appear compliant lmao.

Stock is murked today, down about 30%. Might be an interesting buy at some point once the dust has settled.

Today into close I am watching my drone names closely including and . If you guys read the guides over the past few weeks and have no exposure might be a good day to get some cheap shares. earnings are on 3/25 and the vibes seem particularly bullish given recent partnerships and revenue expectations.

Hopefully we get a clear new direction on this conflict by the end of next week but unfortunately all signs point towards this conflict lasting much longer than people initially thought.

Bitcoin is holding up pretty well all things considered.

She is sitting right around the $70,000 range while Ethereum sits right around $2,100.

Alt and meme momentum from last week is stalled for now.

Global Updates

Markets and global confidence are faltering today with multiple reports emerging of US President Donald Trump considering the use of ground troops in Iran. This would be literal worse case for our bags, and it is one of the reasons you are starting to see rumors of reinstating a draft float around online.

While no formal decision appears to have been made yet, the U.S. is already ramping up its military presence in the region, with additional troops and assets being positioned as a contingency. There are reports of as many as 15,000 marines en route to the region.

At the same time, we have discussions around potential strikes on critical infrastructure and key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz that are beginning to surface, which would mark a significant escalation. Oil would likely go even higher.

It definitely seems confirmed at this point, this administration has bitten off more than it can chew.

Subscribe now

• An Elbit factory was set ablaze in the Czech Republic by an "internationalist underground network" calling themselves the "the Earthquake Faction."

• The US Senate voted to block funding for DHS and TSA Friday

• Chuck Norris has died at the age of 86. It’s over bros

• Two suspected Iranian spies were arrested after attempting to enter Britain’s nuclear missile base (US Sun)

• US Attorney General Pam Bondi said on X this morning: “Today, we sued

  Harvard University for enabling and even encouraging antisemitism on its campus”

• The IEA warned this week that the Iran war is the biggest threat to global energy supply in history (BRICS News)

• Essex Police in the UK paused the use of live facial recognition cameras due to racial bias concerns (SkyNews)

• According to the French newspaper Le Monde, the near-exact location of the French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) was publicly exposed on March 13, when a naval officer utilized the online physical exercise tracker Strava to log his run on the deck of the carrier. Imagine (OSINT Defender)

• "At least 107 fuel stations across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia have run out of diesel as panic buying has outstripped supply, premier Chris Minns said today” (ArgusMedia)

If you weren’t paying attention or on X today you might miss it but Secretary of War Pete Hegseth took to the internet to drop a very interesting update.

Refer a friend

The Department of Defense is now extending the window for service members who were discharged (or left) over COVID-19 vaccine mandates to rejoin the US military through April 2027.

Interesting, despite his efforts to make it sound purely like an attempt to right a Biden era wrong.

Want to know what this suggests beneath the surface?

• If everything was fine from a manpower standpoint, this wouldn’t be necessary

• They want experienced personnel back quickly

• It is a subtle escalation prep signal

If I had to venture a guess, they’re going to do boots on the ground at some point. And the major concern there is that China and Russia see that as a major escalation and threat to their ambition in the region. It will be an absolute clusterf*ck.

But one day at a time.

Have a great weekend, not a bad time to just unplug from the chaos of the world right now and put your phone down. If anything super big goes down we will be sure to send out an emergency post.

See you guys next week for a look at airline stocks and a quick update on crypto.

Andy

Leave a comment

Do you hear that?

It’s the sound of an incoming Arbitrage Andy schizo rant.

I’d venture to guess that one of the reasons why I have accumulated so many followers over the years is that I rarely have an issue with calling things out for what they are.

It’s been a differentiator for my brand and presence online, even if it has come with the occasional headaches (shadowbanning, reach throttling, lost ad deals, etc.).

If you haven’t figured out that the truth is unpopular by now I don’t know what to tell you brother.

For those new to Arb Letter or my writing/posting style, there’s a good deal of irony when we call something a schizo rant.

The entire point is that the rant or piece is very much NOT schizo (though it might appear to be for normies who have no clue what is going on). It is an attempt to diagnose exactly what is going on behind all of the lies, propaganda, deceit, and distractions present in the world and then prepare accordingly.

I’m not going to take the time before we dive in today to recount the virtually endless list of conspiracy theories or concepts that were ultimately proven to be true after years or decades of demonization.

Whether it’s wars, Covid lies, JFKs death, Epstein theories, government technology, cloud seeding/weather modification, social initiatives, etc. from where we sit in March of 2026, the list just keeps growing and the trend is clear.

The public is almost never told the truth and worse, the gaslighting is enough to literally make certain people go crazy.

Subscribe now

And because of recent events there is a unique sense of unease right now if you are paying attention. I said recently I hadn’t really gotten the same feeling I had days before NYC shutdown for Covid, but this week I think that is a safe comparison.

In the last month:

• Former President Barack Obama sparked viral interest in February 2026 by stating on a podcast that "aliens are real”

• Shortly after President Donald Trump said that he's directing the Pentagon and other government agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrials and UFOs because of "tremendous interest”. Polymarket odds of a government disclosure before 2027 sit around 20%

• We shared this Monday: Retired Air Force major general William Neil McCasland, who had historical ties to UFO theories/projects (worked at the research lab at Wright-Patterson, some of the Pentagon’s most advanced aerospace research), disappeared without a trace on February 27th. Check out TheSentinel post on Aerospace engineer Monica Jacinto Reza who was the co-inventor of a key U.S. rocket alloy and who worked under McCasland. She vanished while hiking in 2025

• Robert Salas, a former U.S. Air Force missile launch officer, said recently on a podcast (after other disclosures) that in 1967 at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, a UFO disabled nuclear missiles saying 10 Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles under his supervision suddenly went offline, making them impossible to launch.

• Multiple drones were spotted this week near Fort Lesley J. McNair, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth are living

• The US Government quietly registered the internet domain aliens.gov this week

• Security threats, attack attempts, and terror threats are skyrocketing across the US and globe in the aftermath of the attacks on Iran

• Air quality alerts were issued across multiple U.S. states, including Oregon, Arizona, and Georgia, as dangerous levels of fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) raised concerns over respiratory and cardiovascular health risks

• The U.S. intelligence community’s latest threat assessment makes it clear that the global threat environment is intensifying across multiple fronts at once, including terrorism, cyber attacks, foreign intelligence operations, and infrastructure targeting

It’s true the classic online trope of “something is coming” or “better prepare now” gets exhaustive. Doom posting accounts hungry for engagement and cheap likes, love to tease out major world altering news alerts or events.

However now I am starting to feel something is quite off.

I cannot shake the feeling. It doesn’t mean there’s going to be a cataclysmic event, but I just get the vibe that things are falling out of control again.

Periods of instability, confusion, and rising tension are often followed by attempts to regain control, reframe the narrative, and re anchor public perception. Sometimes that comes through policy.

Sometimes through media. Sometimes through events themselves.

To me that’s the part worth paying attention to.

Because whether you believe in any one theory or not is almost irrelevant, what matters is understanding the environment we’re in, and the types of outcomes that environment tends to produce.

Let’s dive in.

2026 Is Going to be Historical

2026 is already a shit show. War in Iran. Stubborn inflation. The immigration/ICE protests we saw earlier in the year. Housing is in an awful place. AI is accelerating layoffs.

I could (and may at some point) write a novel on some of the topics we will cover today, but for time and clarity’s sake, I am going to attempt to be as direct as possible while incorporating all elements I think are necessary to grasping what’s going on (and what might be happening).

The war in Iran is probably the most important/pivotal event to happen since the instances of political violence in the US (ICE shootings, Charlie Kirk, Trump attempts, BLM/Antifa summer of love) and the Covid pandemic.

And you might say “Andy” why?

I say that because these are events in which normal well adjusted people could sense that we were (and are) close to going off the rails. When there is no going back to “normal”.

Covid reshaped the entire world. I am not going to make this a Covid victory lap, despite being right about virtually every component of it (even those labeled extremists takes at the time). But the reality is, the world is forever changed since covid.

Subscribe now

There is no going back. I know many people want to just forget it all, but for those of us that saw it for what it was, that feels too convenient. A cop out of ridiculous proportions based on what happened.

People showed their true colors.

Institutions and governments lied at scale and gaslighted.

Markets were manipulated for profit.

Wealth gaps grew.

Fraud took place.

People took experimental vaccines with little testing.

Children were forced to take these shots. (as you can see that is working out wonderfully).

Doctors got paid to push them.

People were mentally mind f*cked (and many still don’t grasp how this impacted them). They became subservient. They lost autonomy.

People turned on each other like animals, especially the ones who did not conform.

Then it was all over. Move on! Nothing to see here! See you next time!

During and after the pandemic, political violence surged. Had Trump been murdered, it is very likely there would have been widespread violence across the US. After Charlie Kirk was murdered, many people finally realized just how serious the partisan divide was and is inside the United States.

All of these events were turning points (including the mass importation of tens of millions of illegals under Biden).

The War in Iran is no different.

There are multiple ways in which this could spiral out of control and change the world yet again. Some are blindly supporting it.

Most people can’t even articulate why or how we got into this mess, completely unaware of the second and third order consequences that could come out of it. The World Health Organization announced just this week that they are preparing for a possible nuclear incident if Iran war escalates.

At the same time, Russia has openly condemned the strikes and is calling for de escalation while quietly maintaining its strategic ties to Iran, and China is walking a careful line, publicly neutral, but focused on protecting its energy interests and maintaining access to Middle Eastern supply.

Behind the scenes though, both countries appear to be positioning themselves to benefit from instability without being pulled directly into conflict, which only adds another layer of complexity to an already fragile situation for the US.

Joe Kent resigned this week as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center citing his belief that Iran posed no imminent threat and the conflict was unjustified. There was no BIG threat to the US homeland and no evidence of nuclear capability from Iran.

On his first interview since the announcement on Tucker Carlson, Kent gets into some pretty spicy topics including who he thinks sits at the center of this mess and why the US had its hand forced to intervene in Iran.

I highly recommend you watch it, even if you aren’t a fan of Tucker, as it is particularly illuminating.

What stands out to me isn’t any one of these events in isolation, it’s the convergence of all of them at once along with the developments I listed in the introduction section.

When geopolitical tension/wars, domestic security threats, strange aerial activity, and official intelligence warnings all begin stacking on top of each other, it creates an environment that feels eerily familiar to me.

Not identical to past events, but 100% rhyming with them.

And if you’ve been paying attention long enough, you know that these kinds of environments tend to precede something larger, whether that’s a market shock, a geopolitical escalation, or a narrative defining event designed to reset the playing field.

So what might that be?

Let’s break it down.

Read more

Happy hump day and belated St Patrick’s day for those who partake.

Yesterday we dropped a piece on Drones, the future of warfare, and the companies worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years if you want exposure to this growing global trend. I think we covered 15 or so tickers including which seems to be pumping leading into earnings.

People keep DMing or messaging me asking for defense names or trade ideas. Guys, that’s the entire point of the deeper guides. I put out the plays ahead of time. Some, like or absolutely print.

Stop missing them and just subscribe brothers!

We will have another dropping Friday morning.

In addition to recent bullish momentum from their recent deal with Palantir and World View to build a next-gen AI-powered ISR, Ondas acquired INDO Earth Moving Ltd., expanding its footprint into critical infrastructure, logistics, and heavy equipment operations tied to defense and industrial use cases.

As part of its long-term strategy, Ondas plans to pursue future upgrades of engineering vehicles into robotic and autonomous platforms, integrating technologies such as remote operation, autonomous navigation, advanced perception systems, and mission automation software. The acquisition also creates strong synergies across Ondas' growing portfolio of autonomous defense technologies.

Make sure to watch it into week end. Just this morning Ondas and Heidelberg established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems Joint Venture, which they say is set to advance the European drone defense industry.

Today we’ve got a good amount to cover across crypto, global news, and markets.

And don’t worry I am storing up a solid schizo rant before month end as well. There’s enough content, that’s for sure. I will expand on it soon, but there’s a really strange blend of events/themes playing out online in the last two weeks or so:

• Retired Air Force major general William Neil McCasland, who had historical ties to UFO theories/projects (worked at the research lab at Wright-Patterson, some of the Pentagon's most advanced aerospace research), disappeared without a trace on February 27th. Check out post on Aerospace engineer Monica Jacinto Reza who was the co-inventor of a key U.S. rocket alloy and who worked under McCasland. She vanished while hiking in 2025.

• President Donald Trump said on February 20th that he's directing the Pentagon and other government agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrials and UFOs because of "tremendous interest." (AP/PBS)

• Strange comets have been reported being seen on various continents and over major cities including Los Angeles, New York City, Ohio, and Dallas

• Renewed online and media attention on Monday focused on files declassified in 2003 related to weather modification under US President Lyndon B Johnson. Long story short? Weather modification is real, the funding for this program under Johnson during Vietnam was 4X higher than people thought, and chemicals were released and sprayed into earth’s atmosphere (chemical seeding of hurricanes and monsoons)

Some folks think we are drifting towards some type of Covid level event. Except this time it’s not some Chinese bioweapon Fauci & Co. funded but potentially a new fear campaign. Drones, war with Iran, false flags, UFO “disclosures” from our government? I don’t really know.

But I can smell it coming a mile away.

Subscribe now

Equities & Markets

Heading into this morning’s PPI print, equity and capital markets were already on shaky footing, caught between a slight pullback in oil prices and growing concern that inflation wasn’t cooling as expected.

US PPI rose to 3.4% this morning putting a damper on any chance of upcoming rate cuts. Odds are now at 94% for no change on Polymarket.

At 2:30 p.m. ET, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host the live FOMC press conference. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in tone around inflation and the path of rates, particularly whether the Fed signals it is closer to easing or remains firmly in a higher for longer stance.

• The US national debt reached a new all-time high of $39 trillion! Money printing will continue until morale improves (and then it will keep continuing forever!)

• The Chinese government has asked exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen potassium fertilizer blends (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)

• OpenAI has partnered with AWS to support cloud infrastructure for government contracts (Polymarket Money)

• The 30-Year Mortgage Rate jumped to 6.86%, the highest level since November (BarChart)

• Disney CEO Bob Iger is set to resign

• 49% of U.S. residents struggle to pay rent or mortgages, per Redfin/Unusual Whales)

• US recession odds have hit 48.6%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic (Moody’s/Coin Telegraph)

• The Kobeissi Letter reported this morning that Iraq has said gas supplies from Iran have been completed halted following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field. This is the world's largest natural gas reserve and is jointly operated by Iran and Qatar. Natural gas is stabilizing around $3

I would expect some chop today which could be a solid opportunity to pick up some names you have been keeping an eye on.

Right now I am watching my calls which I intend to hold through earnings next week. Additionally I have added shares of $KRKNF. Outside that, I have added some and .

Precious metals have been volatile this week, with the divergence between gold and silver highlighting how various macro forces are currently overpowering the typical “safe haven” narrative. Interesting to see Bitcoin decouple.

Gold has come under pressure primarily due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising rate expectations, which increase the opportunity cost of holding any non yielding assets while putting a little damper on global demand.

At the same time, we have higher oil prices and hotter inflation data reinforcing a “higher for longer” Fed outlook.

Bitcoin Pumping & Alts Showing Some Life

The orange coin has gone on a nice little run (although it is softening right now) and crypto sentiment seems to be shifting quickly online.

Bitcoin has continued the ascent it has demonstrated throughout this Iran debacle, pumping up to the $76,000 level recently.

What is particularly interesting to see is Ethereum rallying. After lagging for much of the year, ETH is now starting to catch up aggressively, likely driven by a mix of capital rotating out of Bitcoin into higher beta plays, renewed institutional interest, and improving sentiment across altcoins. Well overdue. We will see if it continues.

On top of some solid price action, we continue to see some positives on the regulatory side as well. The regulatory tone around crypto continues to shift in a quietly bullish direction, with policymakers increasingly moving toward a “digital commodities vs securities” framework rather than treating the entire asset class as securities.

Share ARB Letter

Assets that are deemed sufficiently decentralized, like Bitcoin and increasingly Ethereum, fall into what we call the “digital commodity” bucket, meaning lighter oversight, clearer rules, and far easier access for institutional capital (which is good).

This effectively creates a big green light for ETFs, pensions, and large allocators to gain exposure without the same traditional legal overhang that has suppressed the space for years. Ultra giga bullish kings.

Also. Some solid strength from HYPE, LINK, AVAX, and other alt coins over the last week or so. Could be a good time to begin preparing your shopping lists.

• PayPal officially enables stablecoin access in 70 countries

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady inflows, with hundreds of millions flowing in over the past week

• Mastercard is acquiring crypto infrastructure firm BVNK in a deal worth up to $1.8B

• BlackRock is pushing further into digital assets globally, including expanding Ethereum exposure and rolling out new crypto-linked products

• Trade.xyz on X (decentralized, non-custodial trading platform) announced this week: S&P Dow Jones Indices and trade[XYZ] have joined forces to launch the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract, available exclusively on Hyperliquid

• Binance saw a $2.2B USDT inflow, the largest since Nov 2025, per CryptoQuant (CoinTelegraph)

We will talk more about HYPE Hyperliquid on Friday.

Subscribe now

Global News & Geopolitics

The U.S. Israel conflict with Iran continues to escalate, with strikes now targeting critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including oil fields, ports, and gas facilities.

Oil is the big question and the headwind to equities breaking free in my opinion as prices have surged back above $100/$110 range, with a handful of pretty credible scenarios pointing to significantly higher levels if the supply disruptions persist.

Trump just issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to attempt to curb oil prices. For those unfamiliar, the Jones Act requires that goods transported between U.S. ports be carried on U.S. built, U.S. owned, and U.S. crewed vessels, which significantly limits domestic shipping capacity and drives up costs.

• Joe Kent, Director if the National Counterterrorism Center said on X today: After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby

• Kim Jong Un won North Korea's parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote. We are all wondering what has happened to the .07% lmao

• U.S. airlines are now warning of rising cost pressure and potential disruptions, as jet fuel prices spike, with major carriers already reviewing forecasts and adjusting expectations (might be an interesting market play to be had here, stand by for an update next week)

• Europe is ramping defense spending further, with multiple NATO members accelerating procurement timelines and expanding budgets amid ongoing Russia concerns

• In South America, Argentina is pushing aggressive economic reforms, including currency liberalization and austerity measures

• Japan is continuing its military normalization, boosting defense budgets and expanding capabilities in response to regional threats

• There was a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in Cuba early yesterday morning

Share ARB Letter

What was initially a contained exchange in the Middle East is now evolving into a broader regional confrontation, with increasing pressure on energy infrastructure and key shipping routes. At the same time, there are few clear signs of de escalation which sucks for the time being.

Diplomatic pathways appear limited, and both sides are signaling a willingness to continue operations, especially Iran. You have to admit that their delusional self confidence is impressive.

From a market perspective, escalation is obviously the key variable.

A reporter recently asked Trump recently:

“Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?”

And Trump responded "No, I'm not afraid of anything."

So it is not off the table and in my opinion, would be the worst case scenario barring a nuclear exchange.

I think markets are largely beginning to price a regime shift in global risk. A new reality if you will for the state of global affairs. Across that backdrop you have terrorism, new potential military activity by the US (Cuba?), and upcoming midterms in the United States.

Going to be a volatile second half of 2026.

Random side note as I take down another two shots of espresso and pop a nice peppermint upper decky. Two of the best things I ever did:

• Deleting LinkedIn

• Paying an accountant to do taxes

See you guys Friday morning. Make sure to follow on X and on Discord if you want to keep up with the latest trade ideas and news updates we are all following.

Andy

Leave a comment

As I write this Sunday evening, there’s some interesting developments afoot.

Gold has continued to soften while Bitcoin has moved back to the $73,000 range. Oil is up again after the US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island.

But today I want to address the elephant in the room (and ideally before market open).

One of the biggest military revolutions happening right now isn’t nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, or even hypersonic missiles.

It’s drones. Not only does it offer us an insane financial opportunity in the coming years but all of the tech that we see exploding alongside it (and the drones themselves) is going to change the face of warfare and society permanently.

Defense spending in general is exploding. The U.S. alone is now spending over $900 billion annually on defense, with an increasing share going toward:

• autonomous systems

• counter-drone defenses

• AI battlefield intelligence

• unmanned aerial platforms

The U.S. defense budget for FY2026 is projected to exceed $1 trillion.

You want to fade that kind of spend? Buy some more Coca Cola shares?

Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and NATO countries are all rapidly expanding their drone programs. While Ukraine may have taken the back seat to more recent conflict in Venezuela and now the Middle East, it is still chugging along.

Ukraine turned drones into what many analysts call “precision mass.”

Cheap FPV (First-Person View) drones that often cost just a few hundred dollars, are now destroying tanks, artillery systems, and armored vehicles worth millions. Production scaled rapidly. Ukraine has already produced millions of drones, with plans to manufacture several million per year as their war continues.

Subscribe now

In Venezuela with the US raid to capture Maduro, ahead of the ground operation, unmanned systems were used for surveillance, intelligence gathering, and precision strikes against key military infrastructure such as radar systems and air defenses.

These platforms helped map the battlefield and clear a path for the helicopters and special operations forces that ultimately carried out the assault.

Now in the revived Middle East conflict, Iran is launching Shahed drones at will, Israel is launching precision strikes, and the US is demonstrating some serious military capability in multiple regions.

This weekend the defense sector and drone space saw some major developments.

Defense startup Anduril Industries secured a U.S. Army contract worth up to $20 billion, focused on autonomous systems and AI-driven battlefield technology, one of the clearest signals yet that the Pentagon is betting heavily on drones and autonomy.

Taiwan is another flashpoint where drones are quickly becoming central to modern warfare (especially this week with reports of posturing in the region).

China has been steadily increasing military pressure around the island over the last three weeks and over the last year conducting large scale exercises that simulate blockades and coordinated air and naval attacks. Chinese fighter jets and warships now routinely operate near Taiwan’s airspace and waters, often in large numbers, in what most analysts view as rehearsals for a potential future conflict.

Yeah, people have been saying this is inevitable for some time, BUT with the recent Iran developments and pressure on Chinese oil now, a new variable enters that standoff.

Taiwan has responded by accelerating its asymmetric defense strategy, investing heavily in drones, loitering munitions, and autonomous systems.

Rather than trying to match China ship for ship or tank for tank, the goal seems to be to deploy large swarms of cheap, expendable drones capable of targeting landing craft, armored vehicles, and supply lines during any attempted invasion.

You can’t read a single story about modern geopolitics or conflict without drones popping up. Last week Ondas Holdings announced a strategic partnership with Palantir and aerospace firm World View aimed at building an AI enabled intelligence and surveillance platform that connects drones, ground systems, and high-altitude sensors into a unified network.

Subscribe now

We even got an FBI bulletin alleging that Iranian at one point had planned strikes on California utilizing drones. Remember the big drone debacle in New Jersey we never got a single answer on?

This all comes amid reports of a new Trump administration UFO disclosure coming.

I only mention that because the intersection of UFOs, drones, and advanced military tech keeps ramping up in public discourse. Think about it, if we know about Reapers and basic drones, what kind of tech do we not know about?

On top of everything else I talk about here regularly that make up the future of finance, markets, and capitalism (tokenization, crypto, AI, tech, etc.) it is evident to me now that defense and exposure to drones and adjacent technology is table stakes at this point. The growth is going to be explosive (no pun intended).

You’re no longer just betting on major defense contractors to play in the sandbox forever or for Halliburton to finance every aspect of a 15 year conflict.

The industry is being turbocharged quickly at a time when most normies are just upset the S&P is wobbly or crypto is down. I can see it online. The hype and attention are growing….

Let’s put some numbers out there.

The global military drone market is estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars today and could approach $100 billion over the next decade as defense spending shifts toward unmanned systems and autonomous warfare (Grand View Research).

When you include the broader ecosystem, all the commercial drones, sensors, autonomy software, counter-drone systems, and supporting infrastructure, the overall global drone market could exceed $100 billion by 2030 and potentially reach well north of $150 billion as adoption accelerates (Military Embedded Systems/ GlobeNewswire).

We are going to see drones used in many different capacities in our lifetimes so it makes sense to ensure you are positioned to capture some of the upside.

Cheap, autonomous, AI enabled drones are rapidly reshaping how wars are fought. And the implications for investors (and the world we live in) are massive. Don’t pass this up as a fad or “hype” cycle.

We were ahead of the broader defense rally over the last two years making subs some solid gains, but today I want to expand past the classic plays of the global war on terror and get into drone specific companies.

Some of these companies are small caps most investors have never heard of. Others are quietly becoming the backbone of the next generation of warfare.

Let’s break down the companies worth watching.

Read more

Hope this week has been solid.

On Tuesday I dropped a fresh set of stock picks for Spring 2026 covering AI, Defense, Energy, Tech, and more.

The market fire sales are continuing for now, so don’t miss out on some potential rippers. is a name we’ve touched on recently that I think is about to send. You can check the full list out below:

Subscribe now

Today we have some important major stories to cover.

Strait of Hormuz & Iran Updates

A development worth watching is the growing concern around the Strait of Hormuz and the potential use of naval mines.

U.S. intelligence and defense officials have warned that Iran could deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz if the conflict escalates further. As of last night US officials are saying that Iran HAS laid mines in Strait of Hormuz according to the WSJ.

Whether that is actually true is beyond me. Could just be some classic war time propaganda.

BUT.

By now you should know that the strait is one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world, with roughly 20% of global oil supply passing through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. There’s already some big disruption in the region, in the video below you can see Iranian forces hit a U.S. owned oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.

Mining the strait would be one of Iran’s most effective asymmetric tools. A sort of flip the chess board over move because you are getting bodied so hard.

For those that don’t know naval mines are relatively cheap, difficult to detect, and can force commercial shipping to halt while minesweeping operations take place. Even a limited mining campaign could send insurance costs for tankers soaring and disrupt energy flows through the Persian Gulf.

Share ARB Letter

This morning the Wall Street Journal reported that "Reopening the strait, military analysts say, may require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline."

Right now there’s about a 50% chance on Polymarket of the Strait returns to normal by April 30th.

Iran's ‌new ⁠supreme ⁠leader for the time being, Mojtaba Khamenei, released a statement this morning with a pretty hardline sentiment. He wants US bases out of the region and called for the Strait to be closed. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said that it is possible US naval vessels will start escorts before the end of this month.

If Iran does end up mining the strait you can pretty much guarantee this conflict lasts until late Spring early summer, as the clean up and ramifications from it will take months to fully play out.

Iran Plan to Drone California?

The other day when I added a section to Arb Letter (and posted on Instagram) about the threat of terrorism, false flags, or other events in the US, a bunch of people threw hissy fits. Some said to go touch grass. Others got mad.

Classic cope behavior.

We’ve seen this same thing since Covid. People get mad when you tell them how the world is changing.

They want it to all be sunshine and rainbows. They like to be the “nothing ever happens bros” or they just make disagreeing or downplaying things a personality.

They’re having a few tough years. Say a prayer for em.

One of the more bizarre headlines floating around this week involves a report that the FBI circulated to law-enforcement agencies in California warning that Iran had at least considered the possibility of launching drones at the U.S. West Coast.

The concept, according to the intelligence bulletin, would involve launching attack drones from a vessel positioned offshore, essentially using a commercial or disguised ship as a launch platform. A shipping vessel, fishing boat, etc.

They could even be launched from South of the Border or within American cities, Iran’s connections with Mexico and nations in South America leads to some uncomfortable truths about the legitimacy of this threat.

But things gets weirder. Four Skydio X10D Drone systems were stolen from Fort Campbell in Kentucky back in late November, Army investigators are offering a reward of up to $5,000 for help identifying the perpetrators.

Some are claiming this is a psy op or even conditioning for an eventual false flag.

Subscribe now

Even if a drone attack on California or any American state or city might seem implausible (it’s probably not), other threats have proven not to be so far.

The temperature is rising.

Since the invasion of Iran:

• Austin shooting - A gunman (wearing a “Property of Allah” T Shirt and another with an Iranian flag) opened fire on a crowded nightlife district, leaving multiple people dead and several more injured.

• Upper East Side bomb - An explosive device was thrown outside the NYC mayor Mamdani’s residence during anti war demonstrations. The FBI arrested two individuals later found to have been radicalized by ISIS

• Flights grounded - Airlines have begun canceling and rerouting flights across parts of the Middle East as security concerns escalate with multiple bomb threats and scares. Reagan Airport this morning announced on X:

  Around 9 a.m., a suspicious package was located in a break room. The Airports Authority police established a perimeter for safety until the item can be cleared, that included moving passengers out of the D Concourse. We will let you know when we have an update.

• Protests turning violent - Demonstrations tied to the conflict have erupted in several major cities, with arrests and clashes reported

• Domestic security warnings - Law enforcement agencies are increasingly warning about the risk of lone actor or copycat attacks tied to the conflict

This reaction and set of events was almost immediate.

Ted Cruz said this week the United States should prepare for terrorist attacks from Iranian sleeper cells. “The danger has never been higher than right now.” Tucker Carlson said recently on his show: “The neocons know air strikes won't topple Iran. They need American ground troops. And the only way they will get them is by waiting for or manufacturing another 9/11 style terror attack on US soil to justify it.”

I don’t share these updates or give you guys color on this to be edgy or extreme, I do it because the majority of normies don’t think about things like this. I can tell you right now, all it would take is a single lone wolf actor or drone attack in my suburban town to plunge the entire thing into chaos.

Really makes you think about how soft the homeland has become and how vulnerable we might be. Imagine a handful of incidents across the country.

With the porous open border we had for years all of these threats are amplified. That can be true in addition to politicians wanting to justify further action in Iran. On top of that we have the DHS shutdown which is causing TSA agents to quit and go months without pay.

Don’t let all of this drive you nuts, but also realize it’s not that far fetched that we see more incidents in the coming weeks.

In the infamous words of Sgt. Griggs from Call of Duty 4 “Stay Frosty”.

Other Global News Updates

• The U.S. medical tech company, Stryker was hit by a cyberattack by an Iranian linked hacker group

• The National Guard Bureau has announced the activation of the 260th Special Purpose Brigade within the Washington D.C. Army National Guard (OSINT Defender)

• Various reports now indicate the Pentagon has spent more than $11.3 billion in the first 6 days of the war against Iran

• A laundry fire on the US aircraft carrier USS Ford has injured two the US military says (InsiderPaper)

Financial Markets

Major US indices are off to a rough start this morning as oil continues to surge (trading around $95). It would seem some panic is beginning.

Equities have been extremely choppy as traders start to price in the possibility that higher energy prices could keep inflation sticky and delay the timeline for interest rate cuts.

Another interesting development this week involves the Pentagon moving deeper into the world of finance.

The Department of Defense is reportedly assembling an elite 30-person team of investment bankers pulled from firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America. Their goal is to help deploy roughly $200 billion into defense investments and acquisitions over the next three years.

Some of you keep asking why I am so bullish on defense.

Stop sleeping on our picks (you can find them here).

Subscribe now

Should be painfully obvious by now lol. Wall Street is increasingly being pulled directly into the national security playbook.

The initiative would effectively create an internal “economic defense unit” tasked with identifying strategic deals, financing defense companies, and directing capital toward industries considered critical to national security.

So sharpen up your resumes kings.

You might have a shot at a Lord of War Banker job soon.

• Private credit defaults are up 4x since 2024 (Illiquid Insights)

• is partnering with Ondas and World View to build an AI-enabled intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platform for defense and security customers (Polymarket Money)

  

• Profits returned to Private Equity investors are at a 16-year low (Unusual Whales/Bloomberg)

• Enterprise software firm Atlassian announces its laying off 10% of its workforce to restructure around AI (Polymarket)

• Deutsche Bank has disclosed approximately $30 billion in exposure to private credit in its recent annual report. Bank is down 6% today

Oil has been ripping higher this week as traders price in the risk that tensions in the Persian Gulf could escalate further. Brent briefly traded north of $100 after tanker attacks.

The situation has picked up even more attention after President Trump posted on Truth Social warning Iran against interfering with shipping in the Gulf, signaling that the U.S. is watching the waterway closely.

The Kobeissi Letter shard on X this morning: As US oil prices rise above $95/barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained for 3 months, US CPI inflation would rise to ~3.2%. This would put US inflation at its highest level since May 2024.

For now the market is essentially trading the “what if Hormuz gets messy” scenario and it definitely feels like what was intended to be quick limited strikes to incapacitate Iran is now bleeding into another drawn out conflict with no clear ending in sight.

Crypto

Crypto has been grinding through another volatile week.

Bitcoin spent most of the past several days chopping between roughly $66K and $70K, repeatedly testing the psychological $70K level but failing to break through it with conviction.

Every time it looks like momentum is building, another macro headline knocks it back although it is holding pretty steady all things considered.

Despite the macro chop large players continue to accumulate. One of the biggest corporate Bitcoin holders (Strategy) added tens of thousands of coins worth over a billion dollars recently, continuing a steady pattern of buying during volatility.

• BlackRock has debuted a staked Ether ETF, letting investors earn staking rewards alongside ETH price exposure (CoinTelegraph)

• Strategy has purchased another $1.3B of Bitcoin

• New investment products tied to AVAX are beginning to emerge as asset managers look beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum for the next wave of crypto exposure

• Exchanges and fintech platforms are exploring on-chain versions of traditional stocks, with companies like Nvidia and Tesla often cited as potential candidates for tokenized trading

Crypto is unlikely to give us a hint on its next move until the Iran debacle plays out. For now I am watching for a rally from Bitcoin.

ETH + alts are dormant for now. Which is an excellent time to research what you want exposure to when things clear up.

Have a great rest of the week guys. There’s a chance I drop another post before Monday if we see any major happenings in the Middle East. We will do another deep dive on crypto next week as well as a refresher post on online business.

Discord link is HERE for those interested. We are now closing in on 2,000 members.

Godspeed

Andy

Leave a comment

Trade With Polymarket

Protect Your Crypto With TREZOR

The weather is finally turning, sun is coming out, vibes are coming back. It’s cool to be a stoic winter arc size lord during the cold months but I would be lying to you if I said I didn’t immediately feel better now that we have had some spring weather and sun breaking through.

Despite all the madness in the world, there’s some financial opportunities to be had that I want to highlight today.

The timing is great right now.

Fear is at all time highs.

People are convinced nuclear weapons are going to detonate, private credit is about to implode, or we are about to enter a Covid level black swan event. In markets we are seeing some wild volatility across asset classes.

Oil is breaking necks every couple of hours, stocks are whipping back and forth intra day on every new headline, and people seem to either think a recession is imminent or the war in Iran is going to end by month end. Not a whole lot of in between.

And I get it, trust me. Things do seem pretty bizarre at the moment.

Even professional money managers are struggling to navigate the current market environment.

A volatile week driven by the escalating conflict with Iran delivered significant losses to several of the world’s largest hedge funds that are typically known for (or ideally known for) steady, risk-managed returns.

Multi strategy giants including Millennium, Balyasny Asset Management, and Point72 were all hit as sharp moves across equities, commodities, and macro assets whipsawed portfolios.

Subscribe now

Some of you are probably down from the highs (especially in crypto) or beat up and bloodied from a wrong pick or two. I know this because attention, engagement, and interaction in online posts across all platforms fluctuates when markets are down and people are taking Ls.

You could almost draw a direct correlation with when the S&P 500/Bitcoin falters.

But don’t let that be you. While it’s pretty much guaranteed to be another Blockbuster year for sketchy geopolitical events and weird societal shifts, markets are going to keep offering us new shots on goal to print money. If you haven’t noticed by now we keep following the same pattern:

• Massive fear inducing headlines → new ATHs lol

• TACO trades and tariff wars, then more upside

Because of this it is not the time to cut back on what your read, stop researching news names, or stop taking swings for the fences. If you can power through the volatile phases of the market and get some solid wins when most guys are panic selling or capitulating, you’re going to be in a very different position when the dust settles.

We have mid terms on the horizon, crypto quietly consolidating, and equity sectors choosing when they want to ignore the doom headlines and continue to melt higher.

Today we are going to cover some interesting names I think look particularly solid for 2026 across:

• Drone warfare / defense tech

• AI infrastructure

• Energy / nuclear

• Industrial / commodities

We’ve had some notable home-runs in Arb Letter when it comes to name picking and I appreciate you guys who have really crushed some of these trades shooting me messages.

It’s great to see.

That’s the entire point of all of this. Provide a little bit of straightforward, pragmatic context to cut out the market noise, take a position, and have your research and time spent get rewarded.

You don’t have to make this stuff super complicated. Our thesis for each of these names is simple: identify the major macro trends shaping the next few years and find companies positioned directly in the path of that demand. I would argue it is getting much easier to actually do this as an everyday investor.

To be fair there is a lot of noise, and I understand why some people fall short.

Modern warfare is rapidly shifting toward autonomous systems and drone technology. Artificial intelligence is driving an enormous (and utterly unprecedented) buildout of data centers and computing infrastructure.

Global electricity demand is rising quickly as countries electrify their economies and power the next generation of AI systems. And at the same time we have industrial reshoring (a big theme today) and geopolitical calamities that are pushing governments to invest heavily in energy, defense, and critical supply chains.

The companies we’re looking at today sit at the intersection of those themes and take advantage of the environment we find ourselves in.

Bottom line, I think they are locks.

With that, let’s get into the first name.

I don’t know about you, but I want some big time runners going into the spring.

Read more